Buy or Sell - Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 8

May 19, 2018

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in week 8. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.

Since last week's column, Luke Weaver has allowed one run over his past 12 innings and Luis Castillo notched another victory by striking out eight in six frames against the Dodgers. Also, Alen Hanson hit the DL and Tim Anderson hasn't notched a single HR, SB, or RBI since May 9. Fantasy baseball giveth and it taketh away. Keep in mind that the recommendations in this column are all meant to be looked at through a long-term lens. Streaming players or playing in daily leagues is another art form altogether, but in season-long roto leagues you simply have to be patient sometimes to see how things work out, hard as it may be.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should constantly pursue as a dedicated fantasy baseball manager. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

I will typically include at least one player at each key position group (infield, outfield, pitcher) and will never advocate that you buy or sell a player if I wouldn't follow the same advice myself. Now, on to the bargaining table...

Underrated Players - Week 8

Francisco Lindor (SS, CLE) 98% owned

How can a player who is considered one of the best at his position and a near-unanimous second-round fantasy pick possibly be undervalued, especially when he's raking as the fifth-best overall hitter in 5x5 leagues this season? The truth is there were some fantasy managers who were skeptical of his power entering the season and, even now, some who consider him a sell-high candidate after his hot start! Lindor doesn't profile as a prolific HR hitter, but then again neither does Ozzie Albies or Scooter Gennett.

Lindor is currently enjoying a 22.2% HR/FB rate, but that doesn't mean his power will disappear. He smashed 33 homers last year and will stay on pace to surpass that, even if there is regression in the summer months. He is limiting soft contact to a 10.6% clip, while his 43.3% hard contact is in the top 30 among all batters. These numbers are both heading in the right direction, not just this year, but over his four years as a Major League player.

This isn't a dynasty outlook piece, but the idea holds true in redraft leagues - DO NOT SELL. You simply won't get comparable value, especially at a position like shortstop.

Matt Chapman (3B, OAK) 48% owned

Let's play the ever-popular "guess which player based on stat lines" game to compare third basemen!

Player A is 84% owned, 30 years old, coming off a disappointing season and plays in a lineup that just lost an All-Star second baseman for 80 games.

Player B is 66% owned, fighting to keep his starting job, and collected five hits, two home runs and 10 of his RBI in a two-game span against the Marlins back in early April.

Player C is 48% owned and, you probably figured out already, is Matt Chapman. The "C" gave it away.

While it's easy to cherry-pick stats, these are numbers from the 2018 season to this point that show how close in value these players are. Now, ask yourself this: of the three, who has the most upside? Matt Chapman, Kyle Seager, or Maikel Franco? Chapman started slow and has a minuscule track record to fall back on, but he could easily outproduce both of his counterparts at a much cheaper price. It's time to buy into him before the power surge hits, especially if you're still clinging onto Seager or Franco as bounce-back candidates.

Michael Brantley (OF, CLE) 77% owned

I know, we're just waiting for him to suffer another setback and land on the disabled list any day now. It's certainly possible, but what harm is there in owning him until then? You have to think if he's capable of hitting .338 and has lasted 32 games without incident, he should be above the 90% ownership threshold. He's a career .294 hitter who can deliver 20+ HR and 85+ RBI across a full season. He rarely swings and misses (4.6% SwStr%) and is making contact 97.2% of the time when swinging at pitches inside the strike zone. As the cleanup hitter, Brantley figured to have numerous RBI opportunities, but since moving to the two hole a week ago, he's responded with even better figures: three HR, 10 RBI, and nine runs scored in the last six games. The speed is probably gone, but Brantley is a high-end OF2 whose value is suffering at the hands of recency bias. Swing a deal for him if possible, but pray he stays healthy just in case.

Dan Winkler (RP, ATL) 23% owned

It's been widely assumed since before the 2018 season began that Arodys Vizcaino wouldn't hold onto the closer job past the All-Star break. It has also been assumed that flamethrower A.J. Minter would be the one to take up the mantle. Former Rule 5 pick Dan Winkler has thrown a wrinkle in that plan by delivering excellent ratios this year, to the point that manager Brian Snitker mentioned him as a candidate to close games soon. While the closer job isn't his and may never be, he's a cheap speculative add who is striking out 13 batters per nine innings and has only allowed two runners to score in 20 appearances. There's definite caution to be had here, as his 18 1/3 innings pitched in 2018 are an exact match to his previous MLB career total. One bad inning could wreck that sub-1.00 ERA easily. Still, you're better off holding onto Winkler than trying to guess who might save games in Toronto. Vizcaino owners should have handcuffed him already with Minter and/or Winkler a long time ago.

Overrated Players - Week 8

Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA) 82% owned

A .342 average across 155 at-bats is nothing to sneeze at, but Simmons is just about due to regress. He's a better hitter than he's gotten credit for, but just not this good. Simmons started his career hitting in the .240s over his first two full seasons and his prowess as a defender labeled him as a light-weight in the batter's box. His stay in the minors was short, but he was an even .300 over 954 at-bats and finished at .282 and .278 the last two years in L.A. He could definitely finish above the .300 threshold, but that still means he'll perform worse over the remainder of the season. His three HR looked great at the end of April, but he's gone yardless since May began. Simmons can still be a strong source of runs and average, but he isn't a 20/20 guy. If you were lucky enough to pick him up early in the season, try to sell off his stat line now while it still looks impressive.

Byron Buxton (OF, MIN) 77% owned

Low-hanging fruit here, but there's more to it than simply saying that Buxton has been a massive bust so far this year. He finally came off the disabled list May 9, but has done practically nothing since then. Buxton is 2-for-19 with no homers or steals in the past week, lowering his season slash line to a putrid .167/.206/.217. In fact, he is yet to go deep at all this season. He may not be 100% recovered from his fractured toe, so the speed may be absent for a while longer too. He just isn't worth the aggravation right now, but that doesn't mean his season is lost. Sell or avoid now, if possible, but consider buying again shortly before the All-Star break. In the second half, Buxton hits 55 points higher and has 22 of his 28 career home runs. If he starts elevating the ball closer to 40%, the extra base hits could eventually come.

Tyler Clippard (RP, TOR) 56% owned

New closer alert! Clippard picked up a save on May 9, shortly after Roberto Osuna was placed on administrative leave. He now has one save. This alone gets many fantasy owners excited enough to spend obscene amounts of FAAB, but there are many words of caution to heed. First, this could still be a committee situation. Seung Hwan Oh and John Axford have closing experience, so it's not as if Clippard is their only option. Clippard has only been a full-time closer in two of his 11 seasons. For his career, he's collected 62 saves and 47 blown saves on his resume. He's only posted an xFIP under 4.00 once in the last five years and stands at 4.51 right now. This includes an extraordinarily low .180 BABIP and good-as-you-can-get 100% strand rate. Clippard is not an ideal closer and probably won't earn more than a handful before returning to a setup role, even if Osuna is suspended for a lengthy term. As I recommend often, wait closer to the trade deadline to find your in-season closer.

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