X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

College Football Playoff Rankings Analysis - CFP Scenarios for Championship Week

Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

College football playoff (CFP) rankings analysis for Championship Week. Breaking down the 2023 CFP rankings scenarios for the College Football Playoff Committee.

The last great college football season heads into Championship Week. Why is it the last great season? Because this is the last year of the four-team playoff. Take a look at each of the last 10 years or so. Only once could we justify going deeper than four teams. This year might be another one of those exceptions.

There are a plethora of different outcomes that could make life very easy...or extraordinarily difficult...on the committee. At the beginning of Championship Week, we are going to take a look at those possible outcomes.

We will look at the likely ones. We'll take a look at the ones that would make the most sense to the committee. We will also be taking a look at some off-the-wall scenarios that could almost justify playoff expansion. To be fair, I was okay with the expansion to eight teams. 12 is overkill. This isn't the NFL. We don't, nor will we ever, need a three-loss Champion. Sorry, LSU. I love Jayden Daniels but that defense is a mess.

Featured Promo: Get any College Football Premium Pass for 30% off and win more using code WIN. Exclusive access to our industry-leading DFS Lineup Optimizer, DFS Cheat Sheets and Premium Discord Chat rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

CFP Scenario 1: The Easy Button

Michigan wins Big Ten
Florida State wins ACC
Georgia wins SEC
Washington wins Pac 12

We have four undefeated Power-Five teams. If all four win, this is the easiest scenario, right? Of course, you'll have one-loss Texas (if they win the Big 12) saying they beat Alabama and one-loss Ohio State saying that they played a tougher schedule, but undefeated in a major conference is undefeated in a major conference. Four undefeated teams are the easiest way for this to go for the committee.

 

CFP Scenario 2: Hook Em Up!

Michigan wins Big Ten
Georgia wins SEC
Washington wins Pac-12
Texas wins Big 12
Louisville wins ACC

Texas would need Georgia to win the SEC to take one-loss Alabama out of the conversation. Michigan winning the Big Ten would avoid Texas having to be compared with Michigan and Ohio State. A one-loss Florida State is likely out. Without Jordan Travis, they are not the same team and won't be evaluated as such by the committee. They are looking for a reason to replace them. A loss to Louisville would do it.

The Longhorns would also need Washington to beat Oregon again. If Oregon wins, both teams would likely get in over a one-loss Texas because each of their losses are better than Texas's. That said, the committee does value conference championships. Oregon beating Washington would have Texas competing with Oregon and Ohio State under this scenario. Texas destroyed Texas Tech where Oregon escaped them. The strength of the Pac could be enough to give Washington the leg-up, so Texas just needs a Washington win to avoid all doubt.

 

CFP Scenario 3: Revenge Of Brutus

Iowa wins Big Ten
Georgia Wins SEC
Oklahoma State wins Big 12
Louisville wins ACC
Washington wins Pac-12

Ohio State needs a lot of help. Ultimately, whoever wins the Big Ten may not matter much. In this scenario, Oregon, Texas, and Alabama would all be eliminated. That would leave Ohio State, Florida State, and Michigan as the only remaining Power-Five one-loss teams. I think Florida State is out with a loss no matter what, so this is the ultimate scenario for the Big Ten. Michigan and Ohio State would both be in.

An Alabama or Texas win would necessitate Michigan losing to Iowa. Under that scenario, a one-loss Texas or Alabama as conference champion would put them in over Ohio State. Once again, they are left comparing resumes to Florida State and Michigan. FSU is out, but what about Michigan?

Only 2016 Ohio State, 2017 Alabama, and 2022 Ohio State made the CFP without playing in a conference championship. That's a dangerous precedent that the CFP has selected Ohio State twice without playing in their CCG. Ohio State having better wins (and a better loss, even if it is to the team they are up against), might get them in over Michigan. History says that it would.

 

CFP Scenario 4: The Power Two

Alabama wins SEC
Iowa wins Big Ten
Oregon wins Pac-12
Louisville wins ACC
Oklahoma State wins Big 12

Who needs five power conferences anyway? Under this scenario, one-loss conference champions Alabama and Oregon would be in. That leaves Florida State, Michigan, Washington, and Georgia all in the same boat: they lost their conference championship games. Ohio State would be an afterthought in this. So would Florida State. You now have Michigan, Washington, and Georgia for comparison. The strength of the Pac-12 and SEC should be more than enough to poke holes in Michigan's cakewalk of a season.

The UNLV and Bowling Green wins were by far their best until the Penn State game. Washington would have wins over bowl-eligible teams Oregon (a playoff team), Arizona, Utah, USC, Oregon State, and Cal. Michigan has UNLV, Bowling Green, Penn State, and Ohio State, Maryland, and Rutgers. Georgia would have wins over Mississippi, Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech. In this scenario, Michigan is out.

If Texas wins the Big 12, this scenario is likely gone. The CFP has placed an emphasis on winning your conference championship. Texas would replace either Georgia or Washington even if the SOS doesn't quite stack up.

 

(21) Scenario 5: We're The SEC And You're Not

Alabama wins SEC
Washington wins Pac-12
Michigan wins Big Ten
Oklahoma State wins Big 12
Louisville wins ACC

In this scenario, I don't know if it even matters who wins the ACC or Big 12. One-loss Georgia is getting in over Florida State without Jordan Travis. Georgia is going to be judged differently based on back-to-back national championships. The committee is not leaving them out. If Alabama wins the SEC, they are taking a bid from someone, and it won't be Georgia.

The SEC Champion has made the CFP every season. They are the only conference that can claim that honor. The Big 12 champ was left out in 2014, 2016, 2020, and 2021. The Pac-12 champ has only made the CFP once, back in 2016 (Washington). The ACC champ was left out in 2021 and 2022. The only time that a SEC at-large missed out was Texas A&M in 2019.

That would leave Alabama, Michigan, and Washington as the automatic bids. Georgia would beat out one-loss Florida State. They might even beat out an undefeated Florida State without Jordan Travis.

 

CFP Scenario 6: Chaos Theory

Iowa wins Big Ten
Texas wins Big 12
Alabama wins SEC
Florida State wins ACC
Oregon wins Pac-12

A one-loss Michigan who lost the conference championship game would be absolute destruction to the four-team playoff if it weren't dead already. In this scenario, if we go by how the committee has done things in the past, undefeated Florida State and conference champions Oregon, Texas, and Alabama would be in. That leaves out one-loss teams Washington, Ohio State, Michigan, and two-time champion Georgia. How do you think that goes over? There's a band named for that. In this scenario, an eight-team playoff would be perfect. Unfortunately, we all know college football isn't perfect.

 

CFP Scenario 7: Armageddon

Florida State wins ACC
Texas wins Big 12
Alabama wins SEC
Oregon wins Pac-12
Michigan wins Big Ten

This is territory that the CFP committee really hopes it doesn't find itself in. In this scenario, Michigan and Alabama are the only two locks. You have undefeated Florida State without their star. You have one-loss Texas and Oregon as conference champions. You have one-loss Washington who beat Oregon earlier in the season. One-loss Georgia lost the conference championship and won the regular season title. One-loss Ohio State beat two (at the time and one currently) top-10 teams.

In this scenario, Ohio State would have to be the first team out. Sorry, Buckeyes fans. That's the way it works. Texas beat the SEC champion on the road and won their conference regular season and conference championships. Even Georgia can't claim that. So, who is the next one in? If the CFP truly values conference championships, Texas has to be in. That win in Tuscaloosa in September will be huge.

That would leave undefeated Florida State squaring off with Oregon, Georgia, and Washington. How much does the loss of Jordan Travis affect this decision? If you truly want the best four teams, Florida State likely isn't one of them even though they haven't lost. Fans will riot, and it would be hard to blame them. Do you really think Florida State gets in over a one-loss Georgia? The SEC has been treated like elites by the committee every year. Why would that suddenly change?

The Pac-12 was the toughest conference in FBS this season. As for Washington, the weaker out-of-conference scheduling would bite them here. They have great wins in the conference, but Boise, Tulsa, and Michigan State all had down years by their standards (speaking of...remember when Sparty was favored against the Huskies? Good times!). Georgia's OOC wasn't any better (Tennessee-Martin, UAB, and Ball State), but wins over Kentucky, Auburn, Missouri, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Georgia Tech would still sway the committee towards the Dawgs.

That leaves Oregon and Georgia. Oregon won their conference and will have a top-5 win over Washington. An out-of-conference win in Lubbock is a good look. The win over Colorado no longer looms large and the Washington State win isn't as important. The mass destruction of Utah in Salt Lake City was good. So was the blowout of a bowl-bound Cal team. Wins over USC and Oregon State are favorable as well.

Georgia would have a win over 10-win Mississippi. Oregon's would be over undefeated Washington in the Pac-12 title game. Georgia scuffled with Missouri at home. Oregon blew out Utah in Salt Lake City. Would the SEC bias reign over the Pac-12 champ? This is where CFP committee history would collide. The committee has only left out a one-loss SEC team once, and that team missed the conference championship game.

Only twice has a one-loss Power Five champ been left out (2014 Baylor/TCU; they didn't have a CCG, 2018 Ohio State). In 2018, Kirk Herbstreit was so upset that the Buckeyes didn't make the CFP over Oklahoma that he left the set of the selection show for a few minutes. Would the committee dare leave out a conference champion, perhaps the champion of the best overall conference, out in favor of Georgia? Let's hope that we don't have to find out.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More College Football Analysis

More DFS Lineup Picks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP