RADIO
The NASCAR Research Station is one of our most important features in the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass package. It is a deluxe suite of advanced NASCAR statistics that can help you identify the top drivers and value plays for ideal lineup constructions every week. It includes historical, recent, and projected stats and Loop Data. If you want to work on your fantasy NASCAR setup with all the best statistical tools, this is your numerical garage for DraftKings and FanDuel lineup building.
Each week, we will feature highlighted stat categories and plays that are identified from our Research Station studies, yet we highly encourage you to get your hands dirtier with your own comprehensive examination of the available statistics and categories. There’s much more and a significantly larger selection of categories than what we highlight here. We use DraftKings prices as a basis, but most of what we recommend here should also be applied to FanDuel lineup builds.
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DFS NASCAR Research Station Spotlights
Vegas Odds
-The Research Station’s Vegas Odds are in decimal format from the DraftKings Sportsbook. Implied percentages are adjusted for rake. Here are some key observations for your lineups based on the odds.
-The Implied Odds to win percentages this week are lower than in other events, reflecting the highly unpredictable nature of superspeedway events. Anyone can wreck at any time, and we also have the debut of the Next Gen car to consider as well. The impact of the new cars may not be felt as highly this week because projected results are always more varied at a site like Daytona International Speedway. But featuring the Next Gen car in a true Cup race for the first time is not going to make it any easier to determine outlooks this week.
-Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have the highest Implied Odds to win the Daytona 500, with both at seven percent. Even though Hamlin starts 30th, starting position should not mean much in the end and he will obviously be a terrific Place Differential target. Larson is starting on the pole, which means he could lead some laps, but he has never finished in the Top 5 at Daytona. If he wrecks this week, he can instantly doom any lineup with the significant loss of Place Differential points.
Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney are close by Hamlin and Larson in Implied Odds to win at six percent. Elliott has never won at Daytona, but he has finished second in two of his last three races at the site. Blaney won the second race at DIS last season and he is slightly cheaper than Hamlin, Larson, and Elliott at $10,000 on DraftKings. When rolling out multiple lineups, I would be heavier on Hamlin and Blaney while sprinkling in Elliott as well.
Projections
-Austin Dillon is projected to score the second-most points on DraftKings this week (54.25). Dillon is always a threat to make real noise at a superspeedway, and he has huge Place Differential upside starting from the 36th position. Dillon finished third in last season’s Daytona 500 and he won “The Great American Race” in 2018. You have to give him very strong consideration at a DK price tag of $8400. Dillon is projected to be 46 percent rostered, but you can vary builds around him to differentiate your lineups while taking advantage of the expectations.
-Justin Haley is projected to score 40.30 points on DK in the Daytona 500, the most of any driver priced below $8000. He starts 25th and is projected to finish 15th. The projections do allow for a flexible range of outcomes, so Haley could very well finish a few spots above or below 15th. Haley actually won in a rain-shortened race in the second event at Daytona in 2019 and he finished second at the site in the second race last season. The Research Station has also pinpointed Haley’s Kaulig Racing teammate, Daniel Hemric as a prime value play at $7000. He is projected to score 40.25 points, starting 33rd and finishing inside the Top 20.
Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers
We can often identify good value plays from this category. Brad Keselowski has 17.8 Fantasy Points Gained vs. Similar Drivers in recent races at DIS. He won one of the Thursday Duel races and is looking like a very good play at $8200. Keselsowski would like his season to get off to a good start as he looks to change the outlook at RFK Racing. Kesewloski has not finished well at Daytona since winning the 500 in 2016, but this could be a week of turning things around for himself and his new team.
Driver Rating Gained vs. Similar Drivers
Driver Rating is the single most important Loop Data statistic, so we revisit this category regularly. This metric looks at the DR a driver achieved in a race and compares it to all other drivers historically with a similar season long DR and with very similar positions. Cole Custer has a Driver Rating of 9.3 Gained vs. Similar Drivers at superspeedways. He is projected to start 31st and finish 20th with 35.35 points, which would be a good return for the $6500 price tag. Custer finished 11th in the 2020 Daytona 500 and he finished 10th and 13th at Talladega last season.
