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Keith Eyster's top NBA prop bets for 1/6/26. Expert player-prop picks, value plays, quick model edges, and line-shopping tips for today’s slate. Check odds & get the edge.
Welcome back to another edition of RotoBaller's NBA Props! We have an exciting six-game offering on the schedule tonight, with every game featuring a total above 230 points and not a single spread above eight points.
There are plenty of impactful injuries to navigate, with Donovan Mitchell being out for Cleveland the most notable absence thus far. Victor Wembanyama, Ja Morant, and Tyler Herro all have a chance to return to action this evening but are currently listed as questionable on the injury report.
In this article, I will provide my favorite NBA player props picks for Tuesday, January 6th. Prop picks can range from individual stats, such as points, assists, rebounds, three-pointers made, and defensive statistics, to combination props (Points + Rebounds + Assists = PRA). All odds and sportsbooks used are listed, but it's always a good idea to shop around, as odds change throughout the day as bets are placed. Let's get to the picks already!
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Today’s Best NBA Prop Bets & Player Props
Let’s take a look at the top player props for today’s NBA slate:
- Anthony Edwards over 29.5 Points
- Zion Williamson over 23.5 Points
- Anthony Black over 25.5 Points + Assists
- Sam Merrill over 11.5 Points
- T.J. McConnell over 9.5 Points
Anthony Edwards over 29.5 Points (-119 DraftKings), (-125 NOVIG)
Timberwolves superstar Anthony Edwards is enjoying the best season of his young career. He's averaging a career-best 29.4 points per game on 63.6% true shooting. He's made at least 40% of his three-point attempts for the first time in his professional career. He's scored 30 or more points in 17 of his 29 games this season, including in each of his last three games.
Tonight's matchup against Miami sets up well for the sixth-year guard. Miami plays at the fastest pace in the league, which will lead to more possessions and additional shot attempts for Edwards. Despite ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, Miami's up-tempo style has them ranked just 19th in points allowed this season.
Edwards is the focal point of the Minnesota offense and should thrive in this game environment. He's in a great spot to go over 29.5 points again.
Zion Williamson over 23.5 Points (-120 Bet365)
Pelicans star Zion Williamson is averaging 22.8 points per game this season, but that is heavily skewed by playing a significant stretch under a minutes restriction after his return from injury. Williamson returned from a six-game absence on December 14th. In his first five games back, the forward averaged just 23.4 minutes and 21.2 points per game. In six games since that stretch, he has averaged 28.7 minutes and 25.3 points per game.
We stick by this claim
When Zion Williamson is healthy and active, he is a top 5 talent in the world
Just hasn’t been nearly enough games
— Hoop Herald (@TheHoopHerald) January 2, 2026
Zion gets an elite matchup against the Lakers' 26th-ranked defense. Additionally, Saddiq Bey remains out for the Pelicans, while Herb Jones has a chance to return to the lineup. Jones is a significantly lower usage player than Bey, so there could be even more volume available for Williamson. Jones' return could also cut into the playing time for even higher usage players like Jordan Poole or Jeremiah Fears.
With a strong matchup and a good chance to play 30+ minutes, Williamson is in a great position to go over 23.5 points.
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How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated.
For example, if you set the odds of Jaylen Brown to go over 29.5 points at -110, then anyone can flip the bet and take the under on his points prop at +110. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
Top Value Props & Sleeper Picks
Betting on superstars is always exciting, but the best value often lies on the margins of a roster. Role players and emerging contributors can offer hidden edges, especially as the season wears on and injuries start to shake up rotations.
Let’s dive into some of the top value plays for today’s NBA slate.
Anthony Black over 25.5 Points + Assists (-114 FanDuel), (-119 NOVIG)
Anthony Black is enjoying a breakout season for the Magic, averaging a career-high 15.8 points and 3.8 assists per game. Those numbers improve considerably when Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs are not on the floor. In 524 minutes with both players off the court this season, Black has averaged 23.0 points and 4.9 assists per-36 minutes. That’s an increase of 3.9 points and 0.4 assists above his per-36-minute season averages. In his last game without Suggs and Wagner, Black erupted for 27 points and 10 assists against Indiana.
Anthony Black 27 PTS (8/16), 10 AST, 4 BLK pic.twitter.com/G2WdJgC6SN
— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) January 4, 2026
The matchup tonight is as good as it gets for Black. Washington plays at the eighth-fastest pace in the league and ranks 29th in defensive rating. They have allowed the second-most points and the third-most assists in the entire league.
With an expanded role and an elite matchup, Black should be able to easily cruise past this line of 25.5 combined points and assists tonight.
Sam Merrill over 11.5 Points (-127 DraftKings), (-127 NOVIG)
Cleveland guard Sam Merrill was back in the starting lineup last game while Jarrett Allen was out with an illness. Allen is listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup against Indiana, but even more importantly, Mitchell has been ruled out. Mitchell’s absence almost certainly means Merrill is back in the starting lineup again tonight, and he has a path to play even more than the 27 minutes he saw last game. Allen also getting ruled out would only improve the outlook for Merrill even further.
Sam Merrill : 15 points (5-7 shooting from 3), 3 rebounds & fouled out in 27 minutes pic.twitter.com/YAVaQuvu5b
— Lee Harvey (@Sayian_Warrior) January 5, 2026
The matchup against Indiana is solid, as they play at the 11th-fastest pace in the league and rank just 22nd in defensive rating. They do a great job of limiting three-pointers, which is certainly a detriment to Merrill. However, the starting role and additional usage opportunities opened up by Mitchell's absence (and potentially Allen's) far outweigh the downside.
T.J. McConnell over 9.5 Points (-130 Bet365)
Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup against Cleveland, creating a clear opportunity for T.J. McConnell. With Mathurin sidelined last game, McConnell logged nearly 21 minutes and scored 10 points. While the veteran guard is averaging just 9.8 points per game this season, no Pacers player benefits more from Mathurin being off the floor than TJM.
His 28.4% usage rate without Mathurin ranks second on the team behind only Pascal Siakam, and his 3.5% usage bump in that scenario is the highest on the team. In addition to the extra shot attempts, Mathurin’s absence should also lead McConnell to a slightly larger workload.
Tonight’s matchup is also a plus for McConnell. Cleveland plays at the seventh-fastest pace in the league, creating extra possessions and more scoring opportunities for McConnell. He should thrive in transition in this up-tempo matchup. Expect McConnell to play around 20 minutes tonight, which puts him in a great position to clear 9.5 points.
NBA Betting Tools and Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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