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Rob takes a deep dive into Calvin Ridley’s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023. Is Ridley worth his current draft price or does he have bust potential?
Calvin Ridley may be one of the bigger conundrums for fantasy football managers this season. Despite not having played a full season since 2020, he is currently being drafted as the WR20 on Yahoo! in half-PPR scoring. Ridley is being selected ahead of players such as D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, and Jerry Jeudy. Fantasy managers appear to be largely unfazed by his long absence from football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2023 season as one of the darlings of the NFL. With their offense running through star quarterback Trevor Lawrence and with Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson entering his second season, there are plenty of reasons for excitement. This feeling has carried over to Ridley, as managers remember his Atlanta days when he seemed to be on the verge of stardom. Should fantasy managers be optimistic that Ridley will recapture his old form? Should they be concerned he hasn't played football for a year and a half? What about the growing pains of being on a new team with a new quarterback? In this article, we'll discuss whether you should be in or out on Ridley based on his current price.
You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:
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Calvin Ridley's Time in Atlanta
When we think of Ridley's time as a Falcon, we often remember him being the team's No. 2 receiver behind Julio Jones. Ridley eventually became Atlanta's No. 1 target after Jones started to decline. He exploded in 2020 for a monster season. However, other than that one year, Ridley never had more than 875 yards or 95 targets in a season. That seems somewhat hard to believe, considering how many perceive Ridley's time with the Falcons.
The table below shows Ridley's counting stats from his four years in Atlanta and how they translated into fantasy football success.
| Year | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | TD Rate | Half-PPR |
| 2021 (5 games) | 52 | 31 | 281 | 2 | 3.8% | 11.3 (WR24) |
| 2020 (15 games) | 143 | 90 | 1,374 | 9 | 6.2% | 16.4 (WR4) |
| 2019 (13 games) | 93 | 63 | 866 | 7 | 7.5% | 12.7 (WR16) |
| 2018 (16 games) | 92 | 64 | 821 | 10 | 10.8% | 10.9 (WR25) |
Between 2018 and 2020, Jones was in prime form and racked up 328 targets, 217 receptions, and 3,061 receiving yards in those seasons. Despite playing with Jones, arguably the greatest receiver of the past 10 years, Ridley made his mark during his first two seasons in the NFL. However, for fantasy football purposes, a lot of that was due to an unsustainable touchdown rate.
Fantasy managers are well aware that Ridley only played five games in 2021 due to mental health concerns. He also missed three games during the 2019 campaign due to an abdominal injury and remarkably played half of the 2020 season on a broken foot. Following his season-long suspension in 2022 related to betting on NFL games, Ridley reflected on his NFL journey in an article that you can read here.
Let's take a look at Ridley's per-game stats during his last three seasons in Atlanta. In the table below, you can see his per-game averages from 2019 to 2021. The numbers in parentheses reflect how his per-game stats would have translated to a 17-game season.
| Year | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game |
| 2021 | 10.40 (177) | 6.20 (105) | 56.2 (955) |
| 2020 | 9.53 (162) | 6.00 (102) | 91.6 (1,557) |
| 2019 | 7.15 (122) | 4.85 (82) | 66.6 (1,132) |
Ridley's targets and receptions per game increased every year, but 2021 marked a significant decline in his receiving yards per game. Some of this could be due to the small sample, but quarterback Matt Ryan and the entire Atlanta offense struggled that season.
Ridley's efficiency metrics paint a very similar picture. The table below shows that Ridley had a marked improvement from 2019 to 2020 before some of his metrics took a sharp decline in 2021.
| Year | Target Share | Target Per Route Run | Air Yards Per Game | Air Yard Share | Yards Per Route Run | Yards Per Target |
| 2021 | 27.4% (7th) | 27.2% (18th) | 103.4 (5th) | 40.0% (4th) | 1.47 (72nd) | 5.4 (95th) |
| 2020 | 25.8% (10th) | 25.9% (13th) | 137.5 (1st) | 41.2% (2nd) | 2.48 (7th) | 9.6 (20th) |
| 2019 | 17.7% (53rd) | 20.9% (65th) | 97.4 (15th) | 25.6% (41st) | 1.95 (47th) | 9.3 (21st) |
While Ridley's yards per route run and yards per target decreased significantly in 2021, his target share and targets per route run remained elite. The excellent target-earning potential he displayed during the 2020 and 2021 seasons should give fantasy managers optimism that Ridley could be in line for a big season in 2023.
Matt Ryan vs. Trevor Lawrence
When Ridley was in Atlanta, quarterback Matt Ryan was approaching the twilight of his career. Ridley's new quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, is about to enter the prime of his career. NFL quarterbacks have also made big jumps under their coaches during their second seasons together.
Some recent examples are Ryan under Kyle Shanahan, Aaron Rodgers under Matt LaFleur, and most recently Jalen Hurts under Nick Sirianni. Lawrence, entering his second season under coach Doug Pederson, should continue a similar trend.
When comparing Ryan's stats from 2019 to 2021 to Lawrence's stats from 2022, we see a lot of similarities between the two. As you can see from the table below, Lawrence was already performing at a similar level to Ryan when Ridley's fantasy exploits were at their highest.
| Quarterback | Completion Percentage | On-Target % | TD Rate | YPA | IAY/PA | QB Rating |
| T, Lawrence (2022) | 66.3% | 76.1% | 4.3% | 7.0 | 7.4 | 95.2 |
| M, Ryan (2021) | 67.0% | 78.1% | 3.6% | 7.1 | 7.1 | 90.4 |
| M, Ryan (2020) | 65.0% | 75.5% | 4.2% | 7.3 | 8.5 | 93.3 |
| M, Ryan (2019) | 66.2% | 75.3% | 4.2% | 7.3 | 8.1 | 92.1 |
However, Lawrence should be even better in 2023. Looking at the first and second-half splits from 2022, fantasy managers can observe a substantial difference in Lawrence's play. This makes a lot of sense. Last season, he was working within a new system with new teammates such as Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. However, it didn't take too long for everything to start clicking. With the addition of Ridley to the mix and another offseason of practice, the ceiling for Lawrence is increasingly high.
| Time | Pass EPA/Play | Success % | Completion % | TD Rate | Int Rate | YPA |
| Weeks 1–8 | 0.062 | 51.3% | 62.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 6.37 |
| Weeks 9–20 | 0.178 | 54.5% | 67.4% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 7.05 |
The table above displays two completely different quarterbacks. From Week 9 until the Jaguars' playoff loss to the Chiefs, Lawrence was downright dominant. All of his numbers across the board improved significantly. If you compare his stats from Week 9 through the Divisional Round to Matt Ryan's numbers from 2019 through 2021, fantasy managers can see a stark difference between the two passers. Lawrence represents a significant improvement over what Ridley had under center in Atlanta.
What To Expect From Calvin Ridley in 2023
Ridley's potential in Jacksonville is exciting and that is being recognized in his current price, which stands at WR20. The Jaguars are bringing back Kirk, Engram, and Jones, three of their top pass catchers in 2022. They combined for 352 targets (59% of the team's targets), 239 receptions (60.5%), 2,697 yards (65%), and 17 touchdowns (68%).
Ridley will be replacing former Jaguars receiver Marvin Jones Jr. Jones only had 81 targets, 46 receptions, 529 yards, and three touchdowns. Ridley is certainly going to command a bigger share of the pie than Jones did in 2022.
Last season, Jacksonville had 596 pass attempts, ranking 10th in the NFL. However, it shouldn't be surprising if the Jaguars don't pass quite as often as they did last year. They should be a much better football team and will most likely be the top dog in what is believed to be an otherwise weak AFC South division.
This could lead to Jacksonville having plenty of fourth-quarter leads where they won't have to throw the ball as often as they did last season. We expect the Jaguars to have 575 pass attempts in 2023.
From 2020 to 2021, Ridley averaged a 26.1% target share. Below is a table displaying what Ridley's stat line could look like with a 26.1%, 24.6%, 23.1%, and 21.6% target share.
| Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | Half-PPR PPG |
| 26.1% | 150 | 98 | 1,320 | 8 | 13.4 |
| 24.6% | 141 | 92 | 1,241 | 7.5 | 12.6 |
| 23.1% | 133 | 87 | 1,170 | 7 | 11.9 |
| 21.6% | 124 | 81 | 1,091 | 6.5 | 11.1 |
A 21.6% target share would represent a 4.5 percentage point decrease from his 2020-2021 average. Ridley's touchdown rate could also decrease from his career average of 7.3%. However, as mentioned above, Lawrence performed last season similarly to how Ryan played between 2019 and 2021. It's possible that Ridley's catch percentage and yards per target average could increase with Lawrence next season.
So Are You In or Out?
It seems unlikely that Ridley will come back and command a 26.1% target share. However, considering the caliber of player he was when we last saw him, it's quite reasonable to expect him to have a target share between 23.0% and 24.5%.
Using the numbers from our analysis above, Ridley would have finished as the WR14 (12.6 PPG) with a 24.6% target share and WR17 (11.9 PPG) with a 23.1% target share. This range of outcomes is very enticing, especially considering Ridley is currently being drafted as the WR20.
Ridley is expected to be the No. 1 receiver on what should be one of the better offenses in the NFL. Lawrence is also believed to be on the verge of the biggest season of his career. That combination could help Ridley become one of the best value picks in fantasy football drafts this summer. Fantasy managers should be all-in on Ridley's current price tag.
As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.
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