Champ or Chump: Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, and Jazz Chisolm Jr. Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

July 30, 2024

Are recent trade deadline acquisitions Isaac Paredes (Cubs), Randy Arozarena (Mariners), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) fantasy breakouts, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks takes a deep dive into their 2024 fantasy baseball value in redraft leagues.

It's trade deadline day, and fantasy managers are scrambling to keep up with all the moves. A.J. Puk and Hunter Harvey were once top saves specs, but both were traded before "the guy" on their former clubs. That makes them Chumps. Similarly, Jason Adam and Carlos Estevez enter situations where they'll get fewer saves than before. That makes them Chumps too.

The other big deadline surprise has been Tampa Bay. Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena will likely be two of the bigger names traded this year, but they aren't locks to produce for their new clubs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was traded from the Marlins to the Yankees, but the fit may not be as good as you might initially expect.

Let's take a closer look at three of the biggest deadline acquisitions.

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Isaac Paredes (1B/2B/3B, CHC) 89% Rostered

Paredes is a classic example of the Rays taking someone nobody's ever heard of and turning them into a star. He hit .250/.352/.488 with 31 HR in 2023 and followed up with a .245/.357/.435 with 16 HR over 429 PAs this season. The strange thing is nothing in his profile screams "slugger".

First, Paredes doesn't hit the ball hard. His Statcast profile has more blue than his new uniform:

Paredes makes up for this by hitting an insane number of fly balls (50.5% FB%), allowing his pedestrian 10.7% HR/FB to translate into impressive HR totals. Paredes also has a 45.3% Pull% on his flies, targeting "cheap" homers.

The approach is viable but works best in hitter-friendly ballparks. Per Statcast, Tropicana Field has a 103 HR factor for right-handed hitters from 2022-2024. Wrigley Field has a 97 HR factor for right-handed hitters, substantially less hitter-friendly than the Trop. Baseball Savant's xHR metric states that Paredes would have 19 HR if he played all his games in Tampa but just 11 in Chicago. If the park switch makes Paredes a .245 hitter with 15 HR, he's not fantasy-viable.

That would be problematic. Paredes boasts excellent plate discipline with a 15.9% K% and 12.1% BB% supported by peripherals (26.2% chase rate, 7.0% SwStr%), but his walks depend on keeping pitchers honest. If he loses his pop, they'll challenge him and the walks will dry up.

Likewise, Paredes' extreme fly ball tendency comes with a 22% IFFB%. His .260 BABIP is 17 points higher than his career mark of .243, and his .214 xBA suggests huge batting average downside.

Paredes consistently hit in the heart of Tampa's batting order, maximizing his counting stat opportunities. He's expected to hit fifth for the Cubs, a role that could suppress his R+RBI. The Rays also have a 99 wRC+ as a team, beating the Cubs mark of 95.

It's rare for a trade deadline acquisition to join a worse lineup in a less important role, but that's what happened. Paredes is a Chump who probably belongs on waivers in standard leagues.

Randy Arozarena (OF, TB) 96% Rostered

Arozarena's overall line of .215/.322/.394 with 15 HR and 16 SB over 419 PAs is underwhelming, but that's largely the result of a dreadful April (.143/.220/.241 with a 29.3% K%) and bad May (.178/.299/.400, 28% K%). His play since has been up to Arozarena's standard.

Sadly, Arozarena was shipped to an even worse environment than Paredes. Tropicana is a pitcher's park for right-handed hitters with a 96 park factor for hits and runs, more than canceling out its 103 HR factor.

However, Seattle's T-Mobile Park is the worst park for right-handed hitters. Its 85 runs factor is five points lower than the next-lowest park, while its 90 hits factor takes a big bite out of any Mariner's batting average. Seattle's 95 wRC+ is tied with the Cubs, meaning that Arozarena is moving to a weaker overall lineup. His counting stats will likely suffer as a result.

Arozarena has been caught stealing seven times this season, giving him a 70% success rate that may not earn a green light on a team in the thick of the playoff hunt. Arozarena is too skilled to drop, but he's a Chump relative to expectations from two weeks ago.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (OF, NYY) 97% Rostered

Chisholm's .248/.322/.404 line over 435 PAs is meh, but carries a lot of fantasy juice with 13 HR and 23 SB. He's always been a guy with more physical tools than statistics, and many are hoping Yankee Stadium could be exactly what he needs to bridge the disconnect.

Unfortunately, the ballpark switch isn't as favorable as you think. Chisholm had stark home/road splits before the trade, hitting .225 at LoanDepot and .277 everywhere else. However, his career splits aren't as dramatic and slightly favor Miami (.250 vs. .242).

"But it's so easy to homer in the Bronx!" you might be saying. Yankee Stadium has a huge advantage for left-handed batters, with a left-handed HR factor of 122 to Miami's 101. However, homers aren't the extent of offense. Miami is the much better park for hits (106 vs. 91) and overall runs (106 vs. 96), meaning we should expect Chisholm's average to decrease.

If Chisholm's average declines, he'll lose SB opportunities as well. The Yankees don't want to run into outs in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, so Chisholm is expected to hit fifth moving forward. He was the leadoff hitter in Miami, so his new role will produce fewer PAs and runs scored even in New York's superior lineup.

More homers might make up for that, but that isn't guaranteed. Chisholm has the best plate discipline of his career with a 9.0% BB% and 24.8% K% (7.7% BB%, 28% K% career). There's also much less swing-and-miss than last year (12.5% SwStr% vs. 15.2% in 2023).

The trade-off is a decline in contact quality. In 2023, Chisholm averaged 96.5 mph on his airborne batted balls with a 12.2% rate of Brls/BBE. This year, those numbers are down to 94.6 mph and 10.6%. Chisholm may be tempted to go back to his free-swinging ways to take advantage of Yankee Stadium, or he might not experience the power uptick many are expecting. Either way, his value takes a hit.

The Yankees need a 3B, and there are rumors Chisholm will be deployed there at times. He's never played the position professionally, however, forcing him to learn something new. You should try to trade this Chump while the prevailing wisdom believes the trade will be positive for his fantasy value.

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