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College Football Playoff Rankings Analysis - CFP Scenarios for Championship Week

Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

The last great college football season heads into Championship Week. Why is it the last great season? Because this is the last year of the four-team playoff. Take a look at each of the last 10 years or so. Only once could we justify going deeper than four teams. This year might be another one of those exceptions.

There are a plethora of different outcomes that could make life very easy...or extraordinarily difficult...on the committee. At the beginning of Championship Week, we are going to take a look at those possible outcomes.

We will look at the likely ones. We'll take a look at the ones that would make the most sense to the committee. We will also be taking a look at some off-the-wall scenarios that could almost justify playoff expansion. To be fair, I was okay with the expansion to eight teams. 12 is overkill. This isn't the NFL. We don't, nor will we ever, need a three-loss Champion. Sorry, LSU. I love Jayden Daniels but that defense is a mess.

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CFP Scenario 1: The Easy Button

Michigan wins Big Ten
Florida State wins ACC
Georgia wins SEC
Washington wins Pac 12

We have four undefeated Power-Five teams. If all four win, this is the easiest scenario, right? Of course, you'll have one-loss Texas (if they win the Big 12) saying they beat Alabama and one-loss Ohio State saying that they played a tougher schedule, but undefeated in a major conference is undefeated in a major conference. Four undefeated teams are the easiest way for this to go for the committee.

 

CFP Scenario 2: Hook Em Up!

Michigan wins Big Ten
Georgia wins SEC
Washington wins Pac-12
Texas wins Big 12
Louisville wins ACC

Texas would need Georgia to win the SEC to take one-loss Alabama out of the conversation. Michigan winning the Big Ten would avoid Texas having to be compared with Michigan and Ohio State. A one-loss Florida State is likely out. Without Jordan Travis, they are not the same team and won't be evaluated as such by the committee. They are looking for a reason to replace them. A loss to Louisville would do it.

The Longhorns would also need Washington to beat Oregon again. If Oregon wins, both teams would likely get in over a one-loss Texas because each of their losses are better than Texas's. That said, the committee does value conference championships. Oregon beating Washington would have Texas competing with Oregon and Ohio State under this scenario. Texas destroyed Texas Tech where Oregon escaped them. The strength of the Pac could be enough to give Washington the leg-up, so Texas just needs a Washington win to avoid all doubt.

 

CFP Scenario 3: Revenge Of Brutus

Iowa wins Big Ten
Georgia Wins SEC
Oklahoma State wins Big 12
Louisville wins ACC
Washington wins Pac-12

Ohio State needs a lot of help. Ultimately, whoever wins the Big Ten may not matter much. In this scenario, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama would all be eliminated. That would leave Ohio State, Florida State, and Michigan as the only remaining Power-Five one-loss teams. I think Florida State is out with a loss no matter what, so this is the ultimate scenario for the Big Ten. Michigan and Ohio State would both be in.

An Alabama or Texas win would necessitate Michigan losing to Iowa. Under that scenario, a one-loss Texas or Alabama as conference champion would put them in over Ohio State. Once again, they are left comparing resumes to Florida State and Michigan. FSU is out, but what about Michigan?

Only 2016 Ohio State, 2017 Alabama, and 2022 Ohio State made the CFP without playing in a conference championship. That's a dangerous precedent that the CFP has selected Ohio State twice without playing in their CCG. Ohio State having better wins (and a better loss, even if it is to the team they are up against), might get them in over Michigan. History says that it would.

 

CFP Scenario 4: The Power Two

Alabama wins SEC
Iowa wins Big Ten
Oregon wins Pac-12
Louisville wins ACC
Oklahoma State wins Big 12

Who needs five power conferences anyway? Under this scenario, one-loss conference champions Alabama and Oregon would be in. That leaves Florida State, Michigan, Washington, and Georgia all in the same boat: they lost their conference championship games. Ohio State would be an afterthought in this. So would Florida State. You now have Michigan, Washington, and Georgia for comparison. The strength of the Pac-12 and SEC should be more than enough to poke holes in Michigan's cakewalk of a season.

The UNLV and Bowling Green wins were by far their best until the Penn State game. Washington would have wins over bowl-eligible teams Oregon (a playoff team), Arizona, Utah, USC, Oregon State, and Cal. Michigan has UNLV, Bowling Green, Penn State, and Ohio State, Maryland, and Rutgers. Georgia would have wins over Mississippi, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. In this scenario, Michigan is out.

If Texas wins the Big 12, this scenario is likely gone. The CFP has placed an emphasis on winning your conference championship. Texas would replace either Georgia or Washington even if the SOS doesn't quite stack up.

 

(21) Scenario 5: We're The SEC And You're Not

Alabama wins SEC
Washington wins Pac-12
Michigan wins Big Ten
Oklahoma State wins Big 12
Louisville wins ACC

In this scenario, I don't know if it even matters who wins the ACC or Big 12. One-loss Georgia is getting in over Florida State without Jordan Travis. Georgia is going to be judged differently based on back-to-back national championships. The committee is not leaving them out. If Alabama wins the SEC, they are taking a bid from someone, and it won't be Georgia.

The SEC Champion has made the CFP every season. They are the only conference that can claim that honor. The Big 12 champ was left out in 2014, 2016, 2020, and 2021. The Pac-12 champ has only made the CFP once, back in 2016 (Washington). The ACC champ was left out in 2021 and 2022. The only time that a SEC at-large missed out was Texas A&M in 2019.

That would leave Alabama, Michigan, and Washington as the automatic bids. Georgia would beat out one-loss Florida State. They might even beat out an undefeated Florida State without Jordan Travis.

 

CFP Scenario 6: Chaos Theory

Iowa wins Big Ten
Texas wins Big 12
Alabama wins SEC
Florida State wins ACC
Oregon wins Pac-12

A one-loss Michigan who lost the conference championship game would be absolute destruction to the four-team playoff if it weren't dead already. In this scenario, if we go by how the committee has done things in the past, undefeated Florida State and conference champions Oregon, Texas, and Alabama would be in. That leaves out one-loss teams Washington, Ohio State, Michigan, and two-time champion Georgia. How do you think that goes over? There's a band named for that. In this scenario, an eight-team playoff would be perfect. Unfortunately, we all know college football isn't perfect.

 

CFP Scenario 7: Armageddon

Florida State wins ACC
Texas wins Big 12
Alabama wins SEC
Oregon wins Pac-12
Michigan wins Big Ten

This is territory that the CFP committee really hopes it doesn't find itself in. In this scenario, Michigan and Alabama are the only two locks. You have undefeated Florida State without their star. You have one-loss Texas and Oregon as conference champions. You have one-loss Washington who beat Oregon earlier in the season. One-loss Georgia lost the conference championship and won the regular season title. One-loss Ohio State beat two (at the time and one currently) top-10 teams.

In this scenario, Ohio State would have to be the first team out. Sorry, Buckeyes fans. That's the way it works. Texas beat the SEC champion on the road and won their conference regular season and conference championships. Even Georgia can't claim that. So, who is the next one in? If the CFP truly values conference championships, Texas has to be in. That win in Tuscaloosa in September will be huge.

That would leave undefeated Florida State squaring off with Oregon, Georgia, and Washington. How much does the loss of Jordan Travis affect this decision? If you truly want the best four teams, Florida State likely isn't one of them even though they haven't lost. Fans will riot, and it would be hard to blame them. Do you really think Florida State gets in over a one-loss Georgia? The SEC has been treated like elites by the committee every year. Why would that suddenly change?

The Pac-12 was the toughest conference in FBS this season. As for Washington, the weaker out-of-conference scheduling would bite them here. They have great wins in the conference, but Boise, Tulsa, and Michigan State all had down years by their standards (speaking of...remember when Sparty was favored against the Huskies? Good times!). Georgia's OOC wasn't any better (Tennessee-Martin, UAB, and Ball State), but wins over Kentucky, Auburn, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech would still sway the committee towards the Dawgs.

That leaves Oregon and Georgia. Oregon won their conference and will have a top-5 win over Washington. An out-of-conference win in Lubbock is a good look. The win over Colorado no longer looms large and the Washington State win isn't as important. The mass destruction of Utah in Salt Lake City was good. So was the blowout of a bowl-bound Cal team. Wins over USC and Oregon State are favorable as well.

Georgia would have a win over 10-win Mississippi. Oregon's would be over undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 title game. Georgia scuffled with Missouri at home. Oregon blew out Utah in Salt Lake City. Would the SEC bias reign over the Pac-12 champ? This is where CFP committee history would collide. The committee has only left out a one-loss SEC team once, and that team missed the conference championship game.

Only twice has a one-loss Power Five champ been left out (2014 Baylor/TCU; they didn't have a CCG, 2018 Ohio State). In 2018, Kirk Herbstreit was so upset that the Buckeyes didn't make the CFP over Oklahoma that he left the set of the selection show for a few minutes. Would the committee dare leave out a conference champion, perhaps the champion of the best overall conference, out in favor of Georgia? Let's hope that we don't have to find out.



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