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John Flanigan takes a look back at four fantasy baseball breakout hitters in the National League who had career years in 2021, and are strong draft targets.
There’s no better story in baseball than when guys come out of nowhere and have career years whether it be at the plate or on the mound. From the up and coming youngsters to the late bloomers we see it every year.
This past season there was a handful of talent that took their game to another level and helped carry their teams late in the season.
Here’s a look at four of those sluggers who had career years in the National League this season.
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Brandon Crawford - San Francisco Giants
One of the biggest surprises of this past season was the year the San Francisco Giants had. They ended up beating out the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West and finished up with the best record in baseball. They received huge performances from top to bottom, but one of their biggest stars both at the plate and in the field was veteran shortstop Brandon Crawford.
Crawford has always been a wizard with the glove up the middle, but this past season we also saw him put things together with the bat. He was named to his third career All-Star team and finished fourth in NL MVP voting. Crawford appeared in 138 games and posted a .373 OBP, 141 OPS+, 6.1 WAR, and .895 OPS. He struck out just 105 times and posted career bests with 30 doubles, 24 home runs, and 11 stolen bases.
His career-highs at the plate were likely a product of him barreling up the ball a whole lot more. Crawford saw a 2.1% increase in his barrel percentage which led to an increase in his exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. He also posted his highest fly ball rate (28.7%) since 2014. Additionally, Crawford was more disciplined posting a career-high walk rate (10.2%) and his lowest strikeout rate (19.1%) since his other MVP-esque season in 2016.
At 35-years old, it’s definitely fair to expect a bit of regression from the middle infielder. While Crawford might not be able to repeat his close to MVP season in 2022, he’ll remain a reliable contributor for the Giants when the season eventually begins.
Tyler O'Neill - St. Louis Cardinals
Heading into last season, O’Neill hadn’t quite been able to find much consistent success at the big league level. Over his first three campaigns, he appeared in just 171 games and struck out 153 times while hitting 21 home runs and posting a .713 OPS.
It wasn’t until this past season that he finally was able to establish himself as the power threat he is at the plate. In fact, like Crawford, O’Neill actually performed well enough to finish eighth in MVP voting.
That power he put on display so often in the minor leagues finally carried over to the show, as he cracked 34 home runs, the seventh-highest mark in the NL. He also posted the seventh-highest OPS (.912), fifth-highest slugging percentage (.560), and the fourth-highest WAR (6.3) on the year.
Additionally, he saw a drastic increase in his exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, barrel percentage, xwOBA, and xSLG. All of those marks rose from below league average to around the 90th percentile. On top of the power outbreak, he also posted the 16th fastest sprint speed in baseball and recorded 15 stolen bases. That power/speed combo made him a deadly asset in both fantasy and real life.
The only real hole in O’Neill’s game that remained was the plate discipline. O’Neill finished the year with the fourth-most strikeouts in the National League and posted a brutal 31.3% K-rate and 7.1% walk rate. Despite that, he still finished the year with a .286 average and .352 OBP.
If he’s able to cut down on the K’s this year, you have to figure those numbers will only go up. Either way, O’Neill should enjoy another big season hitting behind the likes of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in that Cardinals lineup.
Nick Castellanos - Cincinnati Reds
Over his nine-year big league career, Castellanos has always been a solid offensive contributor. Really since the 2017 season, he’s established himself as one of the better hitters in the game. He was a consistent member of the Tigers offense early in his career, but when he was traded to the Cubs in 2019 the league really took notice. Over the second half of that season, he flashed superstar potential.
He became a free agent for the first time in his career that offseason, and after signing a big deal with the Reds, he struggled in his first year with the team. Following the shortened season, he bounced back in a big way.
Castellanos returned to that star potential he showed with the Cubs, and showed he truly is one of the premier hitters in the game today. He posted career-high numbers across the board, took home first career Silver Slugger, and finished up 12th in NL MVP voting. Castellanos tied with O’Neill for seventh in the NL with 34 home runs and had 38 doubles and 100 RBI.
He also scored 95 runs and recorded a .362 OBP, 136 OPS+, 3.2 WAR, and .939 OPS. Even with the power surge, Castellanos posted the second-lowest strikeout total of his career and decreased his K-rate (20.7%).
Castellanos remains one of the top bats on the market this offseason. When the lockout is eventually lifted he will certainly be one of the more sought out free agents. Whoever he ends up with will receive an immediate boost to the middle of their lineup.
Jesse Winker - Cincinnati Reds
Sticking with the Reds, I have to mention the year Jesse Winker had at the plate. Wink has always been a solid piece for the Reds on both sides of the ball, he just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Unfortunately, that was again the case this past season. Winker ended up on the injured list in the middle of August, and then missed the majority of September due to an intercostal strain. As a result, he appeared in just 110 games during the year.
However, when he was on the field, Winker was having a really solid campaign at the plate. He was named to his first career All-Star game and posted a career-high 32 doubles, 24 home runs, 140 OPS+, and .949 OPS. Combining this injury-shortened season with last year's pandemic shortened season, Winker appeared in a total of 164 games. Put together the stats from those two years, and he produced a line of .392 OBP, .945 OPS, 39 doubles, 36 home runs, and 94 RBI.
The advanced metrics are just as pretty for the slugger. Winker’s power potential is there as we saw this season with him finishing with an average exit velocity of 90.6 MPH. He also posted strong barrel, hard hit, and sweet spot percentages. Winker could do some serious damage in the middle of that Reds lineup if he just finds a way to stay healthy over the course of a full season. Hopefully the addition of the designated hitter in the NL could help him with that in 2022.
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