Are Rookie Receivers Trustworthy in Redraft Leagues?

April 18, 2020

Should we put faith in rookie wide receivers in re-draft leagues? Collin Hulbert looks at the numbers, so we can temper our pre-draft expectations and find the best WR values for 2020 fantasy football leagues.

When I started planning this article, it reminded me of a draft I had last year in a very deep league. It was a re-draft league and a guy drafted Emanuel Hall, a Missouri receiver with 4.39 speed, signed to the Bucs a few days prior.

Sure, it was a deep league, the Bucs' offense was high-flying, and it was his final pick, but there were plenty of better veteran options on the board. For whatever reason, I just sang, “Don’t go draftin’ Emanuel Hall. Please stick to the players and the veterans you’re used to.” It was a parody on TLC’s “Waterfalls"... it's a 90s thing.

In the moment, a 1995 hit song about cautionary tales served equally well in hammering my point across in a fantasy football draft. At the time, it seemed like a really dumb pick, but after completing the research for this article, my impromptu outburst seemed all the more appropriate.

Moving Too Fast

There’s a simple solution to this question about whether rookie receivers are trustworthy in re-draft leagues. The answers to this can be found in the historical data of a great number of websites. For this article, I used Pro Football Reference. There’s a famous quote from George Santayana (Spanish Philosopher) and paraphrased by Winston Churchill that goes, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” The same is true in fantasy football.

With all the movement towards analytics in both the NFL and fantasy football, it would be silly for us to forget how important that quote is in this context. Alas, people often don’t like to dwell on the past, especially if the past is full of failures. When there are trendy hype trains inviting people to get on, why wouldn’t they?

With all the attention surrounding this year’s deep and talented rookie receiving group, it’s important we look back on rookie receiver performances over the past few years to really put things into perspective when considering them in re-draft leagues.

Let’s take a look at who finished in the top 30 among rookies at the wide receiver position over the past four years in Half-Point PPR.

Top Rookie WRs

Four years isn’t a high sample range, but anything past that would be cloudy, given all the changes in NFL offenses. It's better to have a short, relevant data set than going back further and needlessly skewing the data. From what the last four years tell us, there are only an average of two rookies, each season, who finish within the top 30 among wide receivers in a half-point PPR format. Each of those eight players has a good reason as to why they finished as high as they did, but people really want to know what it is that separates these guys from everyone else from their respective draft classes.

Is there correlation with player type and rookie success?

The first thing I noticed about these players from 2016 to 2019 was route running and/or separation ability (as well as the fact half of them operated primarily out of the slot). If there were common traits among this big group of success stories, those three factors are the closest I got to finding a correlation. Part of me wanted it to be true, so I could feel like I unlocked some magic formula for predicting player success.

The truth is, route running, separation, and favorable matchups via the slot appear to be very important, but the landing spot, situation, and offensive schemes are what really make the difference. Let’s take a look back at how these rookies were able to flourish out of the gate, so we don’t get a false sense that there’s one special attribute that makes a receiver more valuable than the rest.

A.J. Brown was off to a decent start in 2019, but the transition from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill unlocked Brown's potential far sooner than most anticipated. Brown’s route running out of college was praised by some and questioned by many. His work in the slot plus a scheme-friendly offense meant Brown wasn’t challenged as much by defenses as evaluators prefer to see. His YAC ability was his big strength coming out of Ole Miss and we all saw it in full effect his rookie year. His strong finish in 2019 propelled him into the top 15 of fantasy receivers, breaking a two-year slump by rookie receivers.

The Titans' run-heavy offense forced defenses to commit defenders to the box and opened up the secondary for both Brown and the NFL’s 2019 leader in passer rating, Ryan Tannehill. Brown appeared to fit very well in this Titans offense.

Terry McLaurin was a strong route runner in many ways, with only a few deficiencies to be concerned about. He was highly valued in a few mocks but generally sat somewhere between the sixth and 20^th ranked receivers in the class, pre-draft. McLaurin’s blazing speed was enough to extinguish some of the early doubters’ concerns for him in the NFL, as his big Week 1 had many people asking why he was the 12^th receiver taken in the draft.

Before the season began, Bleacher Report’s Alex Kirshner cited McLaurin was a favorite in the advanced stats circles, due to his number one ranking in the class for both Marginal Efficiency and Yards Per Target (YPT). The signs were there, but this is one of those cases where a guy being at a major program, surrounded by a strong supporting cast, may have been detrimental to his draft stock. In 2019, McLaurin was on pace to finish as a top-10 receiver before a quarterback carousel and a lingering hamstring kept him from finishing the season where he probably should have. Regardless, his ability to take the top off defenses proved to be a perfect fit for an offense void of weapons.

Deebo Samuel served the 49ers as more of an offensive weapon than a great receiver. Samuel’s 159 yards on 14 rushing attempts (three touchdowns) added a lot of value for him, especially considering the lack of targets wide receivers got in the 49ers offense. He was able to have a strong output, despite averaging just 5.4 targets per game. It was Kyle Shanahan’s offense that allowed him to get favorable touches (heavy play action and second-highest rushing rate in the league). Shanahan’s offense was able to maximize Samuel's potential, while limiting his opportunity to be exposed in certain routes as a traditional receiver. Credit to Deebo for making the most of a situation, but hats off to Shanahan for the calculated usage.

Calvin Ridley was highly regarded for his route running in college. His separation was highly praised as well. Though Ridley’s separation prowess didn’t immediately carry over into the NFL, he was good enough to get significant playing time and establish himself as a solid, productive slot receiver. His fantasy value came mainly from his 10 touchdowns, as he was able to capitalize on all the attention paid to Julio Jones around the red zone. It’s fair to say Ridley profited from being an ancillary offensive threat in a pass-heavy offense. Atlanta was third in the NFL in passing rate (65.25%) in 2018, so Ridley’s targets (92) were both a reflection of the offensive scheming and Matt Ryan’s trust in his talented rookie.

Cooper Kupp was a third-round pick for the Rams in what turned out to be a surprisingly strong offensive season for the Rams as a whole. Not many expected the 9-7 Rams to make a jump the following year, but with the evolving offense under Sean McVay, Cooper Kupp proved to be a valuable asset. He was already as polished of a route runner in college as many NFL receivers. What unlocked Kupp was Sean McVay’s new offensive schemes and Kupp’s subsequent performance from the slot. Per Football Outsiders, the 2017 Rams ran 11 personnel (3 WR sets) on 81.4 %, the highest in the league, by far. Their success differential in 11 personnel groupings versus non-11 personnel was a whopping 46.7%, which was also first in the league. The next best was just 32.2% (Chargers). His targets (94) were 26^th among wide receivers. His yards per reception and touchdowns were both 28^th among wide receivers as well. Kupp was dropped in an absolutely perfect situation to maximize his skill set.

Juju Smith-Schuster was a second-round pick out of USC and the youngest receiver in the draft. His draft profile on PFF suggested he was good at separation on certain routes, great physically at getting contested balls, and had a great feel in space. His ADP was all over the place in fantasy, but he was generally taken in the late rounds on average.

Going into the 2017 fantasy season, Kupp was on people’s radars but there wasn’t a lot of confidence in that offense going into the season (there was some optimism, but not confidence). Few expected the Rams to make the leap they did. For Juju, the perception in the league was that Antonio Brown, the consensus number one pick in fantasy, and Martavis Bryant would undoubtedly be ahead of Juju on the depth chart. With LeVeon Bell still warranting a heavy workload, there were few who believed Juju would be able to get much of the workload in Pittsburgh. When JuJu emerged as a viable starter, Big Ben took advantage of JuJu’s many favorable mismatches. Contributing to JuJu’s success was the fact the Steelers also had the NFL’s second-highest passing rate (67.39%) in 2017.

Michael Thomas had truly a remarkable rookie season. Coming out of camp, Thomas was thought by most to be the number four receiver in the depth chart. Expectations weren’t high out of the gate. He was praised for his improved route running and lauded for his ability to reel in balls in tight coverage. It played out perfectly for Thomas with Drew Brees’ insane accuracy and propensity to put balls over tight coverage. With the Saints' high volume passing offense (fifth in the NFL in 2016), Thomas had a decent shot at getting opportunities within the offense at some point in the season. As it turns out, it happened sooner rather than later, thanks to subpar play from the rest of the receiving corps, as Thomas finished the season number seven among fantasy receivers. For the season, he was number nine in receptions (92) and number three in wide receiver catch rate (76%).

Tyreek Hill was especially raw, ranking as the 53^rd-best wide receiver prospect in the draft. Despite his lack of positional polish, his quickness, speed, and ability with the ball in open field was what allowed Hill to be an immediate impact weapon in Andy Reid’s dynamic offense. Hill was a big question mark coming out of college (more due to character concerns) but he ranked fourth in the NFL as a rookie in separation and number one in cushion (eight yds).

Though his volume was relatively low, Hill wasn’t especially potent his rookie year as a receiver. His value, like Samuel, came from the added rushing he provided (267 yds, three TD). Neither Hill nor Thomas were valued in fantasy drafts, as Hill was a troubled fifth-rounder going widely undrafted in fantasy, while Thomas floated around the late rounds to undrafted range in fantasy.

One surprising find in all this was where most of these guys were going in fantasy drafts. Most fantasy analysts were able to aptly sift through the aftermath of the NFL draft and put out decent projections for a few of these guys, but for the most part, a lot of analysts were further off than you would expect. A major contributing factor to this is pre-draft rankings. Situational factors lead a lot of analysts down the right path in predictions, but some just couldn’t move much off the pre-draft grades for these players following the combine.

Rookie WR Pre-Draft Grade Rankings

Player evaluation is hard. Do you want to know just how hard it is? As painful as it may be to accept, the Patriots may be the best-run organization in the NFL. Here’s a fun fact: The Patriots have failed to draft a fantasy-relevant receiver over the past nine years. They have drafted nine receivers over the past nine years and none have been worth anything for fantasy over the course of their collective careers. That should tell you all you need to know about how difficult the draft can be.

While the N’Keal Harry pick hasn’t been scrutinized as heavily as we might have expected (and he’s still young), it was odd they took Harry when Harry was considered by many to be the third to sixth-best receiver in the class.

In fairness to the Patriots, going off script for pre-draft rankings shouldn’t be surprising after you see where our eight outstanding rookies were graded in their respective years, pre-draft:

Conclusion

It doesn’t appear to matter where these guys are being graded or viewed by the scouts. The situation and offensive schemes appear to have the biggest impact on whether a guy will have a big rookie season or not. Each year, we follow podcasts and hop on the hype trains we feel are destined for greatness. The reality is, very few rookie receivers will have an impact in re-draft leagues every year. Maybe it’s the appeal of the shiny new toy or the optimism that comes with seeing a guy go to a great team with a powerful offense.

It’s imperative you temper your expectations for rookie receivers in re-drafts, don’t let pre-draft rankings be the foundation for your opinion of a player, and remember my own cautionary tale from 2019: Don’t go draftin’ Emanuel Hall.

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