Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Champ or Chump: Shed Long and Tommy Edman

With 2019 basically in the books, a lot of fantasy baseball content is starting to focus on 2020: namely early picks in 2020. While a lot of owners agonize over whether to take Christian Yelich or Ronald Acuna Jr. with the second overall pick, the truth is that the decision isn't likely to matter so much. You would probably be ecstatic with either, barring a significant injury that there's no real way to predict beforehand.

While 2020 prep is important, it shouldn't center on the top guys but rather lesser talents with profit potential to help you win your league. In the same vein, you want to avoid 2019 "breakouts" that seem destined to fade into obscurity. Two interesting names to consider are Shed Long and Tommy Edman.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expectations. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're seen as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're perceived as a Tier 1 pitcher. All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at Long and Edman, shall we?

Editor's Note: Get any full-season MLB Premium Pass for 50% off, with exclusive access to our season-long articles, 15 in-season lineup tools and over 200 days of expert DFS research/tools. Sign Up Now!


Shed Long (2B/OF, SEA)

15% Owned

Long has put up solid MLB numbers in 2019, but nothing spectacular: .286/.354/.496 with five homers and three steals (three CS) over 147 PAs. His scouting report suggests that his batting average might be a drag in fantasy, but he has power and speed potential that owners covet.

According to the FanGraphs team, Long's hit tool is mediocre (40 now, 45 future) while his game power is middling (40 now, 50 future). However, there is something to dream about: both his wheels and raw power earn grades of 55, giving him considerable fantasy upside even if he doesn't necessarily become a reliable big-league regular. Baseball Savant gives Long 50-grade hit, power, and running tools, noting that he could be Seattle's second baseman of the future despite considerable swing and miss in his game.

Statcast largely concurs with these assessments of Long's raw skills. He brings plus foot speed to the table (27.7 ft./sec Statcast Sprint), with roughly league-average airborne exit velocity (91.5 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (7.1%). It is a small sample size, and Long is young enough that giant leaps forward are still theoretically possible.

Scouting reports are the reason to be interested in Long, as he doesn't have too much to hang his hat on in his MiLB resume. He first cracked the High Minors in 2017, slashing an unremarkable .227/.319/.362 with three homers and steals in 160 Double-A PAs. He walked a lot (11.9 BB%) while avoiding Ks (19.4 K%), but a .271 BABIP despite a relatively low 34.6 FB% doomed his season line. Long returned to the level in 2018 and put up his best professional season (.261/.353/.413 with 12 HR, 19 SB in 522 PAs) with similar plate discipline (10.9 BB%, 23.6 K%) and a better BABIP (.333).

The performance earned Long a shot at Triple-A in 2019, but he wasn't great when you factor in the extreme hitter's environment in the Pacific Coast League. He hit .274/.335/.460 with nine homers and a steal over 250 PAs, adding three CS for a terrible 25% success rate. He walked less (8 BB%) while striking out more (26 K%), and his FB% declined further (30.6%).

Long has flashed reasonable plate discipline in the Show (9.5 BB%, 23.8 K%), but his average has been buoyed by a high .355 BABIP. His 33.7% fly ball rate also suggests that Long will need a swing change to truly unlock his power potential. The 24-year old is raw, so you don't want to spend for him as if he's a sure thing. However, he is an intriguing upside play to consider later in your drafts.

Verdict: Champ (assuming you don't need to pay as though he's a sure thing)


Tommy Edman (2B/3B,  STL)

64% Owned

Every year, the Cardinals seem to wring quality production out of a total nobody who subsequently fades into obscurity (Allen Craig), mediocrity (Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty), or Tampa Bay (Tommy Pham). Edman differs from these players in that he's not primarily an outfielder, but he seems likely to be a fantasy afterthought as soon as 2021.

Edman's devil magic year has consisted of a .297/.337/.494 line with 11 HR and 14 SB (one CS) thus far, but it's fair to say that his season has come out of nowhere. His .338 BABIP is rooted primarily in a 24.5 LD% that he has no MiLB history of sustaining, so figure on some batting average regression. His average airborne exit velocity (91 mph) and rate of Brls/BBE (5.3%) are both below league average, so the under on his 12.9% HR/FB is a safe bet as well. Throw in a 34.1% fly ball rate that is neither high enough for power or low enough to inflate his BABIP, and you're left with a pretty bland offensive profile.

Scouts are even more pessimistic about Edman's fantasy future. FanGraphs sees a 50/55 hit tool and 55-grade speed, but 30 game power and 40 raw power that limit his offensive upside in today's game. Baseball Savant splits the difference with a 35 power grade plus 55 hit and speed, noting that he "probably profiles best as a utilityman" while stating that "a defense-minded regular isn't out of the question." Neither of those is a favorable outcome in our game.

This only gets worse if you consider his MiLB resume. Edman first reached Double-A in 2017, where he didn't strikeout (14.2 K%) but didn't do anything else fantasy owners would care about (.257/.338/.357, two homers, five steals) in 239 PAs. He returned to the level in 2018, slashing a much better .299/.350/.403 with six homers and 27 steals in 498 PAs. There was still no power, but at least he had a good SB success rate (five CS) and low strikeout totals (15.3 K%). Any successful fantasy seasons in Edman's future are likely to look like this.

The performance earned Edman a promotion to Triple-A, where he slashed .318/.382/.394 with a homer and three steals in 76 PAs. He began 2019 at the same level, and while his .305/.356/.513 batting line was good his steals plummeted considerably (nine in 218 PAs). Edman can fly (29.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed), but the steals won't come if he chooses not to run.

In short, Edman's 2019 numbers far exceed his likely value heading into 2020. This isn't a great place to put your fantasy dollars next year.

Verdict: Chump (based on zero power potential and questionable SB totals)

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice

More Recent Articles


Keep Stashing Running Backs the Right Way

Hells to the yeah, my fellow #AllBenchRB truthers. For those of you who don’t know what #AllBenchRB is, let me give you a short recap before I get to the goods. #AllBenchRB is a strategy I’ve coined where you fill your bench with, as the name implies, only RBs. Or at least as many running... Read More

Warning Signs: Saquon Barkley, David Johnson, Aaron Rodgers

Another week, another bout of crazy results. While survivor pools came to a screeching halt with the Saints and Colts losing, there were also some worrying situations that crept up for fantasy teams. This week brings many questions. What should we do with the Atlanta run game? The answer there is nothing. How do we... Read More

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 11) - Targets and Avoids

Doomsday finally arrived. The Falcons' domination of the Saints eliminated the majority of remaining entrants in survivor pools. If you avoided the Saints, odds are you took the Colts in the late game. Of course, the Dolphins beat them as well. More upsets were found as the Titans beat the Chiefs, the Steelers manhandled the... Read More

Quarterback Leaderboards At Midseason - NFL Next Gen Stats

We've consumed our first "double-digit week" set of games. That means we've entered the final part of the season and, in fact, the fantasy football playoffs are closer than you may realize. There are just three more weeks to go until we hit Week 14 and celebrate our presence in the run for the chip,... Read More

Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Cooper Kupp

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More

The Tape Tells All - Christian Kirk Fantasy Analysis

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk, who broke out in Week 10, catching three touchdowns. Kirk seems to have... Read More

Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - Darius Slayton, Christian Kirk, Kareem Hunt

Whether due to their own play, the play of others, or injuries, players' stock increases and decreases on a weekly basis. Perhaps more than any other, the NFL is a league that experiences ups and downs at a rapid pace. With only 16 games, there’s little room for error and seemingly endless opportunities for improvement.... Read More

FAAB Bidding - Week 11 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More

Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's crunch time, with precious few games left before the fantasy regular season ends. There aren't many new names emerging on the waiver wire at this juncture but the RB situations in Atlanta and Detroit bear watching, while the Jets passing game has shown signs of life. No, really. Each week, we will advise you... Read More

Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 11

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-7 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-2 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More

Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More

Week 11 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 11, and we're getting closer and closer to the fantasy football playoffs. The consistent options are getting more and more clear, especially at the kicking position. We're also going to start dealing with everyone's favorite factor, which is inclement weather, especially up north. The margin for error in these weeks is slim, and... Read More

Week 10 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

In Week 10, Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas all had beatable cornerback matchups and finished as the top-four wide receivers in PPR scoring. At running back, Derrick Henry exploited a poor Chiefs run defense and rumbled for 188 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the week. Ronald... Read More

The Cut List - Players on the Chopping Block (Week 11)

This is your weekly list of players to drop. I will do my best to limit this list to injured players and players you might consider holding. If you roster pure handcuffs or backups, obviously you can let them go at any time. The players on this list will, ideally, be guys that aren't clearly... Read More

Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 11. Some of you are in the favorable position of only needing slight modifications to rosters that are destined to enter the fantasy playoffs. But many of you are still searching for the most effective... Read More