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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the 49ers vs Titans showdown slate. His Week 16 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week 16 is here! This season has been going by super quickly, and I can't believe that this is the last Thursday Night game of the season. We have a rather interesting contest tonight as the 49ers (8-6) head to Nashville to take on the Titans (9-5). This is a battle that should put a dent in the AFC West divisional race regardless of the result, and it should be an exciting one. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on December 23rd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs for DraftKings, FanDuel
Ryan Tannehill ($15,000 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,118 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, 14 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: -2.9% (26th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 7.1% (21st)
Tannehill hasn't necessarily had "the magic" as we saw from him last year, which we can partly blame on the loss of Derrick Henry mid-season. However, Tannehill is still very much "fantasy-viable" if you need a guy who has a solid floor. While his ceiling isn't too high, I can expect Tennessee to throw the ball quite a bit tonight, and getting A.J. Brown back in the lineup should provide the boost that Tannehill needs to have a solid game.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel
Jeff Wilson Jr. ($7,800 DK, $11,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 65 attempts, 249 yards, one touchdown, five targets, four receptions, 19 yards.
- 2021 Data: 31.71% attempt rate, 30.43% red-zone attempt rate, 33.33% rate within the 5yd line, 3.68% target rate, 9.09% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 7.1% (4th)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -9.5% (17th)
Jeff Wilson Jr. finally broke out last week to the cheers of DFS players everywhere. If I had to guess, he'll be one of if not the most expensive captains on the slate on DraftKings. His price is too cheap and he does have a solid matchup against a middle-of-the-road rushing defense. While I do have some concerns over Deebo Samuel taking 14 carries over the last two weeks, I would expect Kyle Shanahan to stick to his game plan of running the football so Wilson getting 10-12 touches seems inevitable. This creates a solid value opportunity, especially on DK, for Wilson to be in your captain spot.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Ryan Tannehill, George Kittle
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown
DFS Flex Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel
Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,400 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,172 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 8 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 33.2% (4th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.8% (15th)
Every time I look at this year's DVOA and see the 49ers sitting at fourth it surprises me. All credit to them, but I certainly wouldn't rate them as the fourth-best passing offense in football. Regardless, Jimmy G has been throwing the pill around well of late. I don't really like going double QB on DraftKings and I prefer Tannehill to Garoppolo, but I will most likely be running Jimmy G in most of my FanDuel lineups.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Ryan Tannehill
George Kittle ($11,200 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 82 targets, 63 receptions, 850 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 25.31% target rate, 17.95% red-zone target rate, five end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Jayon Brown): 11% target per route covered, 88% catch rate, 0.23 fantasy points per route.
While to some there was never a doubt regarding Kittle's quality as a tight end, Kittle has certainly silenced any and all doubters over the last three weeks. He's logged 28 catches for 425 yards and three touchdowns in that span and has a very intriguing matchup against the Titans' defense (and Jayon Brown specifically) tonight. His price is steep, but for a guy who's been consistently putting up numbers of late, I want him in my lineups. I should note that I prefer him slightly over Deebo Samuel tonight but should have plenty of them both.
Recommendation: GPP (DK), Cash/GPP (FD)
Best Correlations: Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill
Other Flex Plays: A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, D'Onta Foreman
DFS Value Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel
49ers D/ST ($3,800 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 6 interceptions, 11 fumble recoveries, 36 sacks, two defensive touchdowns.
There is a chance tonight that even with the return of A.J. Brown, the Titans' offense stalls and can't really get anything going tonight against a relatively hot SF defense. I'll most likely be using them in stacks with Jeff Wilson Jr. as well as some San Francisco onslaught stacks, but backing the Niners here is a solid way to create some space if you want both Kittle and Deebo in your lineups.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Jimmy Garopollo, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Robbie Gould ($4,400 DK, $9,000 FD)
While he hasn't been "as good as Gould" this season, he's still been pretty dang solid. He's knocked down 14 of 17 field goals and has missed just one extra point all season. He's logged at least seven fantasy points in each of the last four games, and that should continue tonight. I feel that regardless of how the game script goes, Gould should be optimal. Remember: kickers are always optimal.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Jimmy Garoppolo, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Other Value Plays: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Anthony Firkser
Overall Slate Note
This should be a fun slate with two offenses that seem rather consolidated and want their big boys to do most of the work for them. I'll have a ton of ownership among both teams' top skill-position guys, and just slightly more Tannehill than Jimmy G on both sites in tournaments. I don't have much to say as far as lineup restrictions go, other than the suggestion of not playing both Foreman and Hilliard in the same lineups. Outside of that, I'd like to thank you for reading my Thursday Night articles in this goofy but fun 2021 season. I also want to wish you a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and wish you health and happiness for the rest of 2021 and throughout 2022. I'll catch you all on Sunday!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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