RotoBaller Best-Ball Rankings vs ADP: Finding Values in MFL10

June 9, 2018

Chris Mangano examines RotoBaller's early best-ball consensus rankings for 2018 to find ADP values and sleepers for MFL10 fantasy football drafts.

Best ball season is in full swing, and drafts are filling up faster and faster. With the NFL draft over, and the start of the season rapidly approaching, more people are getting the fantasy football "itch." Along with following proper roster construction, getting players at a discount is one of the strategies the most successful best players use, and we're here to help you identify some values throughout the draft.

Using out brand new RotoBaller Consensus Best Ball rankings for MFL10 leagues, we can identify players who have a chance to vastly out-perform their ADP.

OK, let's get to the values and help you win your league and some money!

Early-Round Values

Tom Brady (QB, NE) Ranking: 67, ADP: 80.4

Maybe because Brady skipped OTAs, drafters have forgotten about him, but for whatever reason Brady is a bargain in the seventh round thus far. If you've followed football at all, you know what Brady does every single year. While we don't suggest taking a quarterback early, when you can get a yearly top-five option this late you almost have to pull the trigger. When you look at the quarterbacks being drafted ahead of him: Aaron Rodgers ADP: 50.4, Russell Wilson ADP: 67.3 and Deshaun Watson ADP: 70.2, it's easy to see what a value Brady is. Quarterbacks historically rise in ADP as we get closer to opening week, so now is the time to grab your shares.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) Ranking: 21, ADP: 27.4

Howard isn't a sexy PPR running back because of his poor pass-catching ability (he ranked 54th out of 55 running backs in drop rate at 20.69%) but he's eclipsed 1,200 yards from scrimmage each of his first two seasons in the league and has 16 touchdowns. He's locked into the early down role with little to no competition and should see well over 250 touches. The Bears offense looks to be much improved in 2018, as does their defense, which only adds to the appeal. Howard was RB15 on a five-win Bears team while catching only 23 passes in 2017. If he gets more scoring opportunities, or more work in the passing game, he will smash his ADP. As it stands, he is being drafted at or close to his floor which makes him a great value.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI) Ranking: 32, ADP: 46.1

Jeffery had a solid season as a new member of the Eagles, finishing with 57 catches, 789 yards and nine touchdowns and overall WR21 in PPR. However, in the 13 games he played with Carson Wentz he had 116 targets, 56 catches, 781 yards and all nine of his touchdowns and was PPR WR17 over that stretch. With almost one full year together it's easy to think his ceiling could be much more than that in 2018. He offers great weekly upside with a solid floor, and is often available in the fourth or fifth rounds. There is a lot of wide receiver value this year, but Jeffery stands out as one of the biggest.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) Ranking: 75, ADP: 86

In 2016, with a quarterback who loves to throw to his tight ends (Sam Bradford), Rudolph had 83 catches for 840 yards and seven touchdowns and finished as PPR TE2. With one game of Bradford, and 15 of Case Keenum in 2018 he had just 57 catches for 532 yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as PPR TE8. The biggest difference between those two years? His targets dropped from 132 in 2016 to just 81 in 2017. This year his quarterback will be Kirk Cousins, who we've seen support elite fantasy tight ends before with Jordan Reed. Even Vernon Davis has been a high-end fantasy tight end in games Reed has missed. In 2016 Reed had 89 targets in 12 games which is a 120 target pace. In 2017 Reed and Davis combined for 104 targets. If Rudolph sees 100 plus targets he will most definitely jump into the top five tight ends, and on an offense that should be one of the league's best, he could be the 2018 version of Zach Ertz.

Mid-Round Values

Drew Brees (QB, NO) Ranking: 81, ADP: 96.6

For the first time in 10 years, yes TEN, Brees failed to throw for more than 30 touchdowns in 2017. In fact, during that prior stretch he had thrown for no fewer than 32 touchdowns. Fantasy drafters seem to be knocking him down too far, however, considering he now has 12 straight years with over 4,300 yards. Despite his "down" year Brees was still QB9 in standard scoring leagues and still has top-five upside. Like most quarterbacks, his price will surely rise but currently he is an incredible value.

Marlon Mack (RB, IND) Ranking: 77, ADP: 86.1

Mack mostly survived both free agency and the draft, as the Colts did not sign a running back in free agency, and waited until round four (Nyheim Hines) and round five (Jordan Wilkins) to address running back. With the departure of Frank Gore, Mack could be in line for a big workload. There is still a chance they could bring in a back like DeMarco Murray, but currently it appears that Mack is the front runner for the starting job. Getting a starting running back this late is gold in best ball leagues and while Mack's role is not 100% certain, he is well worth the risk at this point.

Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) Ranking: 87, ADP: 101

Despite missing five games in 2017, Shepard had a bit of a breakout season. Of course, the season-ending injury to Odell Beckham increased his workload, but it was nice to see him take a step forward in his second year. Let's not forget this is a receiver who had 65 catches, 683 yards and eight touchdowns his rookie year and finished as PPR WR36. Drafters are likely scared of the pass catching role of rookie running back Saquon Barkley, and the emergence of tight end Evan Engram, but currently being drafted as WR44 it's hard to see Shepard doing worse than that.

Tyler Eifert (TE, CIN) Ranking: 117, ADP: 131

Eifert is the perfect player to take at this stage in best ball. After playing just 10 games in the last two seasons, drafters are getting an injury discount on a player with immense upside. In 13 games in 2015 Eifert had 54 catches, 613 yards and 13 touchdowns and still finished as TE6. Then in eight games in 2016 he had 29 catches, 394 yards and five touchdowns. If he maintained that pace for 16 games he would have finished with 196 PPR points and been TE4. We've seen players dubbed "injury prone" bounce back before (Keenan Allen anyone?) and if Eifert does he will be one of the steals of the draft.

Late-Round Values

Case Keenum (QB, DEN) Ranking: 153, ADP: 163.3

Keenum is coming off the best season of his career, and while his new team is not quite as talented as the 2017 Vikings were, he still has plenty of weapons to throw too. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both still very good wide receivers. The Broncos should have a very solid run game led by rookie Royce Freeman with Devontae Booker getting passing game duties. Plus the team has vastly improved the offensive line. While 2017 was likely Keenum's ceiling, QB23 just seems way to low for Keenum in 2018 and our consensus rankers agree. Keenum will likely remain a bargain all the way up until Week 1.

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN) Ranking: 135, ADP: 156.6

In his four years in the league, Murry has 3,862 total yards and 28 touchdowns. While he will be behind Dalvin Cook in the running game, he certainly did enough in 2017 to earn some kind of role and is always a threat near the goal line. Plus Cook has battled injuries through college and is coming off a torn ACL. If the Vikings want to limit Cook's workload, or he suffers another injury, Murray will have a ton of upside. Currently priced at RB53 it seems almost impossible Murray won't smash that.

Michael Gallup (WR, DAL) Ranking: 155, ADP: 173.1

It's not often that rookie wide receivers have an immediate impact, but Gallup has about as good a chance as you can ask for. With the Cowboys letting Dez Bryant walk, and the sudden retirement of tight end Jason Witten, the Cowboys passing game has lost 219 targets. While Gallup certainly won't see all of those, and the team did sign Allen Hurns, Gallup fills a need on the outside and should have a role right away. This late in the draft it's hard to find players that can give you starter points, but Gallup has every possibility of doing so. And really, that's all you can ask for with a pick this late.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, JAC) Ranking: 141, ADP: 162.2

After struggling with addiction, Seferian-Jenkins came back sober and ready to play in 2017, having a bit of a breakout season with the Jets. He choose to leave the team in the off-season, however, and sign with the Jaguars, a team that desperately needed a reliable pass catching tight end. While the Jaguars are a low-volume passing attack, Jenkins should have little competition in way of tight end targets. As a TE3 on your best ball team, he has the potential to give you a handful of starter weeks, or more.

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