RADIO
How in the world is it November already? Including this week, we only have five weeks of ESPN College Pick Em left. That's a third of the season left. To the victor goes a premium RotoBaller subscription for 2024. May the best prognosticator win! In week 9, that was mr_richard. He was the only entry over 50 points (51) last week. lbockenek finished with 48 points with victimeyes, espn84453468, HoneyBadgers, and JPH420 all hitting 45 or better.
JPH420 held onto first with another strong week at 363 points. 50Centi is only three points back with Brian681757 two points back of that in third place. HoneyBadgers, ertlt, mr_richard, Kahn, keepingthelittlehumansalive, Munch MaGash, and kingrah23 round out the top 10. There are only 18 points between first place and 10th. Things can change in a hurry!
Once again, all 10 games are conference games this week. Oh man, this looks tough. It feels like another week where the low-40s could lead the group in points again.
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College Football Pick Em Overview
This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on Twitter. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week. Good luck out there. I'm against a lot of the public this week. Wish me luck!
(1) Kansas State over Texas
The Wildcats have taken the Oklahoma State model and made it work where the Cowboys failed. Of course, they don't have Ollie Gordon or Alan Bowman. They wouldn't have to then. The Wildcats have proven proficient at when to switch up the quarterbacks and running backs to optimize success and it has worked so far. If Quinn Ewers is rusty, the Wildcats have more than a puncher's chance at winning. They can stop the run, leaving Ewers to have to win this on his own.
(2) Kansas over Iowa State
This one worries me because I've made a lot of points (and money) off of people underestimating the Cyclones this year. The problem is that Kansas is built much like Iowa State and they have more talent on the offensive side. Matt Campbell's calling card in Ames has been strong defense and playmakers on offense, usually at running back. The defense is there this year, and Rocco Becht is looking good. I just feel that I have to go with the experience of Kansas here.
(3) LSU over Alabama
LSU is built a lot like the Texas team that came into Tuscaloosa and won back in September. They have a high-voltage offense and can get behind the Alabama secondary. The public is really high on Alabama (81%) in a game where LSU is +140 to win. That's solid odds, definitely not an 80% predicted loss in Vegas.
I have wondered about this as well. Jalen Milroe isn't the problem. He wasn't in the loss to Texas. He isn't in their current win streak. That said, efficiency doesn't always win games. Most "efficient" passers are game managers and Alabama is going to need more than there here. I might move this down and I might end up flipping. For right now, I'm trying to steal points on the 81% in what should be a close game.
(4) Oklahoma State over Oklahoma
It pains me to say this, but Ollie Gordon is much better than anything we have. If Danny Stutsman is ruled out, I'm moving this up. If he's playing hurt, I still might move it up a little. The game is in Stillwater and the Cowboys want nothing more than to send their most hated rival out with a loss in the final Bedlam game for the foreseeable future.
(5) Arizona over UCLA
Can we talk about how Arizona is the best five-win team in the country yet? They should have beaten USC and could have beaten Washington. The Wildcats destroyed Washington State and beat a good Oregon State team. They are two plays away from being 7-1. I love those odds against a public that is 76% invested in UCLA. Arizona has better odds (+112) of an outright win than Kansas does (+115) in Ames. That seals it for me.
(6) Washington over USC
This chart slightly favors Washington, which is where Vegas is at right now (Washington -3.5). I'll take the team that plays some defense. I also think that Washington was saving Jalen McMillan for this game. Nothing has been announced yet, but they said that he might play in the Arizona State game two weeks ago. McMillan helps swing this a little more towards Washington.
What have we seen from any Lincoln Riley-coached team that says they will rally around adversity and overcome it as a team? The one exception was when Caleb Williams replaced Spencer Rattler in the Texas game. Later that year the Sooners folded like a gypsy camp and Lincoln bolted west in the dead of night. If the Trojans rally and win this game, it will be a first for Riley.
(7) James Madison over Georgia State
James Madison needs to win out so the NCAA changes one of their dumbest rules in a league full of them. Darren Grainger is going to be a problem and is a reason that I might move this down. I'm trying to decide if I'm deciding too much with my heart in this one.
(8) Miami (FL) over North Carolina State
The Wolfpack are much improved, but Miami has rallied around Mario Cristobal after the Georgia Tech debacle instead of falling apart. Tyler Van Dyke has a lot to do with this, but the defense is really good this year too. Don't be shocked if the Hurricanes shock the world and win the ACC.
(9) Notre Dame over Clemson
The Irish didn't pick a great year to play an ACC schedule. Except for Florida State, the rest of the conference has taken a nosedive. It's not really Duke's fault. I'm sure they would love to have Riley Leonard during this tough stretch for them. Next up is a Clemson team that hasn't lost three in a row since 2010. Not only that, but the Irish haven't won in Death Valley (east) since 1977. Will Clemson rally around that? They can, and it still won't matter. Notre Dame's defense is going to feast.
I'm sorry Clemson fans, but you totally deserve this. I know some of you didn't agree, and I feel for you. I really do. But I also know that you were nowhere near the majority in this decision.
(10) Mississippi over Texas A&M
I know that the Aggie defense is strong, but that offense worries me. They have a ton of talent at receiver, but Max Johnson hasn't shown the ability to consistently get the ball to any of them. Johnson is the epitome of the dreaded "game manager." I'm sorry, but they're not waltzing into Oxford and beating the Rebels without a quarterback.
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