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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on April 29th, 2023. John Brubaker's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Saturday RotoBallers, and happy baseball season! This is John Brubaker dropping some of my favorite plays for today's slate! I'm so excited that MLB DFS back, and here's a chance to start the season off on the right foot! We have a smaller slate tonight, with just five games on tap. Let's get right to it!
We don't have any slate differences today, which is always a good thing. That way I don't have to make selections that may be on one slate and not the other. I have big ideas for this slate, so let's get right to it. I want to note, my writeups will get a bit more detailed as the season goes on, as I'm still making adjustments to my projection model this early on in the season.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 4/29/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options, and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all of that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs LAA ($9,500 DK, $10,300 FD)
I'll start tonight's slate off with Corbin Burnes. Burnes (2-1, 4.55 ERA) is still waiting to get his 2023 season rolling, and this may be an "overpay" relative to how he's pitching this season. With just a five-game slate, it's more or less a coin flip between Burnes and Clayton Kershaw, but I'll lean toward Burnes here slightly. He projects to a 2.83 xFIP and 32.14% strikeout rate against an Angels offense that sits in the middle of the pack against right-handed pitching.
Yonny Chirinos, TB at CWS ($6,800 DK, $5,500 FD)
I'll take a look at Yonny Chirinos as an SP2 on DraftKings or value play here on FanDuel. This will be Chirinos's fourth appearance of the young season and just his first start. As I'm writing this, it's unclear just how deep Chirinos will go into this game, but he did start some games for Tampa in years past and was at least able to go deep enough to qualify for a win. He projects to a 3.10 xFIP and 19.14% strikeout rate tonight against a White Sox lineup that ranks in the bottom third in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Also consider: Nathan Eovaldi, Clayton Kershaw
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Walker - 1B, ARI vs. Noah Davis ($4,100 DK, $3,500 FD)
As far as hitters go, I'll start off with Christian Walker. Walker had a breakout season in 2022 but has gotten off to a slow start in 2023. He's hitting just .237 with three homers, a .289 wOBA, .672 OPS, and 78 wRC+. These aren't typical numbers of a guy that you'd want to be paying a premium on, but he's playing in Coors in a plus matchup against Noah Davis. He projects to a .346 wOBA and 39.3% hard contact rate in this one tonight.
William Contreras - C, LAA vs. Reid Detmers ($3,600 DK, $2,800 FD)
I'll take a look at a pair of Brewers next, starting with William Contreras. Contreras comes into tonight's game hitting .306 with a homer, .352 wOBA, .785 OPS, and a 121 wRC+. He's faced Detmers just twice in his career, going 0-1 with a walk. However, he projects really well (.351 wOBA, 38.69% hard contact rate) tonight, and is cheap enough for me to buy in tonight, especially at the catcher position.
Mike Brosseau - 3B, SD vs. Reid Detmers ($2,500 DK, $2,400 FD)
I'll take a look at Mike Brosseau for my second Brewer on the slate. Brosseau comes into this one hitting .256 with three homers, a .357 wOBA and .831 OPS, and 124 wRC+. Brosseau, a notorious "lefty killer" that DFS players like myself have been taking advantage of value-wise for years, hasn't faced Detmers yet in his career but does project to a .328 wOBA and 37.59% hard contact rate tonight, and is a steal on this slate.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Carroll - OF, ARI vs. Noah Davis ($5,600 DK, $4,000 FD)
As far as outfielders go, I'll head back out to Coors and take a look at Corbin Carroll to start us off. Carroll is a guy who most people are looking at to win NL Rookie of the Year in 2023 and comes into this one hitting .312 with four homers, an awesome .400 wOBA, .927 OPS, and 151 wRC+. He'll take on Noah Davis for the first time in his career, and projects to a .336 wOBA and 34.4% hard contact rate tonight.
Kris Bryant - OF, COL vs. Tommy Henry ($5,500 DK, $3,800 FD)
Sticking in Coors, I'll take a look at Kris Bryant against Arizona southpaw Tommy Henry tonight. Bryant is starting to find his stroke again in 2023, coming into this one hitting .309 with three homers and a .362 wOBA, also adding a .817 OPS and 113 wRC+. He's always had the platoon advantage against lefties, and projects to a .378 wOBA and 41.29% hard contact rate against Henry, who he'll see for the first time in his career.
Mookie Betts - OF, LAD vs. Jordan Montgomery ($5,300 DK, $3,800 FD)
I'll wrap things up tonight with Mookie Betts. Mookie hasn't been as hot to start the season as he has in years past, but he has hit four homers on the young season. He used to be a reverse splits guy, not hitting lefties as well as righties, and that shows in his previous matchups with Montgomery. He's just 2-11 against the lefty, but I'll back him tonight as my model projects him to a .398 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Colorado Rockies vs. Tommy Henry
I'm going to double up in Coors tonight. It only seems right, especially considering we have Yonny Chirinos in our back pocket as a value arm on this slate. The Rockies scored just one run last night but will look to bounce back tonight as they project to a 33.19% hard contact rate and a .311 wOBA against Tommy Henry. Henry allowed three earned runs in just 4.1 innings in his first start of the season, and I'll back the Rox despite their .293 wOBA and 68 wRC+ against lefties this season.
Favorite Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, C.J. Cron, Elias Diaz, Ryan McMahon
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Noah Davis
On the other side of the field, we'll look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unlike the Rockies, the Diamondbacks were able to put runs up on the board last night, scoring nine runs. They'll take on Noah Davis who is pitching very well this season, allowing just one earned in 9.2 innings across two starts in 2023. Arizona sits in the middle of the pack in terms of wOBA (.316) and wRC+ (96), but is definitely projected to overperform in Coors tonight, with a projected .344 wOBA and 32.9% hard contact rate.
Favorite Plays: Josh Rojas, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Pavin Smith
Also Consider: Milwaukee Brewers, Tampa Bay Rays
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