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DraftKings MMA, UFC DFS lineup picks for UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs. Rodriguez on 10/09/21. MMA DFS analysis to build winning daily fantasy UFC lineups.
Second UFC Fight Night event since UFC 266, and first card since all the way back in May of this year headlined by a couple of women. Now that's what we want to watch. Bring them ladies up, Dana, cause the talent in their classes is staggering. Good for the promo, it looks like the UFC will also put a couple of women in the next FN main event, which we root for here. But let's not get ahead of ourselves and focus on what will be coming our way this weekend.
There are tasty storylines going into Saturday night. Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez headline this event, and it makes all of the sense. Dern is just one spot above Rodriguez in the WSW ranks, but Dern is also the 12th-best P4P W Fighter while Rodriguez isn't ranked in that top-15. You know someone is going to be hungry for that victory, won't Marina? Moving on to the men's side, we are in for a treat in a fight between no. 9 FW Tim Elliott and no. 11 Matheus Nicolau, with the former looking to bulk up his career record a bit, and the latter chasing an eventual shot at the belt.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 39: Dern vs. Rodriguez on 10/09/21. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Women's Strawweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Marina Rodriguez, $8000 - vs. Mackenzie Dern
These two are very similar, yet very opposite at the same time. Dern is entering the Octagon for the eighth time in her UFC tenure and boasts a 5-2 record in the promo. Rodriguez is doing it for the seventh time and is sitting at a 3-1-2 (yes, that's two Draws) record so far. Both are on the positive side of things, have won more often than not, yet their approaches to the game are absolutely contrasting.
While Marina has gone the distance in all of her six fights to date, Dern has only three-of-seven such outings. Dern is in for the kill every Saturday, folks. She's not done via KO yet, but not that we care that much when he's submitted three foes while only getting subbed once herself. The striking volume is ridiculously low, and although Dern goes after takedowns a lot, the landing rate aren't otherworldly. Rodriguez, on the other hand, relies on striking more than anything having five of six fights with 140+ SS launched, landing a fantastic 48% of them. As long as Rodriguez can keep up the volume, she should be the fantasy favorite here in terms of floor, although Dern comes with a better boom/bust profile thanks to her submission prowess. Give me Marina as she can perfectly make this bout last five rounds.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jared Gooden, $7400 - vs. Randy Brown
Vet vs. Fresh in a battle of finishers? Can't hate this fight. Now, that first question was wrong--if only a bit. Brown debuted fewer than six years ago (Jan. 2016) and Gooden has already fought three times, so it's not entirely true that those two are true veterans/freshmen. That being said, the difference in experience is substantial and the records sit at 1-2 Gooden, 7-4 Brown.
These two have combined for 14 fights, and only half of them have gone the distance and lasted the full slated 15 minutes of fighting time. Brown is 3-2 in decisions while Gooden dropped both of them. Luckily for the latter, he rebounded this past July with a first-round KO against Niklas Stolze. Brown, who has never put together three wins in a row, will be looking for his second one in 2021 after submitting Alex Oliveira back in April. None of these two poses a striking edge in terms of volume, but both have KO'd folks in their careers (Gooden one, Brown two). These are two all-or-nothing fighters, but given their track records, I'd go with Gooden knocking Brown out in what would be the third such loss of that type for the latter.
DraftKings MMA Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Matheus Nicolau, $8500 - vs. Tim Elliott
It took Tim Elliott a freaking nine years to string to wins in a row, but he finally did it when he defeated Jordan Espinosa last March after winning the prior fight too over Ryan Benoit (Jul. 2020). As many takedowns as Elliott has attempted (and landed, actually) in his career, those have only once turned into a submission victory over a 13-fight run. Elliott's 41-of-78 TD record is marvelous, but he's 1-4 in fights that ended with a submission, so it's not that he's making the most of those takedowns.
Nicolau, while having fought four times in a six-year span (Nov. 15 to Mar. 2021), is currently boasting a 3-1 record with his last win coming earlier this year. He has a couple of decisions and a submission (in 2015, though) to his name, and he got KO'd in his lone 2018 loss. Elliott is definitely not going to KO Nicolau, that I can tell you. It's been four years since Elliott's last submission win too, and with Nicolau being an 8-of-17 takedown artist, on top of Elliott getting subbed twice in a seven-month span between the end of 2019 and the start of 2020, odds are that happens once more to poor Tim.
DraftKings MMA Women's Flyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sabina Mazo, $8300 - vs. Mariya Agapova
Mariya Agapova, she of the two career fights and 1-1 record, has yet to meet the UFC 15-minute buzzer. He submitted Hannah Cifers for a neat debut, then proceeded to get KO'd by Shana Dobson and she's been on the shelf since Aug. 2020. Mazo, on the other hand, presents the opposite fighter profile. Mazo is 3-2, sandwich three wins between two losses (one in her debut, the other one her last time out).
Agapova hasn't needed to throw more than 52 significant strikes toward her two opponents, as she sent Cifers home in just 2:42 minutes and then got sent home herself after just 6:38 minutes in her second bout. Mazo has attempted at least 144 in every one of her fights, averages 215 (!) SSA per fight, and she's landed 45% of those to come with a fantastic fantasy floor built on volume. When Mazo opted to chase takedowns against Shana Dobson she went 4-for-4, but she only has one other (missed) takedown attempt. In any case, Mazo surely looks like the safer/better play of these two if only because of that monster striking volume.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Phil Hawes, $9000 - vs. Deron Winn
This could be one of the best fights of the main card, and it will open the curtains of it for us. Not bad. Phil Hawes started doing it on the UFC just last October, and virtually a year later is a 3-0 fighter who has looked fantastic in his short career at the promo. He's KO'd his first rival in just 18 seconds (on UFC 254 no less) and then snatched a couple of decision wins in his next two fights, both happening in 2021 going 6-of-11 on takedowns for a 53% success at it.
Winn, although winning his debut and his last fight, sits at an even 2-2 after dropping a decision and a submission in his middle-two bouts. Winn, don't get it wrong, is a freakish takedown artist. He's racked up 36 TD attempts in just four fights combined while going 19-of-36 for a sweet 53% success rate. These two can do wonders on the mat, and their activity in trying to bring the fight down speaks of that. Given that none of the two have subbed a foe yet, and that there are very serious chances of reaching the 15-minute mark, I'd stack these two. But as I have to pick one, I'd bet on Hawes if only because he has that KO win on top of a pretty fantastic volume/success on the takedown department. Oh, and that perfect 3-0 record.
