RADIO
It's a glorious Saturday and the NBA has treated us with seven games for the main slate tonight. The Celtics-Warriors game should be a gold mine for DFS production, but don't sleep on the Jazz-Nuggets affair as that one is projecting to be a shootout. Half of the teams in action are playing in the second half of back-to-back sets, so as always, stay tuned for injury updates and lineup scratches throughout the day. Let's get to it.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 12/4/22. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Damian Lillard, vs. MIN (FD: $9,700, DK: $10,100)
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!I primarily play tournament contests on FanDuel and DraftKings, and Lillard fits the profile well for tonight's slate. He's not going to be immensely popular at his price and with the other pay-up options we have at guard on this slate (Doncic, SGA, Curry, Haliburton). Still, he can hit a monster ceiling as he demonstrated on Thursday with 72.5 DK points with 40 real-life points against the Nuggets. The Nuggets allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards, but his opponent tonight allows even more as the Wolves allow the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. They struggle to defend the perimeter, and we know for a fact that Lillard can take full advantage of that type of defensive deficiency.
Marcus Smart, vs. GSW (FD: $6,400, DK: $6,100)
I love getting to a player like Smart in a game environment like the one we're treated to tonight. The Celtics-Warriors marquee matchup should be an incredible game to watch, but it also projects to be the top contest to target from a daily fantasy perspective. It's a pace-up game for the Celtics as the Warriors rank fourth in the NBA in pace, so there should be extra possessions available for both teams to rack up fantasy points. While you'd think the Warriors do a solid job defending guards, the stats say otherwise as they're allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Smart averages 1.00 FPTS/min with Horford and Time Lord off the floor, and we should take that all day at his projection of at least 35 minutes.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker, vs. DEN (DK: $3,100)
I'm not a big NAW guy, but as long as Lauri Markkanen remains out tonight, he has to be in consideration at a near-minimum salary on DraftKings. He played 25 minutes last night and put up 24.5 DK points, far exceeding 5x value. His price oddly dropped by $500 since, and we'll take that all day for a player who puts up 0.98 FPTS/min with Markkanen and Sexton off the floor this season. He's not an exciting play by any means, but his inclusion allows you to get to the upper-echelon players on a slate that's currently lacking in obvious, reliable value.
Also consider: Seth Curry, Monte Morris, Jaylen Nowell (tournaments), Alex Caruso, Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, Kyrie Irving
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Caris LeVert (FD: $5,000, DK: $4,400) DraftKings
This pick is contingent on Donovan Mitchell's status as LeVert would lose a lot of appeal if he were to be ruled in. If he's not, fire LeVert back up as a high-ceiling value play at the SG/SF position on DraftKings. He went off for 38.5 DK points over 37 minutes against the Kings without Spyda last night and there was room for more as he shot 9-for-21 from the field. LeVert is averaging a 23.2% usage rate and 1.06 FPTS/min with Mitchell and Love off the floor this season, and I don't need to tell you that facing the Thunder is a positive for any fantasy player. OKC is allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams this season.
Deni Avdija, vs. LAC (FD: $5,500, DK: $4,700)
It's boring, but Avdija is getting a ton of minutes and crushing value lately. He needs just 23.5 DK points to reach 5x value tonight and he has exceeded that total in each of his last three games, going for 32.25, 33.25, and 24.5 DK points. He has received 40 and 39 minutes of playing time over his last two as Bradley Beal has been out of the lineup, and that should continue tonight as Beal remains inactive. Avdija averages a low 17.1% usage rate with Beal and Hachimura off the floor this season, but his 0.88 FPTS/min rate is more than good enough to get the job done at his salary.
Kawhi Leonard, vs. WSH (FD: $5,800) FanDuel
Also consider: Kyle Anderson, Javonte Green, Joe Harris, Aleksej Pokusevski, Tim Hardaway Jr., Buddy Hield, Jaden McDaniels, Zach LaVine
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic, vs. UTA (FD: $11,500, DK: $11,500)
Jokic is my spend-up recommendation for tonight, as he typically is whenever he plays. He's expensive, and he has put up the occasional let-down this season as his usage rate has dipped from last year as Jamaal Murray is back in action. One of those stinkers came the last time he faced the Jazz as the reigning MVP put up only 38.5 DK points in one of his worst games. However, he's one of two players on this slate who has a realistic shot at exceeding 70 DK points (Luka Doncic), and that's always something we want to target in daily fantasy contests. The Jazz have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers as they don't roll out a true big man at the position, aside from rookie Walker Kessler. Fire up Joker.
Also consider: Daniel Gafford, Walker Kessler, Jarrett Allen, Rudy Gobert, Myles Turner
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