Does James Paxton's Spin-Rate Adjustment Matter?

Players frequently enter spring training in, "the best shape of their lives," but offseason programs rarely seem to pay significant dividends. The extended offseason may have provided some players with the opportunity to make unusually significant adjustments this year, though. One example of such an adjustment is Yankees starting pitcher James Paxton, who recently announced that […]

Hitters Ready To Break Out Late

Depending on the chosen method of understanding performance declines by age, MLB hitters generally start to decline sometime between the time they turn 28 and 30. Nevertheless, some players can have their best seasons after what is typically a hitter’s peak years. Since many of these hitters have had underwhelming careers before their breakout seasons, […]

ADP Comparison: Biggest Risers From March To May

A delayed start to the MLB season has allowed several relatively high-profile MLB players to heal from offseason and spring training injuries, but improved health isn’t the only cause for a rising ADP. Some players have benefited from adjusted roster projections, and some for unclear reasons. With that in mind, here is a list of […]

ADP Comparison: Biggest Fallers from March to May

MLB first announced that its season would be postponed on March 12. Over the past month or so, a plan to resume games has taken several forms, but nothing is set in stone yet. For now, it appears as though teams will play in a maximum of 100 games in 2020, with the minor league […]

Evan Longoria (3B, SF) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~340 CURRENT ADP: ~Undrafted ANALYSIS: Evan Longoria is not the MVP candidate that he once was, but he doesn’t have to be considering he is not being drafted in NFBC contests currently. In 2019, Longoria posted a .254/.325/.437 slash line that appears to be replicable in 2020. Longoria possesses a patient plate […]

Third Base ADP Reflections

Third base is arguably the deepest position in fantasy this year, with plenty of highly productive options outside of the first 20 third basemen being drafted. The position is so deep that if a player isn’t a lock for an OPS above .900, doesn’t have positional versatility, or doesn’t offer stolen bases, then they may […]

Three Shortstops Set To Bust In 2020

Shortstop is a fairly deep fantasy position, with fifteen shortstops going before the 150th pick on average and plenty of value to be found even later in drafts. The top-end of the shortstop group is particularly strong, with three shortstops owning top-10 ADPs. No other infield position group has had as many different players drafted […]

Electronic Strike Zone: Who Benefits and Who Doesn't

Among the more high-profile MLB rule changes expected to take effect over the next few years is the usage of an electronic strike zone. The electronic strike zone was used in the Atlantic League in 2019, and the MLB Umpires Association has cleared the way for its introduction to the major leagues at some point […]

Late-Round Draft Fliers for ERA

The MLB league average ERA shot up to 4.51 last season, the highest mark since 2006 and the seventh-highest mark since 1920. Only 20 qualified starting pitchers posted an ERA below 3.50 last year, and 40% of qualified starters posted an ERA north of 4.00. With the category being thin on elite options, ERA can […]

Sizing Up the Boston Red Sox Rotation

The Red Sox got an ugly 4.95 ERA out of their starting pitchers last season, good for the 11th-worst mark in the league. An optimist might look at the Red Sox’s above-average 4.40 FIP, attribute much of the team’s pitching struggles to bad luck, and expect a rebound in 2020. Combined with a potential rebound […]

Three AL Outfielders Set To Bust In 2020

The American League has fallen significantly behind the National League in terms of quality fantasy outfielders. Of the top-10 outfielders by ADP, only three (Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, and Austin Meadows) represent the American League. The relative lack of elite talent makes avoiding busts especially crucial in AL-only leagues, as a couple of early-round misses […]

One Adjustment Away: Potential HR Risers Based on Launch Angle

Hitting the ball in the air more frequently doesn’t always mean more home runs, but an increased launch angle certainly doesn’t hurt. Of the top-20 qualified batters by launch angle last season, only two failed to hit at least 20 home runs, and the group averaged more than 30 homers. Granted, many of those batters […]

Third Base Deep Sleepers for 2020

Third base is arguably the deepest position in fantasy baseball, making the position ripe for late-round gems and sleepers. The considerable depth at the 3B position allows fantasy owners to sit back and wait rather than drafting one in earlier rounds. Indeed, the 25 third basemen drafted within the first 200 picks by ADP are […]

Ryan O'Hearn (1B, KC) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~450 CURRENT ADP: ~589 overall ANALYSIS: O’Hearn struggled to hit last season with a meager .195 batting average, but the 26-year-old clubbed 14 home runs in 105 games. Over his 149-game Major League career, O’Hearn has proven himself to be a legitimate power threat with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, […]

Sam Chinitz's 10 Bold Predictions for 2020

Bold predictions can be the key to fantasy seasons. Predicting players who will outperform or underperform expectations by extreme amounts can win leagues. Bold predictions can also be entirely unhelpful, speculative thoughts that are just fun to consider. With that in mind, I do think that each of these predictions has a legitimate chance of […]

Four Late Round Fliers For Home Runs

Last season, 129 Major League players managed to hit at least 20 home runs. The 6,776 home runs hit across the Major Leagues broke the previous yearly record by a whopping 671 long balls -- nearly the same difference between the second-highest year and the ninth-highest year. Regardless of whether or not the home runs […]

ADP Reflections - Middle Infielders

With spring training underway and the start of the MLB season less than one month away, fantasy baseball draft preparation season is in full swing. As the MLB season draws near, player ADPs will shift as expectations change and more drafts are completed. Drafting early leaves more room for injuries to hurt fantasy teams, but […]

Josh Lindblom (SP, MIL) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Target ~300s CURRENT ADP: ~320 overall ANALYSIS: Josh Lindblom began his professional baseball career at 21-years-old in the Dodgers’ minor league system, but he was never able to gain a foothold in the major leagues. Over his career so far, Lindblom has thrown 147 major league innings to go along with 497.1 minor league […]

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers - Josh Lindblom

Josh Lindblom began his professional baseball career at 21-years-old in the Dodgers’ minor league system more than a decade ago, but the pitcher was never able to gain a foothold in the major leagues. Over his career so far, Lindblom has thrown 147 major league innings to go along with 497.1 minor league innings, owning […]

Taking Out the Trash: Pitchers Who Should Junk Their Worst Pitch

Pitch mix changes can make or break a player’s season. That obviously goes for fantasy value as well as real-life. We've already seen how throwing an effective pitch more often could make a huge improvement a la Patrick Corbin. Sometimes pitchers just need to eliminate a pitch to see their numbers improve. Consider the following: Mitch […]

2020 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers – Victor Reyes

With a 457 ADP in 2020 NFBC leagues, Detroit Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes is an afterthought in all but the deepest leagues.  Perhaps the 25-year-old shouldn't be, though, as Reyes was quietly solid in 2019, slashing .304/.336/.431 in 292 plate-appearances, with three home runs and nine stolen bases. Having made stops in Arizona and the […]