RADIO
Mitch Blatt identifies NFL players at the wide receiver position that broke out for fantasy football managers in 2022 and looks at their fantasy prospects in 2023.
Fantasy managers usually do a better job evaluating receiver talent and judging potential breakouts for receivers better than they do for other positions. This year was no different. RotoBaller accurately predicted most of the receivers who would ultimately finish in the top 24 WRs.
Some receivers changed teams and had explosions in production. Some like JuJu Smith-Schuster were predicted by many drafters. A.J. Brown got an upgrade, but he outperformed even what many were predicting. Others made the most of unexpected injury luck.
Who were the top wide receiver breakouts of 2022?
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Biggest Wide Receiver Breakouts of 2022
Note: Listed ADPs are from National Fantasy Championship from Aug. 8 to Sept 8, 2022; TE ranking based on PPR scoring
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles - ADP: WR11; 2022 Rank: WR6
A.J. Brown made the leap from great wide receiver to be in the conversation for the best receiver. Brown began his career with two 1,000-yard seasons on the Titans out of the gate. He scored 20 touchdowns in his first two seasons. But Ryan Tannehill was always holding him back, and his receiving production fell to 869 yards in his third season.
What he needed was to be traded to Philadelphia and to have Jalen Hurts throw him the ball. Brown exploded for 1,496 receiving yards, 421 more than his previous career high. He was targeted 39 more times than he ever had been in a season. He also set a career-high for receptions and tied his career high for touchdowns. All of this led him to finish as the WR6, making the All-Pro team, and finishing ninth in MVP voting.
With the key pieces of the offense remaining under contract for next year, Philly should remain a top-tier offense, and Brown will remain a top receiver.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars - ADP: WR36; 2022 Rank: WR12
The Jaguars’ big offseason haul justified his $18 million-per-year contract. He eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time and set career highs in targets, receptions, first downs, and touchdowns as well.
In Arizona, he was lost in the mix. Although he did end up leading the Cardinals in receiving yards last year after DeAndre Hopkins got injured, he had to compete with many more capable receivers. In Jacksonville, he was the featured receiver. He ran 74 more routes than last year and was targeted 22 more times.
Kirk will benefit from Trevor Lawrence’s continuing development into an MVP-contending elite QB. One X factor next season is the return of Calvin Ridley from suspension. Ridley was not effective in his one season as the WR1 after Julio Jones left Atlanta, then he missed the second half of 2021 to address his mental health, and then he missed all of last season because of his suspension for gambling on the Falcons. So it is unclear how his presence will impact Kirk and the Jags—whether it will cause target competition or whether he and Kirk will both benefit as he and Jones did.
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars - ADP: WR85; 2022 Rank: 26
The Jaguars' passing game did support two top 30 receivers in 2022. With the 10th-most passing yards per game, a couple of spots ahead of Dallas and just one behind Philadelphia, the Jaguars even had a top 12 tight end.
Zay Jones was the other beneficiary. After being drafted by the Bills in the 2017 second round, he only produced 316 yards and two touchdowns in his rookie season. He was traded to the Raiders halfway through the 2019 season for a fifth-round pick. He only gained 154 yards in his first full season with the Raiders, but he signed a one-year extension and gained 546 yards the next season but still only scored one touchdown.
Then in his first season as a Jaguar, he set a new career high, gaining 171 more yards than he did in his second season, and he set career highs in targets, receptions, and first downs, too. He was second on his team in all of those categories, but he only had two fewer catches than Christian Kirk (though he averaged 3.2 fewer yards per catch).
Calvin Ridley’s return from suspension will be more likely to hurt Jones’ 2023 production than Kirk's. Jones lined up wide for 66.1% of his snaps; Ridley has lined up wide for 83.7% of the snaps in his career.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos - ADP: WR26; 2022 Rank: WR22
The addition of Russell Wilson to the Broncos did help someone. Denver’s primary deep threat benefited from Wilson’s proclivity for chucking the ball deep. The king of the moon ball launched more deep passes (20 yards or further downfield) than any quarterback except Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers.
Jeudy was his favored target, accounting for 33.3% of Wilson’s deep passes. His average depth of target was 9.7 yards, 1.4 more than last season and 2.1 more than in his rookie season. He scored five of his six touchdowns, a career-high, in the deep and intermediate game. This usage helped Jeudy come close to his first 1,000-yard receiving season and eclipse his rookie total by 116 yards, despite missing two games.
Jeudy outperformed his draft position somewhat, but I also put him here because he made strides in his career development and broke out in the second half of the season. In his first nine games, he averaged 3.3 catches, 49.9 yards per game, and 8.2 yards per target. In his last six games, he averaged 6.2 catches, 87.2 yards per game, and 11.6 yards per target.
The fact that Wilson had a terrible season overall makes Jeudy all the more enticing as an upside possibility in 2023. Wilson can only get better with Sean Payton working with him. In fact, towards the end of the season, Wilson did look like his old self in a couple of games, helping Jeudy. The 23-year-old finished the year with one 100-yard game and a 150-yard game in the final three.
Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers - ADP: WR57; 2022 Rank: WR37
Joshua Palmer had proven himself an effective flex play when starting in 2021, his rookie season. Over the last five games of that season, he scored three touchdowns and posted his best receiving numbers of the season.
Then in 2022, Palmer had more opportunity than most expected the Chargers’ No. 3 WR to have on an offense with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. That’s because Allen missed seven whole games, and Williams missed four. Palmer, in fact, led all LA wide receivers in targets (Austin Ekeler led the team) and receptions and led Allen in yards. He broke 100 yards in two games and got to 99 yards in another. He finished as WR3 in Week 11 when he caught eight passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
Palmer showed that he can be effective in the Chargers’ offense when called upon, and the Chargers’ offense will probably be even stronger with Kellen Moore replacing Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator. But you can’t bet on both of the Chargers’ top receivers getting injured again. In 2022, Palmer averaged 13 fewer yards per game when Allen was healthy.
Honorable Mentions
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys - ADP: WR6; 2022 Rank: WR5
In his first year as the sole WR1 on the Cowboys, Lamb continued his upward trajectory, making 28 more catches and gaining 257 more receiving yards than last year for three more touchdowns. But fantasy managers could see this breakout coming, so they pushed Lamb up in their ranks accordingly, and he met expectations.
Curtis Samuel, Washington Commanders - ADP: WR83; 2022 Rank: WR33
Returning from an injury-plagued 2021 season and sitting third on the depth chart on a team with poor quarterback play, not much was expected of Samuel, but he caught 64 passes for 656 yards and four touchdowns. None of those figures are his career highs, but they were much better than expected.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kansas City Chiefs - ADP: WR27; 2022 Rank: WR27
Another receiver who benefited from changing teams. Going from an aging Big Ben to a still-young Patrick Mahomes can have that effect on pass catchers. But he only scored three touchdowns and did not exceed his second-year numbers. Fantasy managers accurately valued him.
Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals - ADP: WR51; 2022 Rank: WR34
Boyd (who had the benefit of staying healthy for 17 games) scored more PPR points than Deebo Samuel, Gabe Davis, George Pickens, Courtland Sutton, Brandin Cooks, and Parris Campbell.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns - ADP: WR82; 2021 Rank: WR39
Peoples-Jones’ numbers did drop off substantially when Deshaun Watson took over as quarterback. Will the Browns look better in 2023?
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