The Deepest Dive: WR Sleepers in 16+ Team Leagues

May 28, 2020

Antonio Losada evaluates ADP data related to deep fantasy football leagues and comes up with wide receivers that can become valuable WR sleepers in 16-plus team leagues and formats.

After looking at quarterbacks previously, we continue our look at deep-league draft target with the wide receiver position.

I define a deep league as one in which at least 16 teams take part. That means that each draft round would consist of 16 picks and that there would be 240 (15 rounds multiplied by 16 teams) players drafted overall. So for this exercise, I will be looking at players with ADPs over 240 using a dataset comprised of data from drafts based on leagues with such structure. The data comes from PPR-format leagues, and whenever I mention stats, projections, and fantasy points those would all be spoken of on the basis of that format.

Here is a look at four wide receivers that can be considered sleepers in super deep, 16-plus teams leagues. Keep an eye on them and track their presence on the draft board as they can become interesting pieces down the road during the development of the 2020 season!

Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers

ADP: 248

If you read RotoBaller daily, you must have stumbled upon one of my latest columns covering wide receivers poised to increase their target share in 2020. One of the names present there? Allen Lazard. The Green Bay Packers FO seemed to be determined to piss Aaron Rodgers off this offseason and did nothing to bolster the offensive unit for the veteran quarterback. No new names mean that good old names will remain in place, and that they'll need to level up for the Pack to get a step further in the postseason.

Excluding Rodgers, no one is arguing who are the two best players of this offense are. Aaron Jones, Davante Adams, and their ADPs (both top-24) speak for themselves. Next in line to put up big numbers? Had I to bet, I'd go with Allen Lazard. While Lazard only played a limited role last season he already showed his ability by finishing with 477 receiving yards, the second-most of every Packer in 2019. He did so while targeted just 52 times.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jimmy Graham, and Geronimo Allison had more chances but all of them wasted more than Lazard. Allen Lazard profiles as the no. 2 receiver in Green Bay's 2020 attack, should see his number go up if only because of an uptick in volume, and somehow he's still going undrafted in the deepest of leagues. Somebody explain it to me because it makes no sense that a potential WR2 in real life and surefire FLEX (at the very least) fantasy asset is flying under the radar this much.

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans

ADP: 256

Speaking of second bananas...enter Corey Davis. Rewind 12 months back to the summer of 2019 and tell me who you thought would lead the Titans offense at the receiver position. You would have mention Davis' name before I could even finish the question. Tennessee's offense was rather mediocre last season during its Marcus Mariota-led span of games. It wasn't until the arrival of season-savior Ryan Tannehill and the explosion of both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown that the Titans got their stuff together.

Now, check Brown's splits at Week 11's bye. Before W11: 89.4 fantasy points in 10 games; after W11:  127.7 fantasy points in six games. Davis went the opposite way, logging 77.4 before the bye and only 37.7 after it. That, precisely, is what is making him a cheap asset during this draft-season. It is hard to pencil Davis as a league-winner after last year's drop in production, that's right. But Davis is just entering his age-25 season, and is only two years removed from finishing as a WR2 in 2018 deep leagues (he was the 28th-best WR).

While Tennessee just declined Davis' fifth-year contract option and might eventually move on from him, that means that Davis will 1) be playing in a contract year, which will see him give everything he's got in him this season and 2) be the no. 2 receiver of an offense that wasn't for Brown's "unexpected" arrival would be barred of talent at the WR position. Let's be serious for a minute: do you trust an Adam Humphries come back more than one from Davis? It isn't happening in my mind, nor in PFF's projections: Davis' expected targets/receptions/yards in 2020 are 77/48/613 while Humphries stand at 66/49/497. Too good to pass on the former at his current ADP.

Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts

ADP: 247

Great quarterback? Check. Good, filled-at-every-position, offensive attack? Double-check. Nice role on the receiving corps? Triple-check. Parris Campbell was buried down the Colts pecking-order last season. Indy had to feed Zach Pascal and T.Y. Hilton, and a couple of good tight ends in Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle. When all was said and done, Campbell had only logged 24 targets in his seven appearances for the team and a paltry 38.1 fantasy points combined in those games. Good for us, that was 2019 and we're about to start a fresh new season where Campbell should be on a much better position.

For starters, Indianapolis will have Philip Rivers as its starting quarterback. On top of that, the running back corps is even stronger than last season and should keep giving the receivers some leverages by keeping defenses honest. Now, if you know anything about Hilton, is that he couldn't stay healthy last season. He could miss games again in 2020 and that's important in super deep leagues where you should take advantage of any potential quirk to get an edge. Looking at next season projections from PFF, Campbell is expected to finish 2020 as the second most-used WR by the Colts (81 targets) and grab all of 58 passes for 595 yards and four TDs. Only Hilton is above him in every category assuming he plays a full 16-game schedule.

Campbell's 595 projected yards rank second among receivers with ADPs over 240 (Corey Davis is first) and he's projected as the most targeted wide receiver of that group and the one poised to catch the most passes edging Russell Gage by six and Steven Sims by nine. He's also one of two players (along with Corey Davis) expected to score four touchdowns on the year. Same as with Davis and Lazard before, Campbell could turn into the WR2 of the Colts this season. Now, the most impressive projection: no WR expected to score 146+ PPR points in 2020 has an ADP above 162 except Campbell. I dare you to tell me this is not a ridiculous bargain.

Mohamed Sanu Sr., New England Patriots

ADP: 270

A certain Tom Brady has left New England for the sunnier landscapes of Tampa. Phillip Dorsett, after spending three years in Foxborough, is also bolting for Seattle. Other than that, the Patriots are pretty much the same all around the skill positions. That means that the wide receiver corps of the Pats are basically comprised of uber-veteran Julian Edelman and newborn-sophomore N'Keal Harry along with mid-season acquisition Mo Sanu. Contrary to popular trends, I'm a believer in both Edelman and Harry no matter the circumstances, and I have always loved Sanu's unexplosive-yet-safe game. And given New England's situation and the team minimal expectations for 2020, I think all of the three could thrive this season.

The Patriots are more than likely going to suck this season. They will fall behind on the scoreboard and need to play catch-up. They will need to fire on all cylinders and risk it in order to at least try and do something. Having a "rookie" quarterback expected to lead them on offense, I bet he'll go for Edelman and Sanu over Harry most times. Sanu is this guy who won't win you the league, for sure, but you know you can bank on him weekly to come up with some solid production steadily. He's going to finish the year with more than 500 yards and 70 catches, that's guaranteed. He's going to grab a few touchdowns down the road, that's for sure.

Although he struggled to find a place in New England after the trade, Sanu was terrific in Atlanta mostly during the first five weeks of the season when he averaged 12.7 PPG and racked up 281 yards. His usage dropped a bit in NE and that affected his production, but he should positively regress a bit. All positions considered, Sanu projects to finish 2020 with 113.5 PPR points and a 7.1 average good for the sixth-best outcome among players with ADPs over 240. Among wide receivers expected to score two or fewer touchdowns (which is to say, those whose PPR production will mostly rely on yardage and receptions), Sanu ranks third in expect total PPR next year over players with higher ADPs such as Jalen Reagor (ADP 122), James Washington (152), Willie Snead (209), or Jake Kumerow (133). Bet on experience, bet on Sanu.

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