X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Hitters for Fantasy Baseball - MLB Batters Rising for Week 19

Brett Baty - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers, Wavier Wire Pickups

Jon Anderson looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers and potential sleepers for the rest of the fantasy baseball season, written in week 19 of the season. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.

Welcome back to another edition of my "Breakout Hitters To Watch" series. What we're doing here is taking a good, close look at the hitting data each week to see which hitters are standing out the most.

At times this year, I have gone away from the "breakout" term to just highlight hitters that have been seeing boosts in their production in recent weeks. We have highlighted some established stud hitters, and that can certainly be strange to see in a "breakout hitters" piece. So I'll try to stick to the true "breakout" candidates this week as we find some interesting hitters to buy in on for the stretch run.

Before we get to the names this week, I've included a brief intro and also a recap of all the names we've talked about throughout the year in this weekly piece.

Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 50% off using code SUMMER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!

 

Fantasy Baseball Breakouts Recap

Here are all of the names I've recommended so far.

Week # Breakout Picks
Week 1 Julio Rodriguez, Steven Kwan, Kevin Smith, Bryson Stott
Week 2 Steven Kwan, Gavin Lux, Andrew Vaughn, Jesus Sanchez, Austin Nola
Week 3 Seiya Suzuki, Jeremy Pena, Alex Verdugo, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Rowdy Tellez
Week 4 Alec Bohm, Santiago Espinal, Taylor Ward, Cristian Pache
Week 5 Rowdy Tellez, Ha-Seong Kim, Max Kepler, Christian Walker, Pavin Smith
Week 6 Manuel Margot, Brandon Drury, Josh Naylor, Daulton Varsho, Gleyber Torres
Week 7 Brendan Rodgers, Yonathan Daza, Brandon Nimmo, Tommy Edman, Ryan Jeffers
Week 8 MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Patrick Wisdom, Julio Rodriguez, Mike Yastrzemski
Week 9 Alejandro Kirk, Nolan Gorman, Christopher Morel, Joc Pederson, Garrett Cooper, Emmanuel Rivera
Week 10 Andres Gimenez, Jazz Chisholm, Santiago Espinal, Harold Castro, Brendan Donovan, Ramon Urias
Week 11 Matt Chapman, Luis Garcia, Christian Bethancourt, Oscar Gonzalez, Luis Arraez
Week 12 Juan Yepez, Andrew Vaughn, Bobby Witt Jr., Michael Harris II, Gavin Lux
Week 13 Alex Kirilloff, Adley Rutschman, Isaac Paredes, Josh H. Smith, Matt Vierling, Victor Caratini
Week 14 Ryan Mountcastle, Cavan Biggio, Nick Gordon, Daniel Vogelbach, Rob Refsnyder,
Week 15 Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bryant, Yermin Mercedes, Yadiel Hernandez
Week 17 Josh Rojas, Carlos Santana, DJ LeMaheiu, Ezequiel Duran
Week 18 Jose Miranda, Nelson Velasquez, Matt Carpenter, Anthony Santander, Lars Nootbaar, Carson Kelly
Week 19 Darick Hall, Tyler Naquin, Seth Brown, Nick Gordon, Elehuris Montero

 

Breakout Picks for the Week 19

Joey Meneses, Washington Nationals

We have seen a rush of minor league call-ups in recent weeks, and none have been more effective than Meneses. After spending a good portion of his twenties in the Japanese League, Meneses came back state-side to join the Nationals organization. He hit .286/.341/.489 in AAA to earn him the call-up to a hurting Nats offense. Since getting the call, Meneses has hit .356/.396/.689 with five homers in just 48 plate appearances at the highest level.

So we have a 30-year-old guy who is putting up the best numbers of his career against the toughest pitchers – it's not something that's likely to continue to anywhere near this degree, but that doesn't mean he needs to be written off entirely.

The most impressive thing Meneses has done this year is put up a great stat duo of an 82.4% contact% and a 13.5% barrel rate. It's really not easy to do these two things at the same time, although it would be a whole lot more convincing if over 150 plate appearances instead of 50.

 

You see his impressive standing on the Contact% vs. Brl% scatter plot since the call-up. He's hit the ball very hard (45.9% Hard%) and has earned himself a .406 xwOBA.

I want to stress again that it's really unlikely that his production continues anywhere near this level. We just don't see guys come up to the majors and beat their minor league numbers, which is what Meneses has done in every regard – so you're going to see some come-down here, but he is looking like a guy that can put together power and contact ability at the same time – which not every hitter can say for themselves.

 

Brett Baty, New York Mets

I'm writing this before Baty even sees a pitch in the major leagues, but it's good to get ahead of some of these guys. All Baty has done this year is lead the entire Mets organization in OPS.

 

Mets System OPS Leaders, 400+ PA

Player PA AVG OBP SLG OPS
Brett Baty 415 .311 .407 .524 .931
Pete Alonso 490 .278 .357 .534 .891
Francisco Alvarez 411 .249 .355 .507 .862
Francisco Lindor 503 .270 .348 .451 .799
Alex Ramirez 448 .278 .348 .443 .791

It's hugely important to note that most of that sample (389 plate appearances of it) came from AA ball, which is a far cry from the major leagues, but Baty couldn't have done much more than he's done this year. It will be interesting to see how his playing time shakes out in this loaded Mets offense, but he's worth a grab right now if he's sitting there for the taking.

 

Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers

Another guy that hit his way into the major leagues, Carpenter went for a 1.025 OPS in 400 plate appearances between AA and AAA. He pounded 30 homers in 400 PA's there, and that earned him a call-up to the Majors.

 

2022 Minor League Home Run Leaders

Player Affiliate PA HR
Moises Gomez STL 396 32
Kerry Carpenter DET 400 30
Alexander Canario CHC 424 29
Tristan Gray PIT 359 28
Stone Garrett MIA 426 28
Nicholas Northcut BOS 375 28
Jhonkensy Noel CLE 396 28

 

Carpenter has wasted no time adding to his season total, homering twice in his first 21 Major League PAs. Those homers were against Zach Plesac and Eli Morgan, so not exactly next-level studs, but encouraging to see the power transfer this early on.

The reason for hesitancy is the 38% strikeout rate we've seen from him, but he's added a 14% BB% to that and has kept the chase rate to a league-average 29%, so there's some hope that he can improve on that (his K% in the minors was 23%).

 

Emmanuel Rivera, Arizona Diamondbacks

We talked about Rivera way back in week nine as he was putting up some pretty impressive Brl% and K% numbers with the Royals. Now he has been traded to the Diamondbacks, and that has been a boon for his fantasy value.

In 55 plate appearances since the All-Star Break, Rivera is hitting .300/.364/.600 with four homers, a 14.3% Brl%, and a 76% contact%. The strikeout rate is up to 27% in that time, but it may just be a consequence of the things giving him a power boost. With the Diamondbacks, Rivera has been hitting in the top three of the order quite often and has slashed .324/.410/.765 with four homers in just 39 plate appearances.

If we take a step back and look at the full season sample, Rivera has a .346/.300/.448 line with a 22% K%, a 10.2% Brl%, and a 76.7% contact rate. The .324 xwOBA shows more of an average hitter than a good one, but you can see the really strong combination of barrels and strikeouts there.

A change of scenery and a push upwards in the batting order may prove to be a very good thing for Rivera, who clearly has some talent at the age of 26.

 

Josh Jung, Texas Rangers

We are eagerly awaiting the call-up for Jung, who was poised to make the team out of Spring Training as the team's everyday third baseman but then need surgery to repair a torn labrum. His recovery was incredibly fast and he's been playing games in the minors for a couple of weeks now.

He has not missed a beat, hitting .320/.404/.800 in 57 plate appearances with seven homers and a steal. This is a follow-up to the elite .348/.436/.652 line he put up in 156 PA's in AAA last year, so the ceiling seems quite high. The 24-year-old should be making his major league debut soon, and there's no lack of talent here. I would be ready to add him as soon as you hear he gets the call.

 

And that's it for this week's breakout picks, hope this helps. Good luck this week, RotoBallers!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Travis Etienne Jr.

Needs to Bounce Back in 2025
Wan'Dale Robinson

Wants More Downfield Opportunities this Season
Quinshon Judkins

Arrested on Saturday for Battery and Domestic Violence
Terry McLaurin

Could be a Holdout at Training Camp
Roger McCreary

a Candidate for a Contract Extension?
Max Fried

Exits Start With Blister
Mike Evans

Buccaneers Could Have Difficult Time Retaining Mike Evans
Charles Cross

Could Sign Extension Before Training Camp
Xavier Restrepo

One to Watch Going into Training Camp
Calvin Ridley

Appears Re-Energized
Mark Andrews

Still a Key Piece in Ravens Offense
Ndamukong Suh

Officially Announces his Retirement
Jaylen Waddle

Motivated After Disappointing Season
Tre Harris

Still Unsigned
Hunter Dobbins

to Miss Rest of Season With Torn ACL
Nolan Arenado

Held Out of Lineup on Saturday
Alexandre Sarr

Plays Well in Summer League Loss to Phoenix
Yang Hansen

Looks Good on Friday Night
Carlos Correa

Sitting on Saturday
Austin Riley

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Nolan Arenado

Exits Friday's Contest With Sprained Finger
Jake Burger

Expects to Play on Saturday
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
SJ

Jeff Skinner Joins Sharks on One-Year Contract
Wyatt Langford

Records Four-Hit Night
Cal Raleigh

Homers Twice, Drives in Five
Cody Bellinger

Swats Three Homers in Victory
Jake Burger

Leaves With Quad Discomfort on Friday
Carlos Correa

Exits Game With Mild Ankle Sprain
Edward Cabrera

Dealing with Posterior Elbow Discomfort
Austin Riley

Leaves Game Early on Friday With Abdominal Tightness
Kon Knueppel

Struggles in Summer League Win
Rafael Devers

Dealing With Back Inflammation
Walter Clayton Jr.

Plays Well on Friday Night
Cody Williams

Scores 21 Points in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Leads the Way on Friday Night
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Returning on Friday
Sauce Gardner

Wants to be Highest-Paid Cornerback
Rhamondre Stevenson

Heading into an Important Season
Minnesota Vikings

Josh Metellus, Vikings Have Mutual Interest in Extension
Tua Tagovailoa

2025 Could be Tua Tagovailoa's Last Season in Miami
Rashawn Slater

has "Full Confidence" a Deal Will Get Done
Byron Buxton

Returns on Friday
Isaiah Jackson

Signs Three-Year Extension
Jake Meyers

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Calf Strain
Brandon Lowe

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Oblique Tightness
Kodai Senga

Reinstated to Start on Friday
Alex Bregman

Officially Activated and Starting on Friday
Marvin Bagley III

Joining the Wizards
Herbert Jones

Signing Extension with Pelicans
Jacob Toppin

Returning to Hawks
Chicago Bears

Bears Extend General Manager Ryan Poles
Dalton Knecht

Avoids Serious Injury
MarShawn Lloyd

in a "Much Better Spot" Heading Into Training Camp
Javon Small

Signs Two-Way Deal
Dustin Hopkins

Browns Still Counting on Dustin Hopkins
Ryan Reaves

Traded to Sharks
Vladislav Kolyachonok

Moves to Dallas
Matt Dumba

Lands in Pittsburgh
Mackie Samoskevich

Re-Signs with Panthers on One-Year Deal
Josh Manson

Inks Two-Year Extension with Avalanche
EDM

Isaac Howard Signs Three-Year, Entry-Level Contract With Oilers
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF