X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Dustin Pedroia and Evan Longoria

It is time for the fantasy community to realize that we collectively suffer from an age bias. Sure, a 35-year old is unlikely to break out in the same manner a 23-year old could, but he is also less likely to turn into an overhyped bust. Youth and experience should be balanced on most fantasy rosters, with safe investments mitigating the risk presented by upside plays.

With that in mind, two veterans are profiled below. Dustin Pedroia just had a career year at age 32, while Evan Longoria turned back the clock to slam 36 bombs in 2016. Should fantasy owners invest in an encore performance? Let's find out.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dustin Pedroia (2B, BOS) ADP: 129.3

Raise your hand if you saw a .318/.376/.449 line with 15 bombs and seven swipes coming for Boston's aging second sacker. If you're raising your hand right now, you're lying. Pedroia's four CS probably mean that the steals should not be expected to return, but everything else seems sustainable in his upcoming age 33 campaign.

Pedroia's .339 BABIP last year may not repeat, but he does project as a plus BABIP guy. His career average is .315, he is allergic to fly balls (26.8% FB% last season), and he just set a personal best IFFB% of 8.6%. Calling Fenway home is also a plus for BABIP. His BABIP luck was moderately high (a .275 BABIP on ground balls against a career rate of .267, for example), but was not too outrageous. His 24.2% LD% should revert closer to his 20.9% career rate, but otherwise his BABIP should be about the same.

Pedroia also keeps his average up by rarely striking out. Last season's 10.5% K% was nothing short of excellent, while his 4.8% SwStr% suggests that it was close to his true talent level. His eye is also a plus (26% O-Swing% last year) and plate discipline tends to age well, so the pieces are in place for Pedroia to age gracefully. Boston's potent lineup should also allow him to contribute significantly in the counting categories even if he has a down year.

Pedroia's pop is questionable, but this was also true in 2016. His 9.9% HR/FB does not seem too high to repeat, while his aforementioned 26.8% FB% is already low. Pedroia gets his power numbers by batting a bunch of times, not with any real power skill. While he is older, there is no reason to dock Pedroia's playing time projection until he actually starts missing time. Therefore, he should hit 15ish homers again. It's not exciting, but it works for fantasy.

Verdict: Champ
Evan Longoria (3B, TB) ADP: 101

Fantasy owners can always appreciate 36 dingers, especially if they come attached to a solid .273/.318/.521 triple slash line. Despite seemingly being older, Longoria is only 31 years old and has recorded at least 670 PAs four years running. Like Pedroia, there is no reason to dock his playing time projection yet.

I also see little reason to dock his power projection. Longoria's HR spike came with a sizable jump in both FB% (40.4% to 46.8%) and HR/FB (10.8% to 15.5%) relative to the year before. The FB% increase is a great indicator, and the fact that he managed to pull far more fly balls (28%) than the previous season (21.1%) helps me to trust the increased HR/FB as well.

Statcast data likes Longoria too. His 57 Barrels were tied for sixth among all MLB batters last season, indicating that he was well above average at squaring up the baseball. Last year's 11.9% SwStr% was a career worst, but is still perfectly fine if he is swinging harder to generate more power. The resulting 21% K% was still league average, so it is not as though Longoria has turned into Adam Dunn 2.0.

There is some slight batting average downside here, as batted ball luck was required to produce last season's .298 BABIP. His career rate is .301, but Longoria is shiftable (.265 vs. traditional shift, .315 without it) and enjoyed particularly productive line drives (.762 vs. .738 career). Still, a 30-bomb bat at this price is hard to argue with, especially with a lineup slot that is almost guaranteed to be favorable.

Verdict: Champ

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Austin Hays

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Deiveson Figueiredo

Return To Action
Tyler Stephenson

Activated From 10-Day Injured List
Cory Sandhagen

Set For UFC Des Moines Main Event
Bo Nickal

Set For Co-Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

An Underdog At UFC Des Moines
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks To Win Second Consecutive Fight
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Marcos

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Blade Tidwell

Promoted To Major Leagues
Carolina Panthers

Ulcerative Colitis Kept Hunter Renfrow Out Of NFL In 2024
Montel Jackson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jorbit Vivas

Heading To The Bronx
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Sign First-Rounder Tyler Booker To Four-Year Deal
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Trying To Get Something Done With Trey Hendrickson?
Carolina Panthers

Nothing Guaranteed Beyond 2025 For Adam Thielen
Cameron Smotherman

Set For His Second UFC Bout
Serhiy Sidey

A Favorite At UFC Des Moines
Mason Jones

Set To Open Up UFC Des Moines Main Card
Jeremy Stephens

Returns For UFC Des Moines
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Lands On The 10-Day Injured List
Mike Trout

Lands On The 10-Day Injured List With A Bone Bruise
Mikko Rantanen

Finishes Game 6 Loss With Four Points
Roope Hintz

Notches Four Points In Losing Effort
Cale Makar

Enjoys Three-Point Night Thursday
Nathan MacKinnon

Collects Three Points In Crucial Win
Mark Stone

Continues To Heat Up Thursday
William Nylander

Leads The Way In Game 6 Victory
Connor Brown

Tallies Three Points In Series-Clincher
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Don't Exercise Zion Johnson's Fifth-Year Option
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option For Kaiir Elam
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Expect Trevon Diggs To Start Camp On The PUP List
Jake Burger

Optioned To Minors
Bobby Witt Jr.

Extends Hitting Streak To 22 Games With Homer
Tennessee Titans

Titans Don't Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Green Bay Packers

Packers Don't Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Quay Walker
Seiya Suzuki

Puts On Power Display In Win Over Pirates
Mike Trout

Out Of Thursday's Lineup
Walker Buehler

Getting Testing On His Shoulder, Won't Start Friday
Kristian Campbell

Scratched With Rib Discomfort
Juan Soto

Busts Out With Two Homers In Thursday's Loss
Isaiah Stewart

Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Moving To Second Line Thursday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Have Knee Surgery
Frederik Andersen

Expected To Return To Practice Friday
Mark Scheifele

Won't Play In Game 6
Pavel Dorofeyev

Out On Thursday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Giants Place Tyler Fitzgerald On 10-Day Injured List With Rib Fracture
Jason Robertson

Upgraded To Day-To-Day
Miro Heiskanen

Ruled Out For Game 6
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Add Collin Johnson To Wide Receiver Room
Chicago Bears

Colston Loveland A "Natural Fit" In Ben Johnson's Offense
Salvador Perez

Leaves Early On Thursday With Hip Soreness
Cincinnati Bengals

Samaje Perine Expected To Have A Passing-Down Role
Miami Dolphins

Dolphins Expected To Move On From Jalen Ramsey Soon
Shota Imanaga

Expected To Make His Next Start
Tennessee Titans

Chimere Dike Has "Flexibility" To Play All Wide Receiver Positions
Justin Martinez

Diamondbacks Place Justin Martinez On 15-Day Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Kyle Higashioka

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Corey Seager

Targeting Saturday Return
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Exercise Charles Cross' Fifth-Year Option
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Decline Kenyon Green's Fifth-Year Option
Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars Not Picking Up Devin Lloyd's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Jaxson Dart Expected To Sit And Learn In 2025
Arizona Cardinals

Jonathan Gannon Excited For Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Second Season
Alexis Díaz

Alexis Diaz Optioned To Triple-A
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Filip Gustavsson

On Track To Play Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Caps Off First Round With Multi-Point Effort
Eetu Luostarinen

Explodes For Four Points In Series-Clincher
Dylan Strome

Extends Point Streak With Two Assists
Alex Ovechkin

Pots 30th Playoff Power-Play Goal
Kyle Connor

Ties Jets Record With Fourth Three-Point Playoff Game
Mark Scheifele

Injured In Game 5
New York Giants

Evan Neal Moving To Offensive Guard
Chris Sale

Strikes Out 10
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Waive Malik Davis
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Logs Massive Triple-Double In Game 5
Maxi Kleber

Listed As Questionable For Game 5
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Rob Dillingham

Out On Wednesday
Jae'Sean Tate

Still Out On Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed As Probable For Wednesday
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF