RADIO
This week, most columns like this one are focusing on those that made the All-Star team - after all, fantasy leagues are going through a quiet week because of it. I'm going to zig when the others zag because my team lost and instead cover players that were not involved in the game.
Two were All-Stars in most everyone's opinion heading into the season, but it is easy to see how they didn't make it. The third is an utility infielder that has an All-Star worthy line. We'll start with him.
Editor’s Note: to read about more players that can help your teams, be sure to check out our famous waiver wire pickups list which is a running list that is updated daily.
Justin Turner (3B, LAD)
Where the heck did .308/.377/.538 with 11 bombs come from? Turner is setting his career numbers on fire, already one shy of his professional best in HR (12 at Triple-A in 2010) while maintaining an ISO of .231, nearly 50 points better than his professional high of .183 in 2010. He is doing this with an elite average as well, helping fantasy teams with his production and versatility. But will it continue?
The power is almost surely a mirage, as Turner has no history or pedigree of plus power. His current HR/FB of 18% screams regression, and I'm thinking he'll get more flyouts than doubles when it does. His average is likewise supported by a high .333 BABIP, but that may have a bit more staying power. Throughout his minor league career, he posted elevated BABIPs, and this year's number actually represents regression from last season's .404. His career BABIP is .324, but it is driven by the fact that a third of his career PAs have come in the last two seasons. Can he sustain it long-term?
He probably will not sustain his 27.5% liner rate, which has a lot to do with his average and ISO. That will be particularly problematic for Turner, who posts dreadful BABIPs on both grounders (.197, average is .247) and flies (.100, .209). His .760 BABIP on line drives combined with their ridiculous frequency is literally making his entire season. He does have a high career liner rate (23.8%), so while it is likely the liners will decline they may not vanish completely. His minor league history supports the limited major league data that argues Turner excels at line drives, so maybe Turner is a high average fantasy option going forward.
At first glance, Turner's average potential is buoyed by a decline in strikeout rate - from 18% to 16.2% this season. That is an elite figure! Unfortunately, Turner's whiff rate is actually up compared to last year, from 6.9% to 8.2%. That is still above average, but it does not support the huge drop off in Ks so far. Obviously, more Ks mean lower batting average. In what can only be described as a bizarre statistical quirk, Turner is seeing more strikes this season (from 46.9% last year to 48.4% this) but fewer first pitch strikes (from 60.9% to 56.7%). That means that more of his strikes come when he is ahead in the count, leading to better pitches to hit and perhaps all of the line drives. One would think that won't continue, but you never know.
Finally, Turner does not have the versatility that many expect from him. In 2014, he appeared in 20 games only at 3B, and he is on pace to do so again. Many leagues set the positional eligibility threshold at 20, so Turner will miss it despite appearing in a handful of games all over the infield. To conclude, Turner's production is completely predicated on line drives hit while being ahead in the count. He should not be able to sustain this, but minor league history and limited MLB data suggest that he might be able to, at least to some extent. If you received the benefit of his first half, you are likely well on your way to winning your league. He didn't cost you anything to acquire, so there is nothing wrong with riding his hot streak out. With minimal risk (though the Dodgers have about 100 people that deserve playing time), anything he does from this point forward is pure profit. Sounds like a champ to me.
Verdict: Champ
Jose Abreu (1B, CWS)
In the preseason I panned Abreu, arguing that his first half offered elite power based on a ludicrous HR/FB, his second half elite average based on a ludicrous BABIP, and his price demanded both when he had never sustained the two of them. Judging from his .296/.343/.492 line, Abreu decided to be the average hitter and has largely sustained the ridiculous BABIP he had last season (from .356 to .342) to do it. With last season's second half and this year's first, Abreu has now enjoyed a full season of BABIP luck - and these things do not typically last longer than that.
Warning signs already abound. Last year's elevated 23.3% liner rate has normalized to 21.9%, while his IFFB% is up from 8.2% to 12.9%. These two factors should torpedo a BABIP taken together, but Abreu's has hung on thanks to a .286 BABIP on groundballs. Abreu is not fast enough to sustain that, and his entire offensive game will crumble when it does.
In terms of plate discipline, Abreu is not familiar with the term. Last year's solid 8.2% walk rate has declined to a 4.4% rate so far this season, rooted in a horrible 41% O-Swing%. That means that he goes fishing for balls outside of the zone more than 10% more often than an average MLB hitter. Someone told him to swing less, and he is - at strikes. While his terrible O-Swing% remains unchanged from last season, his Z-Swing% is down significantly - from 75.4% to 66.9%. That means that he does not swing at a third of balls in the zone while chasing four out of every 10 out of it - ouch. His whiff rate is down from 14.4% to 11.1%, but that is still below average and likely rooted in the fact that he is swinging less overall. There is really no reason to throw him a strike, making a decent average impossible moving forward.
Maybe the power will come back to make up for it? No, as his 14 bombs so far have him on a pace for less than 30. His HR/FB has not fully normalized yet, sitting at 20% from last year's 26.9%. More concerning, however, is a strong groundball tendency. His GB% is over 50% this year, way too high for a supposedly elite slugger that should be good at elevating the ball. If the HR/FB goes to a more normal 10-12% range, Abreu might not crack double digits. Abreu's RBI production has also fallen off, though that is more of an indictment of the Sox as a whole than Abreu in particular.
The Cell is a poor excuse for a MLB park, so Abreu likely hits double digit bombs as long as he remains a White Sox. Still, the HR/FB could go down and the BABIP will. He has no real supporting cast, and one of his few MLB caliber teammates (Adam Laroche) should probably be playing Abreu's position right now. Projections systems like ZIPS and Steamer think Abreu will age badly, problematic when luck is already his defining characteristic. Run away, run far and don't look back.
Verdict: Chump
Matt Harvey (SP, NYM)
Rather famously coming off Tommy John surgery, Harvey has gone 8-6 with a 3.07 ERA and 3.53 FIP in his return to Gotham. His 8.81 K/9 are down from his pre-surgery 9.64, which was itself shy of a fabulous 10.62 debut effort in 2012. Since his major league data is limited, it is worth pointing out that he averaged a little over a strikeout per inning in the High Minors. With mortal strikeout totals, it is tough to justify his current 81.4% strand rate. The loss in Ks might be acceptable if BBs followed suit, but their actually up to 2.10/9 from 1.56 in 2013. Still solid, but no longer elite.
He has also been rather fortunate with balls in play. While his .274 BABIP is on the low side of the normal range, the Mets defense has been dreadful. If you didn't know, the Mets recently improved their defense by moving their starting SS to 2B, the 2B to 3B, and the 3B to SS - upgrading their defense at three different positions without changing personnel! How's that for inefficient roster utilization? Anyway, Harvey was lucky to have an above average BABIP with that defense behind him, though since the defense has improved it may be sustainable going forward. Harvey's 17.8% LD% could still normalize, or the infield could go back to a wonky configuration however, so anything is possible.
More disconcerting to most Mets fans is a new-found proneness to gopheritis, as Harvey's HR/FB has skyrocketed from 4.7% to 12.4%. This is in some part Sandy Alderson's doing, as he keeps pushing in the Citi Field fences so mediocre power hitters can hit HR. When you do that, your pitchers also allow more bombs. It is also likely that 4.7% was never sustainable, with or without surgery. Going forward, a rate higher than 4.7% but lower than 12.4% should be expected.
Perhaps most importantly, Harvey still has most of his stuff from before his procedure. His average fastball velocity is down (95.4 to 94.9 mph), but it still generates whiffs at an above average 11.3% rate. The slider continues to serve as Harvey's wipe out pitch, being chased out of the zone 34.8% of the time and whiffed at a 17.1% clip. The change of pace is no longer being chased out of the zone at a high rate (from 44.4% to 28.9%), but does still generate whiffs at an above average 15.3% clip (was 17.7%). Harvey does not have a pitch that batters chase too often, but his stuff is still sharp enough to beat MLB hitters in the zone. So, where are the Ks?
While all of the pitches above remain weapons, Harvey is employing them less often - fastballs are down 4.2%, sliders 3.1%, and changeups 4%. A two seamer replaces them, and it has been bad. Its 3.7% SwStr% is singlehandedly responsible for both a decline in overall whiff rate (12.6% to 11.6%) as well as the reduced strikeout rate. Batters also tee off on it, hitting for a .351 average with a .509 slugging percentage. Otherwise, the fastball's BAA is Harvey's worst at .249. The 2-seamer does get grounders at a 51.1% rate, but is it worth it? Harvey has great stuff, but is currently choosing not to use it 13% of the time. By using it more often, he would be a better pitcher.
The Mets are not an outstanding team even if they are currently over .500, so I worry about Harvey's short term wins potential. This six-man rotation nonsense is also detrimental to fantasy owners in weekly formats, as Harvey rarely if ever gets those coveted two start weeks. Harvey is also on record as not wanting to go off of routine, and he has walked a few more people with the extra rest. Maybe he's on to something? A more forward thinking franchise would have scrapped the 2 seamer by now and ensured standard rest, but since this is the Mets I have my doubts. Harvey will right the ship eventually, but maybe not this year.
Verdict: Chump
