X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Three Potential AL Outfielder Busts for 2017 Fantasy Baseball

As much as we all love to find that diamond in the rough who exceeds expectations in the late rounds of our fantasy drafts, we loathe drafting a guy, expecting great things from him and being let down. It’s inevitable that it will happen to some fantasy owners. It’s almost impossible to completely avoid it, but we can certainly try by attempting to identify some potential fantasy busts for 2017.

This year’s crop of American League outfielders feature a lot of players with high expectations, which unfortunately means that some of them will disappoint. It happened last year with guys like Jose Bautista and Alex Gordon, and is sure to happen again with some outfielders that are drafted with high fantasy expectations.

My list of three players I wouldn’t depend on this year includes one youngster who seems ready to put it all together and a pair of veterans whose best days are behind them.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

AL Outfield Bust Candidates

Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

It seems unfair to predict a guy to bust when he has fewer than 500 major league plate appearances under his belt and has yet to break out at the major league level. But we must consider draft position and expectations when evaluating a player’s bust potential. 23-year-old Buxton fits the mold here despite his limited major league results to date.

He heads into 2017 with the Twins’ starting center field job in hand after slashing .225/.284/.430 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 92 games in 2016. He was a big time prospect after being drafted second overall in 2012, while expectations remain high for him to fill into the on-base and speed guy that he was in the minor leagues. However, what really jumps out from his major league performance suggesting he is not quite there yet is his 35.6 percent strikeout rate; it was the second highest in the majors last season among players with at least 300 plate appearances. Only his teammate Miguel Sano struck out more frequently. That’s the kind of thing that is going to hold a young player back.

Buxton still has tremendous upside and was averaged a .380 OBP in the minor leagues, though it wasn’t on the strength of walks. He’s a player who needs to make more contact, putting the ball in play and using his speed to get on base. He could make some of those adjustments and show improvement this year, but it probably won’t be enough to justify counting on him as an everyday fantasy outfielder, which many fantasy owners will do anyway on name recognition and talent.

 

Rajai Davis, Oakland Athletics

Power and speed are a great combination in a fantasy player, and Rajai Davis provided both of those with the Cleveland Indians last season. In 495 plate appearances, he hit a career-high 12 homers and swiped a league-leading 43 bases. Of course, Davis has been around for a while – this most recent year was his age-35 season, and now he’s headed to the league’s premiere pitchers' park, having signed a one-year deal with the Oakland A’s over the offseason.

The move from the more hitter-friendly Progressive Field to the O.co Coliseum for 81 home games will put a damper on the power he flashed in 2016. He’s not going to get drafted for his power anyway, despite the theatrics he provided in Game 7 of the World Series. He is one of the top speedsters in the league, having swiped 30+ bags seven out of the last eight seasons. Playing time and getting on base are important for his stolen base opportunities. The first one shouldn’t be a problem, as the rebuilding A’s signed him to be their everyday center field and there’s no obvious up-and-coming prospect pushing for his roster spot yet. However, getting on base at an adequate rate may be a little more challenging.

Davis has never been a big walks guy – his walk rate of 6.7 percent in 2016 was pretty close to his career average of 5.7. He’s going to have to hit his way on base, and he saw his strikeout rate go up and his contact rate go down last season. That doesn’t bode well for him getting on base more in 2017, which will seemingly limit his stealing opportunities and attempts. Fantasy owners should expect a drop in both homers and stolen bases for 2017, making him more of a fringe roster guy than a fantasy player to count on for the long haul.

 

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees

Another veteran switching teams for the 2017 season is Matt Holliday. On the surface it would appear that he’s moving to a better situation for this stage in his career. After spending parts of eight seasons in St. Louis, he signed a one-year free agent deal with the New York Yankees, and is expected to be the team’s everyday designated hitter. For a guy going into his age-37 season, a full-time DH gig seems like a best case scenario, as it would presumably keep him fresh and in the lineup more often.

Holliday has hit 20+ home runs in 10 of his last 11 seasons, so there is consistency that fantasy owners have come to depend on from him. But he is getting up there in years, and his last two seasons were injury-shortened. He also posted career lows in average (.246) and OBP (.322) in 2016, and as a right-handed hitter, he’s not going to get a big boost from Yankee Stadium. It’s a fine home run park from both sides of the plate, but park factors suggest it’s tough on right handed hitters when they don’t hit the ball out of the park. Holliday’s average was already at a career low and his wRC+ at 109 was his lowest since his rookie year.

There’s a perception among many that Holliday is a sleeper because he’s moving to the A.L. East and has a chance to DH, but I see too many things heading downhill to be optimistic about him being anything other than a bust in 2017, particularly when it comes to health. Take your chances elsewhere.

 

More Overvalued Draft Values




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Najee Harris

to be Ready Week 1?
De'Von Achane

Making Good Progress
Jaylen Wright

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Jackson Merrill

Heads to 10-Day Injured List
Jordan Love

Says He'll Play in Week 1
Brice Turang

Absent on Saturday, "Touch-and-Go" With Wrist Injury
Chase Elliott

Despite Being Winless at Daytona, Chase Elliott is Probably the Best DFS Option
Ryan Blaney

Will Likely Lead a Lot at Daytona
Kyle Larson

a Poor DFS Option at Daytona
Christopher Bell

Consistent Enough to Consider for DFS
Chris Buescher

Now Must Win His Way Into Playoffs
Ryan Preece

Being One of the Slowest-Starting Fords Makes Ryan Preece a Strong DFS Option
Ross Chastain

Leads a Lot on Drafting Tracks
Daniel Suarez

Now in Desperation Mode With his Career on the Line
Chase Briscoe

Tendency to Finish Better Than He Runs May Reap Dividends at Daytona
Lamar Jackson

Should Practice on Monday
Carson Hocevar

Hard to Forecast Since He's Rarely Given 100 Percent at Daytona
Michael McDowell

has a Solid Drafting Record
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Arguably Starting Too Well for Place-Differential Points
Austin Dillon

Will Likely Be Too Conservative for DFS Consideration
Noah Gragson

Has Place-Differential Potential as One of the Lowest-Starting Fords
Todd Gilliland

Poor Starting Position and Ford's Drafting Speed Make Todd Gilliland a Viable Option
Zane Smith

Probably Starting Too Well for DFS Play
Justin Haley

has Strong Pass-Differential Potential
Cole Custer

Daytona 500 Speed Makes Him a Solid Play
Austin Hill

Qualifies Poorly Enough for DFS Consideration
Matt Chapman

Activated and Starting on Saturday
Moses Moody

Warriors Not Interested in Trading Moses Moody
Kevin Durant

Rockets Expected to Agree on New Contract
Trey Murphy III

Warriors, Spurs Interested in Trey Murphy III
Zack Wheeler

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Kyle Busch

Facing a Must-Win Situation at Daytona
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Could Be a Risky Pick at Daytona
Yoán Moncada

Yoan Moncada Hits a Pair of Home Runs on Friday
Willy Adames

Belts Two Solo Home Runs on Friday
CAR

Luke Kunin Joins Panthers on One-Year Deal
Auston Matthews

Says His Health is "Good" Before Start of Season
Roope Hintz

"Feeling Good" Ahead of New Season
Matthew Tkachuk

Recovering From Surgery
Marco Rossi

Wild Re-Sign Marco Rossi to Three-Year Deal
Bubba Chandler

Records Four-Inning Save in Debut
Walker Buehler

Officially Moving to Bullpen
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia to be Activated on Saturday
Tanner Scott

Activated on Friday
NBA

Malik Beasley Now Drawing Interest from Teams
Jacob Wilson

Reintated and Starting on Friday
Marcus Semien

Could be Out All Weekend, IL Stint Possible
Evan Carter

Could Miss Rest of Season With Fractured Wrist
Brian Robinson Jr.

Traded to 49ers
Samuel Basallo

Inks an Eight-Year Extension With the Orioles
Zhang Mingyang

Set For UFC Shanghai Main Event
Johnny Walker

In Dire Need Of Victory
Brian Ortega

An Underdog At UFC Shanghai
Aljamain Sterling

Set For UFC Shanghai Co-Main Event
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Sergei Pavlovich

A Favorite At UFC Shanghai
Kevin Borjas

Set for UFC Shanghai Main-Card Bout
Sumudaerji

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kiefer Crosbie

Set To Open Up UFC Shanghai Main Card
Taiyilake Nueraji

Set For His UFC Debut
Jesús Sánchez

Jesus Sanchez Tallies Five Hits
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Dealing With Low-Grade Hamstring Strain
Marcus Semien

Leaves Thursday With Foot Contusion
Connor Ingram

Clears Player Assistance Program
Frank Nazar

Inks Seven-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Adley Rutschman

Going on Injured List With Strained Oblique
COL

Victor Olofsson Signs One-Year Deal With Avalanche
Austin Riley

Done for the Season After Having Core Surgery
Wilyer Abreu

Goes on Injured List With Calf Injury
Tee Higgins

has Injury Scare on Thursday
Jhostynxon Garcia

Headed to the Big Leagues
Dallas Cowboys

Micah Parsons Expected to Play in Week 1
Chris Godwin

Expected to be Activated from the PUP List
Dru Smith

Aims to Be Healthy for Training Camp
Jayson Tatum

Provides Injury Update
RJ Barrett

Considered a Trade Candidate
Golden State Warriors

Warriors "Remain Very Confident" About Signing Al Horford
Jahmir Young

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Devaughn Vele

Traded to Saints
Demarcus Robinson

Issued Three-Game Suspension
Lamar Jackson

Dealing With Minor Foot Injury
Lamar Jackson

Suffers Apparent Hand Injury
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Tour Championship
Corey Conners

Looking to Reverse Struggles at East Lake
Joe Mixon

Could Begin Season on PUP List
Cameron Young

Stays Hot Ahead of Tour Championship
Harris English

Aims for Complete Game at East Lake
Sepp Straka

Back in Action at East Lake
Ben Griffin

a Strong Value Play at East Lake
Rory McIlroy

Chasing Another Win at East Lake
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for 30th at BMW Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Seventh at BMW Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Keegan Bradley

Finishes Tied for 17th at BMW Championship
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at BMW Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 23rd at BMW Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Wins BMW Championship
Brian Robinson Jr.

Not Expected to Play for Commanders This Year
Rashee Rice

Could be Facing 4-6 Game Suspension?
Harry Hall

Hot at the Right Time for Tour Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound at Tour Championship
Jacob Bridgeman

has One Weakness Heading to Atlanta
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Not Expecting to Be Moved Before the Season
Nick Taylor

a Long Shot to Win Tour Championship
Josh Giddey

Bulls Not Interested in Sign-and-Trade Deal Involving Josh Giddey
Brian Harman

Trying to Crack Top 20 at Tour Championship
Andrew Novak

Attempts to Bounce Back in Atlanta
Oscar Tshiebwe

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Justin Rose

Seeks Even More Success at Tour Championship
Washington Wizards

Alondes Williams Joins Wizards for Training Camp
Washington Wizards

Wizards Add Skal Labissiere for Training Camp
A.J. Brown

on Track to Play in Week 1
CBJ

Brendan Smith Joins Blue Jackets on Tryout Deal
STL

Milan Lucic Joins Blues for Tryout
DET

Red Wings Pick Up Travis Hamonic
Jalen McMillan

Could be Out Through Week 9 Bye
Indiana Pacers

Pacers Coach Rick Carlisle Agrees to a Multiyear Contract Extension on Tuesday
Washington Wizards

John Wall Retires After 11 NBA Seasons
Daniel Jones

Named as Colts Starting Quarterback
Jalen McMillan

Will Not Be Ready for Season Opener
Collin Sexton

Hornets Have High Hopes for Collin Sexton
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Start Season Without Contract Extension
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Hopes to Bounce Back in 2025-26
Stephen Curry

Ready to Go for New Season
Orlando Magic

Lester Quinones Agrees to Deal With Magic
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Khamzat Chimaev

Is The New UFC Middleweight Champion
Dricus Du Plessis

Gets Dominated At UFC 319
Aaron Pico

Suffers Knockout Loss In His UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Scores Stunning First-Round Knockout
Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP