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Mike's Week 1 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday and Friday games in 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis & ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Last weekend was the appetizer. Thursday and Friday are the soup and salad leading up to Saturday's 25-plate main course. We finish with dessert on Sunday and coffee on Monday. Labor Day weekend is such a blast without the NFL getting in the way!
There are 28 games over the next two days, but only 15 of them feature FBS vs. FBS teams. Most of the games between FCS and FBS schools aren't even on the major sportsbooks. Some sites will create a line for you if you ask, but it most certainly won't favor you. Since those are off the books anyway, I won't pick them, either. I have to draw the line somewhere.
We won't complain about those things. There are a lot of great matchups in Week 1! We'll take a look at the Thursday and Friday games and take a look back at Week 0.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1 (8/28-8/29/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
(25) Boise State (-6.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Exhaustive list of current FBS QB’s who have thrown for over 3,200 yards and rushed for over 800 yards in a season.
1. Byrum Brown (USF)
— SarasotaUSF (@SarasotaUSF) August 15, 2025
Both teams are in my Group of 5 Top 10 rankings. Boise is higher, but this game is not on a neutral field. Byrum Brown, when healthy, is one of the most exciting players in the country. I think this game stays within 3-4 points if USF doesn't win outright at home. I might lay a bit on that too.
Pick: South Florida +6.5
Ohio at Rutgers (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Greg Schiano has Rutgers cooking again, but this looks high. I expect a low-scoring game, and I don't expect Parker Navarro and Sieh Bangura to get shut out. I guess that means I'm taking Ohio.
Pick: Ohio +15.5
East Carolina at North Carolina State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm surprised by this line considering that ECU beat the Pack in the Military Bowl. The difference is that ECU is missing superback Rahjai Harris, and the Pack is missing KC Concepcion. I'll be honest...I really hate that hook.
On one hand, I feel like the Wolfpack is going to be fired up about the Military Bowl and come out swinging. On the other hand, I know the Pirates won't back down. This series is more even than you think. ECU has won four of the last seven since 2010. ECU doesn't win, but I don't see a blowout either.
Pick: East Carolina +14.5
Jacksonville State at Central Florida (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Seriously? I expect a nice year from Cam Fancher with Scott Frost back in Orlando, but this is too many. UCF is going to start slow before pulling away. Slow enough to not cover.
Pick: Jacksonville State +20.5
Wyoming (-5.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is in a free fall, and I'm not sure why. I know that Alex Adams is back for Akron, and I know we're going to see a few Turnover Tires, but Ben Finley is still the quarterback.
Look ma, I’m in the turnover tire!! pic.twitter.com/5aGf8ZZQ84
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 9, 2023
Wyoming is not a potent offense, but the defense is going to force some mistakes. I'll take the Cowboys.
Pick: Wyoming -5.5
Buffalo at Minnesota (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like too many, but what if Buffalo can't stop Darius Taylor? That worries me enough to lower the bet.
Pick: Buffalo +17.5
Nebraska (-6.5) vs. Cincinnati at Kansas City, MO
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Husker fans are going to break decibel records in Arrowhead☠️ pic.twitter.com/d4MOFDAhER
— Barstool ‘Skers (@BarstoolHusker) December 16, 2024
The Nebraska Kool-Aid has had a bitter aftertaste for many years now. The Cincinnati defense was a sore spot last year, but they hit the portal to help. Not enough. I love Nebraska here for under a touchdown.
Pick: Nebraska -6.5
Miami (OH) at Wisconsin (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I wouldn't be shocked if Miami won this outright, so yeah...this is too many.
Pick: Miami (OH) +17.5
Appalachian State (-6.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The 49ers picked up Conner Harrell from North Carolina. App State picked up AJ Swann from Vanderbilt. That may be the only position in which Charlotte has the edge. Give me the Mountaineers.
Pick: Appalachian State -6.5
Kennesaw State at Wake Forest (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough number considering how bad Wake looked last year. Former Auburn chosen one Robby Ashford is now the quarterback for Wake, and Demond Claiborne is still around. Oh, and Wake has a receiver named Karate Brenson. That puts it over the top!
Pick: Wake Forest -17.5
Western Michigan at Michigan State (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This Michigan State offense looked sluggish almost all of 2024, and they didn't change much. I liked it better when it opened at 17.5. Now I don't like this line at all. Give me the Broncos, but I'm not touching this.
Pick: Western Michigan +20.5
Auburn (-2.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I don’t understand the certainty of some analysts favoring Auburn over Baylor in week 1.
Auburn has a defensive advantage for sure, but you’re telling me Sawyer Robertson, Bryson Washington, and Josh Cameron can’t hang with the Tigers offense?
I don’t know about that.
— Oliver Hodgkinson (@hodgkinsonsport) August 27, 2025
This line is completely bogus. Baylor wins outright...maybe by double digits.
Pick: BAYLOR +2.5
Georgia Tech (-4.5) at Colorado
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The thin air at Folsom Field will help keep this close, but Tech could be a well-oiled machine this year. Give me the Bees.
Pick: Georgia Tech -4.5
UNLV (-9.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
We have a barometer for both of these teams since they both played in Week 0. Vegas must be interpreting the UNLV depth charts differently than I am. I know it says Anthony Colandrea OR Alex Orji, but there is no way that the Rebels aren't giving Colandrea most of this game with the way the offense looked under him in Week 0.
The Sam Houston defense was surprisingly good against Western Kentucky until they weren't. The Bearkats will keep this close again for a while, but they will have no answer for Jai'Den Thomas.
Pick: UNLV -9.5
Central Michigan at San Jose State (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Central Michigan may have the worst starting quarterback in FBS. Give me the Spartans.
Pick: San Jose State (-11.5)
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? There were only three games in Week 0, so I won't link the spreadsheet yet. It's still under construction anyway. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
(22) Iowa State vs. (17) Kansas State (-3.5) at Dublin, Ireland: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If you’re reading this, there was another fumble in Farmageddon pic.twitter.com/akpZygrUr6
— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) August 23, 2025
It was a rough first half in the rain in Dublin. There were three fumbles in the first six minutes of the game. Hey, the Irish got a little bit of everything here. They got a great rivalry, fumbles, touchdowns, athletic plays, and one of the craziest ways to hit the under that I've ever seen. If the Big 12 (16) doesn't protect this rivalry, I quit.
Mario Cristobal watching Iowa State take 3 knees from the 1-yard line: pic.twitter.com/qe91FEdl7c
— College Sports Only 🏈🏀⚾️ (@CollegeSportsO) August 23, 2025
Fresno State at Kansas (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
There are not many players more exciting than Jalon Daniels at Kansas
If he can stay healthy It might be the Jayhawks conference for the taking pic.twitter.com/DYCdL0LtZS
— CFBTalkDaily (@CFBTalkDaily) August 25, 2025
Jalon Daniels, we're glad you're back. He's so much fun to watch!
Sam Houston at Western Kentucky (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I had to sweat this one for a bit, but Maverick McIvor (seriously...what a great name) did what Western Kentucky quarterbacks do. They throw for 400 yards a game, just like clockwork.
Stanford at Hawaii (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A kicker who learned how to kick by watching YouTube videos in his native Japan beats Stanford as time runs out. I love college football!
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. For the first time ever, I started the season perfect in Week 0. I hit all four bets to start the season 4-0. I'll take that any week!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 0-0 (0-0) = 0
2. 1-0 (1-0) = 2
3. 1-0 (1-0) = 3
4. 1-0 (1-0) = 4
5. 1-0 (1-0) = 5
I'm up 14 points so far, but a dreadful 2021 and a subpar 2024 still have me in the red overall. How far? I don't know. I can't seem to find all of my 2019 and 2020 articles, but I'm trying!
