RADIO
Well, Week 8 was a doozy! I got only five of the top-10 defenses correct (based on FantasyPros scoring) with the Rams and Bengals both finishing one point below the cut-off. However, that seems to be par for the course with Week 8 results. The top-three point scorers at quarterback were Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Fields, and Mike White. The Bucs lost to a Trevor Semien-led Saints offense. The Vikings let Cooper Rush throw for 325 yards in a loss. The Rams allowed Davis Mills to throw for 310 yards and two touchdowns. The Bengals, who were sitting as the number. one team in the AFC, let the aforementioned Mike White throw for 405 yards and two touchdowns in a loss. This week was bananas.
All of that is my way of saying, don't over-react to one week. There are some important pieces of information to take away: the Saints' defense might be a set-and-forget start regardless of matchup, Tennesse's defense is slowly improving as it gets healthy, and Miami might not be a must-attack with their offensive stars starting to come back from injury. However, we also don't want to make drastic decisions based on some flukey plays that can drastically change a whole game (like Jared Cook turning the wrong way on an out route which led to a New England pick-six). As we've been discussing all season, just like with all positions on our fantasy team, we need to trust the metrics and know that sometimes our "player" will just have an off-week.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly.
Editor's Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 9 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. Last season, NFL offenses gained 359 yards per game and scored 12,692 points or 24.8 points per game, which is the most in the Super Bowl era. This year, it hasn't gotten much better, with teams averaging 360.2 yards per game and 23.8 points per game.
With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 9 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (Pass Rush Win Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
Divided by Games Played
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That's why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Tier 1 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
We're going back to the well with the Buffalo Bills as the number one defense for the week. The Bills snuck into the top-10 with a solid performance against Miami and remain the number one defense in my BOD rankings. They're 1st in the league in turnover rate, 1st in yards allowed per play, 1st in pressure rate, 1st in QB hurry rate, and 1st in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. They have more than enough talent to get after Trevor Lawrence, which could force some bad throws from the rookie like we saw last week against the Seahawks. Jacksonville just allowed a top-five performance to the Seattle defense and also lost James Robinson to a heel injury. Robinson may play on Sunday, but he's likely to be banged up, and this Jaguars offense just isn't good enough to do much damage against Buffalo.
Pittsburgh has continued to climb the BOD rankings. They're 3rd in pressure rate, 10th in sacks, and 3rd in QB hurry rate. They haven't been able to get many turnovers and had some breakdowns early in the season, but that was when T.J. Watt was sidelined with a groin injury. I also don't envision their secondary being challenged much against a Chicago team that gives up the 6th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Bears' offensive line has given up the most sacks in the NFL with 30 through eight games, and I fully expect the Steelers to take advantage of that. The pressure should likely rattle Justin Fields, who did a lot of his damage with his legs last week and still looked inconsistent as a passer. Also, the Bears will have Matt Nagy back on the sidelines, which should hurt the offense.
Tier 2 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
Tier two is full of defenses that I really like who all have solid matchups against offenses that are tough to figure out. The Cowboys have been strong all season and really put on an impressive performance against a good Vikings offense. Now they get a Broncos offense that is 30th in the NFL in sacks allowed and just lost tackle Garrett Bolles to an ankle injury. The only issue is that I'm not sure the Cowboys will really take advantage of that. Dallas is bottom-third in pressure rate, sacks, and QB hurry rate, so they're not really positioned to take advantage of a weak Broncos offensive line. With Jerry Jeudy back, the Broncos are also a bit more dynamic of an offense, but I still am a fan of the Cowboys' elite turnover rate, which I think will help make them a strong play this week.
The Saints are my next favorite of the group after a really strong performance against a tough Bucs team. They're pretty average in pressure rate, but they're 6th in turnover rate, 5th in percentage of drives that end in a turnover, and 10th in yards per play. I just don't think this Falcons offense is anything to worry about without Calvin Ridley. I respect the receiver's decision to step away from the game to take care of his mental health and wish him nothing but the best; however, it does leave the Falcons attack with rookie Kyle Pitts, hybrid breakout star Cordarrelle Patterson, and not much else. The offense looked lost against the Panthers this past week, and I expect another similar performance against the Saints.
Oh, so this Rams defense gets Von Miller now? Damn. That might help to bring the Rams back to last year's elite level after performing solid but not quite as dominant this year. However, the team is still 7th in turnover rate and 1st in sacks, despite being average in pressure rate and yardage/scores allowed. They do get a small boost from the fact that Tennessee will be without Derrick Henry, and any time a team loses their best player, it obviously should make us think about attacking them more. Yet, I'm not as concerned with Tennessee as I am with Atlanta. Ryan Tannehill is still a good quarterback and A.J. Brown looks elite now that he is healthy. I do expect Julio Jones back at some point, but it just might not be this week, so I like the Rams to remain a strong option for Week 9 but not quite elite as they ramp up Von Miller's involvement in the defense.
I know most people have New England much higher, and I'm gonna catch heat for this, but I'm trusting my process. First of all, this ranking assumes Christian McCaffrey is back, as has been rumored. I know the Panthers will most likely be without Sam Darnold, but based on the way he's been playing, that might actually HURT New England's defense. Having McCaffrey back in the fold adds a truly dynamic wrinkle that the defense has to plan for. The Patriots are also 26th in pressure rate, and middle of the pack in both sacks and QB hurry rate, so they are going to need to rely on turnovers to create fantasy points. With McCaffrey back as a dump-off option, that will cut down on some unnecessary chances down the field. I think it makes the Patriots a strong option this week, but I'd rather trust the more talented units I've ranked ahead of them. However, if McCaffrey were to miss this game, the Patriots would jump up.
Carolina's defense remains a solid but perhaps unspectacular unit, and I think their ranking in my BOD ranks is heavily influenced by their strength of schedule in the early part of the season. Still, with Shaq Thompson back and Stephon Gilmore in the fold, they remain a unit we can trust in most matchups. They're 6th in sacks, 5th in pressure rate, and 4th in percentage of drives that end in a score. They're also facing a Patriots offense that is pretty much middle of the road and gives up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses. I know people are high on New England after the last two weeks, but they played a bad Jets team and then beat the Chargers on the back of a solid defensive performance. This is still an offense that has a lack of true playmakers and one that I don't see really putting up a massive point total on a solid Panthers defense.
Las Vegas ranks 8th in my BOD rankings thanks to being 7th in the league in pressure rate, 12th in turnover rate, and 10th in percentage of drives that end in a score. They've had some lapses and allowed some big plays, but overall Gus Bradley has coordinated a pretty solid unit. I'd have them ranked higher this week, but I think this is the week we see the return of both Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay. The Giants did also lose Sterling Shepard (again), and their offensive line continues to fold in big situations, but I think the return of Barkley and Golladay makes them an offense that I don't need to force myself to pick on. For the season, they allow the 12th-most fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, so they haven't been an easy matchup even when they were short-handed. That keeps the Raiders as a fine play but not a truly strong one; however, they would jump ahead of Green Bay and likely Carolina if Barkley was ruled out.
The Cardinals have been a pretty elite defense so far this season, so I choose to trust them to most in this group, despite having a harder matchup on the surface. We got a strong performance from Jimmy Garoppolo, but I still don't think he's more than an average quarterback in the NFL. Elijah Mitchell also came out of Sunday's game with another rib injury, so that's something we'll need to monitor, but this Cardinals defense has been elite at getting turnovers (5th in the NFL), preventing scores (2nd in the NFL), and getting pressure (6th in the NFL). The loss of J.J. Watt is concerning, but I'm still gonna trust the Cardinals in this one.
Listen, Mike White isn't going to throw for 400 yards again. That said, some of the younger players on the Jets are starting to improve, particularly Michael Carter, who looks like a legit running back in the NFL. They're still an offense that we want to attack, as they're giving up the 2nd most points to opposing defenses, which is why Indianapolis is so high in the rankings despite being 20th in my BOD rankings. They are a good real-life defense, but they are bottom-third in most pass-rushing metrics, including being dead last in the NFL in pressure rate and QB hurry rate. The Jets' offensive line is 25th in the NFL in sacks allowed, so that will help Indianapolis, but I try not to elevate mediocre defenses too much just because of the matchup. The Colts are firmly entrenched in the top-10, but I just can't recommend playing them over the really strong units ranked ahead of them.
Tier 3 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
Minnesota is my number three defense on the year, so you know I'm a big fan. They're 2nd in sacks, 2nd in pressure rate, 2nd in QB hurry rate, and pretty solid everywhere else. They're also facing a Baltimore team that allows the 24th most sacks in the NFL and is 15th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, so they're not a gimme matchup but they're not a matchup we really need to avoid. However, the loss of Danielle Hunter is not one we can take lightly, and we need to see how the Vikings respond. I think the pressure will certainly get to Lamar Jackson this weekend. We also just know that Jackson is gonna get his; he's too dynamic a playmaker to be shut out completely. As a result, the Vikings are a fine option this week, but they're not likely to put up a truly impactful point total. They just have a safe enough floor to make them playable pretty much every week.
I don't know what to say, at some point maybe the Chiefs offense isn't going to look like it did last year. They took on a fairly mediocre Giants defense last night and couldn't really get anything going. Patrick Mahomes made some really questionable throws and Travis Kelce didn't look like himself at all. Still, without Jaire Alexander, I just can't rank the Green Bay any higher than this. I know they did well against Kyler Murray and Arizona last week, but DeAndre Hopkins barely played, and I think we're singing a different tune if A.J. Green turns around for that final play. Not to take anything away from a Green Bay defense that is 9th in my BOD rankings for the season; however, I'm still not ready to truly attack this Chiefs offense.
Houston has been offenses that we want to attack when streaming a defense, giving up the most fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, but Miami has also been an underperforming defense. This is kind of the ultimate instance of "Don't Trust a Bad Defense in a Plus Matchup." As I mentioned above, I think Miami has the better offense with Tua Tagovailoa and DeVante Parker back; however, they also have had a worse defense in terms of pressure, turnover rate, sacks, and drives that end in turnovers. With Tyrod Taylor also coming back, I'm also not sure the Texans will be as friendly to opposing defenses. They will certainly still be a bad team, but Taylor looked good in his five quarters of action, so I'm not ready to jump up a weak Miami defense much higher than this.
Philadelphia is a team that might surprise people being ranked this high, but they're 13th in my BOD rankings thanks to being fairly solid everywhere. They're middle of the pack in all pressure metrics and percentage of drives that end in a score, but also 6th in yards per play since their defensive scheme forces offenses to take what's underneath. When that happens, you make the offense run more plays, which opens up more chances for mistakes or sacks. This Eagles ranking is also due to the Chargers actually being a middle-of-the-pack opposing offense. They allow the 16th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, which puts them in the dead middle of the league and makes them an offense we don't need to full-on avoid, unlike what we thought three to four weeks ago.
I'm also not entirely sure how good Cincinnati is on defense. At the end of the day, I think they're fine and that keeps them in the periphery of the starting conversation due to the Browns' offensive injuries; I just don't really trust them yet and think the Browns have enough playmakers with Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry to make me not so excited about the Bengals this week. However, the Bengals' offense has been good enough to make the Browns a fairly mediocre play as well. Both defenses are back-to-back in my season-long BOD rankings, so it only makes sense to keep them that way for this week.
Baltimore is a solid defense, but I just can't trust them in their matchup this week against a Vikings team that gives up the 4th-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Tier 4 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
Tier 5 Defenses - Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 9
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