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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 4 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Week 3 was another exciting week, but it's already time for Week 4!
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Matchups We Love:
Colts RBs
You have to be disappointed with Jonathan Taylor's Week 3 usage, where he was limited to only 10 carries for 61 yards while catching 1-of-3 targets for eight yards. Nyheim Hines ran six times for 25 yards with five receptions for 54 yards. The silver lining here was that Marlon Mack was a healthy scratch. If this continues, both running backs will be able to stay fantasy-relevant. This is a get-right spot for the Colts' running game against a Dolphins defense that has given up a combined 293 yards on 59 carries (4.97 YPC) to Damien Harris, Devin Singletary, and Peyton Barber. While the Colts will be without their best offensive lineman in Quenten Nelson, I expect JT to turn in his best game of the season in this spot, with Hines as a FLEX in full-PPR formats.
Dolphins WRs
We got some more clarity on the Dolphins wideouts last week, as Jaylen Waddle (87.95% snaps, 27.66% target share) led the way, with DeVante Parker (77.11% snaps, 14.89% target share) and Will Fuller (61.45% snaps, 12.77% target share) behind him. It's interesting to note that Parker (121) and Fuller (121) had much more air yards than Waddle (40). It appears that the two veterans will run deeper routes with Waddle acting as the underneath option. We could also see more usage for Fuller this week since last week was his first game back from suspension. These wideouts have a fantastic matchup against a Colts defense allowing 10.73 yards per target to wide receivers this year (30th). I'd put Waddle as the safest of the bunch, but Fuller has the most upside. We can consider each of them on the WR3 radar this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Wentz has finished as QB19, QB17, and QB31 so far this season. He's only averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and playing hurt with his ankle injuries. While Wentz should be in better shape for this game, it's a tough matchup against a Dolphins defense that limited Josh Allen to 5.4 yards per attempt two weeks ago. The Dolphins are starting to look like a run-funnel defense with their struggles stopping the run, so we can't recommend Wentz as a streamer in a potential run-heavy game script here.
Other Matchups:
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman currently leads the Colts in snaps (94.12%), air yards (302), and target share (26.67%). He's racked up 24 targets in his last two games, establishing himself as the clear alpha in this offense. The issue here is Pittman could have to deal with cornerback Xavien Howard (73.3 PFF Coverage Grade). We could also see the Colts try to lean on the running game in this one, as that's the weakness of this Dolphins defense. For that reason, we need to consider Pittman a low-end WR3 in this one and keep him in the lukewarm section.
Dolphins RBs
We got some good news with the Dolphins backfield last week, as Salvon Ahmed saw his snaps decrease significantly from about 18% to 6%. It's a lot easier to feel comfortable starting your running back in a two-man committee rather than a three-headed monster. Myles Gaskin saw a season-high 16 touches last week, while Malcolm Brown only had seven. Perhaps we'll start to see Gaskin get more usage going forward. You have to love the fact that he's already racked up 16 targets this season. Gaskin goes up against a Colts defense that has 4.44 YPC this season, which is tied for 21st in the league. Gaskin stays in the lukewarm section for now, but his arrow is pointing up.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Speaking of players who saw an increase in value last week, how about Gesicki? The Dolphins' tight end caught 10-of-12 targets for 86 yards with Jacoby Brissett under center. Last time Brissett was a starter, tight ends Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle combined for a 30% target share. It's clear that Brissett likes to feed his tight end, so we can consider Gesicki a potential Top-12 option going forward. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section because this profiles as more of a big game for the wideouts, but you have to like what you're seeing here right now.
Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen woke up from his season-long slumber last week, completing 32-of-43 passes for 358 yards and four touchdowns while adding another touchdown on the ground. He finished as QB1 for the week against the underachieving Washington Football Team defense. Allen gets another great spot against a Texans defense that has given up 8.01 yards per attempt (23rd). The one risk here is that the game gets out of hand quickly with the Bills as massive 17-point favorites, causing Allen to take the foot off the gas. Having said that, we have to fire up Allen as an elite QB1 in this spot.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs has gotten off to a slow start, but he still leads the Bills in air yards (409) and target share (26.45%). It's only a matter of time before he has a spike week, perhaps in this spot against a Texans defense that just allowed D.J. Moore to catch 8-of-12 targets for 126 yards. Diggs should be able to have his way with cornerbacks Terrance Mitchell (61.6 PFF Coverage Grade) and Desmond King II (66.4 PFF Coverage Grade). Diggs is an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Texans RBs
There's no reason to consider starting any of the Texans running backs against a Bills defense that has given up only 3.45 yards per carry (9th). Mark Ingram remains the lead back here, but it's hard to see him getting much volume with the Texans likely playing from behind. Ingram has only put up four targets this year, so this profiles as more of a David Johnson (six targets) game. Phillip Lindsay is just a change-of-pace back. Avoid this situation like the plague.
Other Matchups:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks continues to produce no matter who's playing at quarterback. The veteran wideout has dominated usage for the Texans, leading the team with a 57.99% air yard share and 37.65% target share. While the matchup is tough against Tre'Davious White, but the volume should be there for Cooks to turn in solid value, especially with the Texans likely airing it out while playing catch-up. Consider Cooks a volume-based WR3 in this tough spot.
Bills RBs
Zack Moss (55.7% snaps, 13 carries, three targets) saw more usage than Devin Singletary (43.04% snaps, 11 carries, two targets) in Week 3, but this remains a full-blown committee. This is a great spot for these running backs with a potential positive game script with the Bills as 17-point favorites. The Texans have given up 5.0 YPC (29th), so we could see one of these backs hit their ceiling in this spot. Consider Moss as an upside FLEX with Singletary as the slightly inferior option.
Bills WRs
Emmanuel Sanders (5 REC, 94 YDS, 2 TD) and Cole Beasley (11 REC, 98 YDS) both came alive last week against Washington. Sanders (338 air yards) and Beasley (24.79% target share) are seeing strong usage that should keep them fantasy-relevant going forward. This is a good matchup against the Texans, but if the game gets out of hand, it's hard to see each of these three wideouts putting up strong production. Consider each of them on the WR3/4 fringe in this spot.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore has quickly established himself as the alpha in this offense, leading the team in air yard share (40.79%) and target share (30.69%). We could see him get even more targets with Christian McCaffrey sidelined. While the Cowboys defense has been much improved and cornerback Trevon Diggs (87.1 PFF Coverage Grade), Moore is playing too good and this volume makes him virtually matchup-proof. This game is also a potential shootout with a 50.5-point total.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott should be able to turn in a strong performance against a pass-funnel Panthers defense. The Panthers have limited opposing running backs to only 2.19 YPC (1st). The Cowboys have shown a willingness to adapt their offensive philosophy depending on their opponent. The last time they faced such a strong run defense, it was against the Bucs in Week 1. Dak attempted 58 passes in that game. Expect a bump in volume in this spot, putting Dak on the elite QB1 radar.
Cowboys WRs
CeeDee Lamb (3 REC, 66 YDS) and Amari Cooper (3 REC, 26 YDS) each had slow weeks, but we should see them bounce back in this spot, especially considering that the Panthers run defense has been the best in the NFL so far. Carolina has allowed strong production to Corey Davis (5 REC, 97 YDS, 2 TD) and Brandin Cooks (9 REC, 112 YDS). They also lost rookie cornerback Jaycee Horn. Look for the Cowboys wideouts to bounce back here.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers WRs
While the injury to CMC could result in more targets for Robby Anderson and Terrace Marshall, it's tough to trust either of these players right now. Anderson (10.89% target share) and Marshall (13.86% target share) are simply not getting enough usage. Even in a shootout like this one, it's hard to consider starting either of these players unless you're in a deep league. Take a wait-and-see approach to check if the Panthers give more targets to their wideouts with CMC sidelined.
Cowboys RBs
Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have carried the Cowboys' offense over the last two weeks, combining for 418 total yards and four touchdowns. However, we could see the Cowboys go with a much more pass-heavy approach against this Panthers defense, especially with Jaycee Horn out with an injury. While we still need to consider Zeke as an upside RB2 and Pollard as a potential FLEX, it seems unlikely that they'll get to their ceilings in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR)
Darnold has rejuvenated his career in Carolina so far, completing over 68 percent of his passes while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and 296 yards per game. Darnold has even rushed for three touchdowns already, demonstrating his dual-threat ability that can really unlock his fantasy upside. While the Cowboys' defense has done a good job limiting Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts in the last two weeks, there is still production to be had in this potential shootout. I'll leave Darnold as a lukewarm option, but I'm totally on board with him moving forward.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
Hubbard takes over as the lead back with CMC sidelined. The rookie out-touched Royce Freeman 14-to-6 last week, so it's clear who the 1A in this backfield is. You also have to like how Hubbard was utilized in the passing game, as he was targeted five times. The Cowboys have given up 4.97 YPC (28th) so far this season, so perhaps the Panthers will try to get the running game going. Consider Hubbard on the RB2 radar in this spot.
Cowboys TEs
Dalton Schultz (7 REC, 80 YDS, 2 TD) had a breakout game on Monday night, but he's still essentially splitting time with Blake Jarwin. Schultz played 69% of the snaps in that game, while Jarwin played 56%. While the Cowboys are using more 2-TE sets with Michael Gallup sidelined with injury, it's clear that Jarwin's presence caps Schultz's upside. I don't mind using either of these tight ends as a streamer here, but don't get too excited about Schultz's big game last week.
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry is currently averaging an absurd 34 touches per game, including a career-high 4.3 targets per game. The uptick in usage in the passing game is huge for Henry's fantasy value, particularly in full-PPR formats. Henry gets another projected positive game script with the Titans as 7.5-point road favorites against the hapless Jets. The Jets are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing running backs. We can expect the Titans to absolutely feed Henry here with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown out for the week. Consider Henry the overall RB1.
Julio Jones (WR, TEN)
Julio takes over as the clear-cut top option in this passing game with A.J. Brown on the shelf with a hamstring injury. The veteran wideout should see an increase in his 18% target share going forward. Jones goes up against a Jets defense that is giving up 9.12 yards per target to wideouts (23rd). We can consider him an upside WR2 against a beatable secondary that includes cornerbacks Brandin Echolls (57.5 PFF Coverage Grade) and Bryce Hall (67.1 PFF Coverage Grade). Keep an eye on his injury status because it's unclear if he'll play this week. If he can't go, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a WR3 option as he would be the top wideout.
UPDATE: Julio Jones is OUT for this game. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is worth starting in deeper leagues.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no fantasy-relevant players with a bad matchup in this spot. Zach Wilson should not even be considered as an option with how he's playing right now, so he's barely even worth mentioning.
Other Matchups:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill has been a major disappointment so far this season, putting up QB24, QB24, and QB8 finishes so far this season. Any time you lose a wideout as good as A.J. Brown, it isn't good for your fantasy value. Having said that, Tannehill goes up against a Jets defense that 18th in pass DVOA, so he's definitely on the QB1 radar in this spot. We'll have to leave him in the lukewarm spot given how he's played this season, but this is a good opportunity to keep the good times rolling after a solid fantasy performance last week.
Jets RBs
Rookie Michael Carter is starting to take over this backfield, putting up 26 opportunities in the last two games, including six targets. Ty Johnson (20 opportunities) and Tevin Coleman (14 opportunities) have started to take a backseat to the rookie, especially Coleman (five touches last game). The Titans are allowing 4.5 YPC (T-23rd), so this is a good matchup. The Jets need to do something to get this putrid offense, so why not get Carter more involved?
Jets WRs
Corey Davis has turned in consecutive duds after a strong debut, combining for seven receptions and 49 yards in the last two games. He's currently leading the team in air yards (258) and target share (23.4%). This looks like a get-right spot against a Titans defense that is giving up the third-most fantasy points per game (PPR) to opposing wideouts. It's also a revenge game for Davis against his former team. He looks like an upside WR3 in this spot. Rookie Elijah Moore has 14 targets in his last two games, so perhaps he can get it going against a weaker defense here.
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Browns RBs
Nick Chubb (RB9) and Kareem Hunt (RB7) have proven to be fantasy-relevant running backs in all formats so far this season. Chubb is coming off a season-high 22 touches in the Browns' win over the Bears. The issue is that he's only gotten three targets this season. Hunt is coming off a huge game where he rushed 10 times for 81 yards and a touchdown and caught 6-of-7 targets for 74 yards. He's now totaled double-digit touches in back-to-back games, establishing himself as an upside FLEX each week. This is a good matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 27th in rush DVOA.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE)
Beckham returned to action to lead the Browns in air yards (149) and target share (31.03%), finishing with five receptions and 77 yards. It was an encouraging debut for the former star wideout. He's got a good matchup here against a Vikings defense allowing 10.83 yards per target (31st). We've seen D.K. Metcalf (6 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD), Rondale Moore (7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD), and Ja'Marr Chase (5 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD) go off against this defense. Beckham looks like an upside WR2 in this spot.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson came alive against the Seahawks last week, catching 9-of-11 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. The second-year star wideout has now racked up double-digit targets in consecutive games. He goes up against a Browns defense that ranks 19th in pass DVOA. Jefferson is a WR1 every week due to his big-play ability and this week is no different. He could hit his ceiling once again in this spot.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen just continues to catch touchdowns, hitting pay dirt in each of his three games this season, including two scores in Week 1. While he's definitely the second option behind Jefferson, the veteran's red-zone usage continues to keep him afloat as a WR2. Denzel Ward is a good corner, but he's posted a 57.8 PFF Coverage Grade so far this season. Rookie Greg Newsome (70.3 PFF Coverage Grade) has been more effective. Keep rolling with Thielen in this projected shootout.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this potential shootout with a 51.5-point game total.
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield has been limited to 28, 21, and 31 pass attempts this season, which has limited his upside as a fantasy quarterback. The good news here is that the Vikings' defense continues to struggle, so we could see Mayfield demonstrate some high efficiency in this spot. This defense is 10.09 yards per attempt (31st). If this ends up as a close game, Mayfield could absolutely turn in a QB1 performance in this spot. He's on the streaming radar but stays in the lukewarm section due to the Browns' run-heavy tendencies.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins is absolutely balling out right now, completing 73.9% of his passes while averaging 306 yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt. He's thrown eight touchdowns with zero interceptions. The most encouraging part about this start is the volume, as the Vikings have been run-heavy in the last two years, but Cousins is averaging 39.67 pass attempts per game so far. That's great news for this entire offense. The Browns have given up 7.44 yards per attempt this season (17th). He's only in the lukewarm section because quarterback is such a deep position.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook came close to suiting up for last week's game, but ultimately sat out and watched backup Alexander Mattison ball out with an RB7 finish in PPR formats. Cook should be able to go in this projected shootout, but keep a close eye on his injury status. The Browns rank 4th in rush DVOA, so this is a tough matchup, but Cook's volume coupled with this projected shootout outweighs the matchup. Consider Cook an elite RB1 with Mattison as a volume-based RB2 if Cook can't go here.
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN)
Conklin has emerged as a potential streamer tight end, coming off a strong showing against the Seahawks where he caught 7-of-8 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown. He's dominated usage at tight end for this team, playing on 73.97% of the snaps with 74 air yards and a 13.68% target share. We could see Conklin find the endzone once again in this projected shootout. He's absolutely in play in this spot.
Washington Football Team at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin is in a smash spot against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in pass DVOA, ranking 21st in fantasy points (PPR) allowed to opposing wideouts. Starting corner A.J. Terrell is currently still in concussion protocol, leaving Fabian Moreau (52.6 PFF Coverage Grade) and Isaiah Oliver (78.9 PFF Coverage Grade) as the starting corners. McLaurin should be able to dominate this group, especially with his massive volume (28.41% target share). Curtis Samuel is expected to make his debut. Keep an eye on him because he has some WR3 appeal going forward.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Ridley has been a disappointment so far this season, ranking as WR25 in PPR formats. He's been limited by a struggling Matt Ryan which has really catapulted this offense. Ridley's average depth of target is 8.8 right now, a significant decrease from his 14.1 total from last season. This is not the elite WR1 that we expected coming into the season. Having said that, this is a good matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA. Perhaps Ridley can get right in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this spot. The Washington defense has been one of the most disappointing in the league. There's a chance that the Falcons can finally get right on offense in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Heinicke has finished as QB12 and QB10 in his two starts this season. While he's been reckless at times (three interceptions), he's been able to move the ball and put up points, sort of similar to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke should be able to keep it rolling against a Falcons defense that is giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. We can consider Heinicke a viable streamer for this week, but he remains in the lukewarm section due to the depth at the quarterback position.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson has been a bit underwhelming this season, ranking as RB19 in PPR formats, but he flashed his massive upside with a 73-yard touchdown reception against the Bills. Gibson is one of the best weapons on this team who needs to be utilized more in the passing game. However, the team continues to give J.D. McKissic a prominent role (19.2% target share). The Falcons rank 24th in rush DVOA, but McKissic's presence keeps Gibson in the lukewarm section. Gibson looks good to go for this game.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
Thomas currently ranks 5th among tight ends with 65 routes run. He's also put up a 15.91% target share while playing on 100% of the snaps. He's currently ranked as TE7 in PPR formats. We can continue to see him approach this rank throughout the year while he's seeing this type of usage. Washington should be able to move the ball against this Falcons defense, making Thomas a mid-tier TE1 in this spot.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan has struggled mightily this season, averaging only 6.0 yards per attempt with three interceptions. He's coming off his best game of the season against the pass-funnel Bucs' defense, passing for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Perhaps this struggling Washington defense will act as a get-right spot for Ryan. However, it also would not surprise me to see this underachieving unit finally get it going against Ryan here. For that reason, we have to keep Ryan in the lukewarm section.
Falcons RBs
Mike Davis (66.5% snaps, 14.66% target share) and Cordarelle Patterson (35.92% snaps, 12.93% target share) have made an impact in the passing game. This helps keep them on the radar, especially in full-PPR formats. We could see both players rack up more check-downs against a tough Washington front-seven that is littered with first-rounders. Consider Davis a decent FLEX with Patterson a bit lower as the riskier player with less volume.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts has been disappointing so far, catching 11-of-17 targets for 139 yards. The good news is that he's playing on 76.7% of the snaps with 133 air yards, three red-zone targets, and a 14.66% target share. Pitts is a good buy-low right now due to the slow start. This is a game where the Falcons can finally get things going with their passing game, as Washington's defense has really struggled against the pass so far. Don't give up on this dynamic rookie just yet.
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes has started off his season with QB2, QB7, and QB7 finishes, demonstrating his stable floor to go along with a sky-high weekly ceiling. The Chiefs have dropped two games in a row, so this is a bounce-back spot against a struggling Eagles team. While Philly has been solid against the pass, ranking 13th in pass DVOA, the Chiefs are a different animal. Look for Mahomes to approach his ceiling here, as it's hard to see this team losing three games in a row.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill has combined for only eight receptions for 70 yards in his last two games, reflecting his boom-or-bust nature at times. He goes up against an Eagles defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts, but I'm not putting too much stock into that. I'm more interested in the fact that the Chiefs have lost two close games in a row and should come back with a vengeance against a below-average Eagles team. Lock and load Hill as an elite WR1.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce just continues to churn out production, finishing as TE4, TE1, and TE4 so far this season. He's simply not slowing down, even though he's on the wrong side of 30. It's hard to see the Eagles stopping him here, as they've given up the eighth-most fantasy points (PPR) to opposing tight ends. Kelce is locked and loaded as the top tight end every week, but we could see him hit his ceiling in this spot.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts hasn't been that great as a real-life quarterback, but he has fantasy finishes of QB6, QB10, and QB9, demonstrating his high floor due to his dual-threat ability. The Eagles will likely need to air it out and play at a fast pace to play catch-up with this high octane Chiefs offense, so you have to like the spot for Hurts here. It wouldn't surprise me to see yet another Top-10 finish for this dynamic rushing quarterback.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
CEH came alive against the Chargers last week, finishing as RB18 in full-PPR formats. It was encouraging to see that he rushed 17 times for 100 yards while catching both of his targets for nine yards. The Eagles just got gashed on the ground for 155 yards on 28 carries (5.54 YPC) by Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. However, we've seen how CEH sometimes disappears in games, as he's a supporting player on this offense. For that reason, I need to leave him in the lukewarm section.
Eagles RBs
Miles Sanders was limited to only two carries for 27 yards while catching 3-of-4 targets for 28 yards. That's simply alarming usage that reflects his low weekly floor. However, there's a chance that the Eagles make it a point of emphasis to get Sanders more involved, perhaps to slow this game down and keep Mahomes off the field, especially since the Chiefs rank 32nd in rush DVOA. Look for a bounce-back game from Sanders here, but I have to keep him in the lukewarm section.
Eagles WRs
DeVonta Smith continues to dominate usage for the wideouts, leading the team in air yard share (43.12%) and target share (22.13%). However, we're starting to see Jalen Reagor gain more of a role, as his 20.43% target share is not too far behind. The Chiefs defense is much worse than the Cowboys right now, so perhaps we can see a bounce-back from this passing game. However, we can't put them in the love section with the way Hurts struggled on Monday Night.
Eagles TEs
Dallas Goedert (66.31% snaps, 11.83% target share) and Zach Ertz (57.75% snaps, 11.83% target share) continue to eat into each other's fantasy value, but we could see at least one of them approach their ceiling in this projected shootout. Goedert has more upside, but Ertz still has a role in this offense. We'll likely need to see Ertz miss some time for Goedert to really unlock his full potential. I'd still consider both on the streaming radar at tight end in this spot.
Additional Notes:
It's tough to trust Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman as anything more than a WR4 with his sporadic usage (14.56% target share). Josh Gordon is coming soon.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Matchups We Love:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery is coming off a down week against the Browns, rushing for 34 yards on 10 carries while catching 2-of-4 targets for 21 yards. The entire Bears offense was a disaster in that game, especially their offensive line. The Bears would be wise to feed Monty here against a Lions defense that is tied for 22nd in fantasy points (PPR) allowed to running backs. Establishing the run could help rookie quarterback Justin Fields feel more comfortable after a poor debut against the Browns. Monty is an upside RB2 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
It's hard to like Goff in a road game against the Bears, despite his decent production so far. The Bears are tied for 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. This projects as a low-scoring game with a 42.5-point total. It's hard to see a scenario where Goff comes through with strong production as a streamer in this spot. I'd only consider starting him if I was in a SuperFlex league.
Other Matchups:
Lions RBs
D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams have provided fantastic fantasy production. Swift currently ranks as RB3 with Williams coming in as RB10 in PPR formats. This is because the duo has combined for 32 receptions this season. It's clear that the running backs will stay involved in the passing game, which can help them overcome a tough matchup like this one, as the Bears rank 13th in fantasy points (PPR) allowed to running backs. I'd consider Swift a high-end RB2 with Williams having some FLEX appeal in this spot.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson had a disappointing game against the Ravens, catching both of his targets for only 10 yards. However, he still ranks 7th among tight ends with a 17.65% target share. The Lions' offense is focused on Hockenson and their running backs, so the volume should continue to be there for the third-year tight end. The Bears rank 8th in fantasy points (PPR) allowed to tight ends, but Hockenson has established himself as an every-week starter due to his volume. Perhaps the team will look to get him more involved after a down week.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields is expected to start another week with Andy Dalton still injured. He had a poor debut against the Browns, limited to only 40% completion and 3.9 yards per attempt with one interception and an absurd nine sacks. Head coach Matt Nagy didn't help with his playcalling, but Fields has to be better. Luckily, he has a good matchup at home against a Lions defense that ranks 31st in pass DVOA. However, the Lions held Lamar Jackson to a 51.6% completion rate last week, so I'd temper your expectations here. Consider Fields a viable streamer if he starts in this spot due to his rushing upside.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Robinson has been one of the biggest busts at wide receiver so far, catching only 10-of-21 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown. He's been held back by a porous offensive line, poor playcalling, and subpar quarterback play. This is a great spot on paper against a Lions defense allowing 10.55 yards per target to wideouts (29th), but we need to keep him in the lukewarm section because of how inept this offense has looked so far. Consider A-Rob as an upside WR3 until we see some signs of life.
Additional Notes:
Bears WR Darnell Mooney and TE Cole Kmet have potential, but they're not worth starting due to the team's offensive struggles. I'd only consider using them in DFS tournaments. The Lions WRs are an easy avoid, as the targets are funneled towards the tight ends and running backs.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara has been an absolute workhorse this season, averaging 22 opportunities per game. While he hasn't been as efficient in the passing game as he was with Brees, the uptick in rushing volume helps keep him as an elite RB1. Kamara goes up against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd in rush DVOA, so this is a good spot where he could hit his ceiling. Consider Kamara a Top-3 running back this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones turned in a disappointing performance against the Falcons, finishing as QB20 despite the exploitable matchup. He now goes up against a Saints defense that ranks 6th in pass DVOA. The Saints have made life difficult for opposing passers, including Aaron Rodgers, who was limited to only 4.8 yards per attempt with two interceptions against them in Week 1. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer at quarterback.
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
Winston has been extremely underwhelming from a fantasy standpoint, finishing as QB4, QB26, and QB25 this season. That five-touchdown performance in Week 1 seems like a huge outlier. Winston is only averaging 21 passes per game, as it's clear that head coach Sean Payton is really treating him with kid gloves and making him manage the game. There's just not enough volume here to make Winston a viable streamer. There's also the risk that Taysom Hill vultures a touchdown. This is a situation to avoid.
Other Matchups:
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Barkley came alive last week against the Falcons, rushing 16 times for 51 yards and a touchdown while catching 6-of-7 targets for 43 yards. Barkley is being deployed as a workhorse, putting him firmly as an every-week RB1 with upside to join the elite tier. The issue here is that the Saints defense has also been dominant against the run, ranking 3rd in rush DVOA. The good news is that Barkley can catch a few checkdowns to make up for it, but we need to keep him in the lukewarm section.
Giants WRs
Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton suffered hamstring injuries against the Falcons and are OUT for this week. Kenny Golladay gets a big bump in value because he'll be the only established option on the perimeter. Golladay has a tough matchup against one of the best defenses in football, but the potential volume makes him an enticing option. I'd consider Golladay an upside WR3 in this spot.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram returned to the lineup against the Falcons, catching 2-of-6 targets for 21 yards. While the production was underwhelming, the volume makes him an intriguing option at tight end, especially with the Giants' injuries at wide receiver. We have seen Engram lead the team in target share in the past, so it wouldn't surprise me to see the team lean on him in this spot. Tight end is such a weak position that we need to be intrigued by any player that shows some semblance of a decent target share. Engram will likely be leaned on with Shepard and Slayton out.
Marquez Callaway (WR, NO)
Callaway seemed like everyone's favorite sleeper coming into the season, but he's fell flat on his face, catching only 7-of-11 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown. He's been severely limited by the extreme lack of volume in this passing game. Having said that, he's the only somewhat trustworthy option on the perimeter here. Callaway goes up against a Giants defense that ranks 20th in pass DVOA, so perhaps he sees an uptick in targets in this spot, especially if it turns out to be a close game.
Additional Notes:
I'm not interested in the Saints' tight end situation right now. We need an injury for Adam Trautman or Juwan Johnson to become fantasy-relevant.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 PM ET Games
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford just continues to tear it up, coming off a strong showing against the Bucs where he completed 27-of-38 passes for 343 yards and four touchdowns. He's now finished as QB10, QB19, and QB3 this season. Stafford goes up against a Cardinals defense that ranks 13th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, so it's not the easiest matchup. However, you have to fire him up as a Top-10 option with how this offense is firing on all cylinders.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp has taken his game to new heights with Stafford at quarterback, finishing as WR10, WR1, and WR3 in PPR formats this season. Kupp ranks third with a 35.48% target share, which reflects just how much chemistry there is between these two players. Kupp used to be considered neck and neck with teammate Robert Woods, but that is no longer the case. The Cardinals rank 23rd in fantasy points (PPR) allowed to wideouts, so there's a decent chance that he keeps it rolling in this projected shootout. Consider Kupp an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this projected shootout with a game total of 55 points.
Other Matchups:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray finds his way to the lukewarm section this time around because he's really struggled against this Rams defense throughout his career, posting a 75.8 quarterback rating, 58.7% completion rate, 5.9 yards per attempt, five touchdowns and four interceptions. He's also only rushed for 46 yards during this stretch, spanning four games. I know it's a small sample, but it's definitely worth noting, especially since the Rams defense ranks 11th in pass DVOA.
Cardinals RBs
James Conner led the way against the Jaguars last week, rushing for 43 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. He's only viable in games where the Cardinals are heavy favorites, which is not the case as they're road underdogs in LA in this spot. This profiles as more of a Chase Edmonds game because he has the receiving upside to provide strong production if the Cardinals fall behind. Edmonds has finished as RB17, RB20, and RB24 in PPR formats this season, demonstrating his floor as a decent RB2 in this scoring style. He's a solid play in this projected shootout, but Conner looks extremely touchdown-dependent.
Cardinals WRs
DeAndre Hopkins acted as a decoy last week after coming in as a game-time decision with a rib injury, catching 3-of-6 targets for only 21 yards. He should be good to go this week. This is a tough spot against Jalen Ramsey, who is currently the best corner in football. A.J. Green came alive last week, putting up five receptions for 112 yards, while rookie sensation Rondale Moore simply isn't playing enough (34.33% of the snaps last week) to trust right now. The best second option on this team is Christian Kirk, who leads the team with 265 air yards. If Hopkins goes, you're obviously firing him up, but temper your expectations. Kirk looks like your best bet out of the supporting options.
Rams RBs
Sony Michel carried the load in Darrell Henderson Jr's absence, rushing 20 times for 67 yards while catching 3-of-4 targets for 12 yards. Henderson is good to go for Sunday, but it remains unclear if we'll see a scale back in usage in his first game back. These backs go up against a Cardinals defense that ranks 19th in rush DVOA, so this is definitely their area of weakness. Henderson can be considered as an upside FLEX because of the uncertainty around his usage in his return from injury.
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
The Kupp eruption has come at the expense of Woods, who is only putting up a 20.43% target share, over 15 percent less than Kupp. Woods is also third on the team in air yards, behind Van Jefferson. The good news is that it's unlikely Kupp will maintain a 30+ percent target share, so we could see Woods get back on track. The Cardinals also rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to wideouts this season. Perhaps we see the Woods breakout in this spot, but I have to leave him in the lukewarm section for now.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee has finished as TE9, TE47, and TE8 this season. He's playing on 90.91% of the snaps, which is great after he spent last season sharing time with Gerald Everett. Higbee is only putting up a 12.9% target share, but we have to consider him a mid-tier TE1 because of this prolific offense. The Cardinals are giving up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, so this is a tough matchup, but Higbee's team context is too good. He remains in the lukewarm section here.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Matchups We Love:
Seahawks WRs
The 49ers just allowed Davante Adams to go off for 12 receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown. Their corners are Emmanuel Moseley (72.3 PFF Coverage Grade) and Deommodore Lenoir (61.3 PFF Coverage Grade). One of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett should be able to have their way with these corners, perhaps even both. We need to consider both of these players every-week WR1s with the way the team's target share is so consolidated. San Fran is ranked 16th in pass DVOA, so this matchup is nothing to fear.
49ers RBs
The running back situation is a bit unclear in San Fran, but it appears likely that Elijah Mitchell will function as the lead back if he's able to play. Mitchell played on 62.4% of the snaps in Weeks 1 and 2. In Week 3, Trey Sermon was out-snapped by Kyle Juszczyk. If Mitchell can play, he's in a terrific spot against a Seahawks defense that just got shredded by Derrick Henry and Alexander Mattison. This team ranks 18th in rush DVOA. I would expect the Niners to lean on the running game to keep Russell Wilson off the field. Consider Mitchell an RB2 if he's able to play.
Matchups We Hate:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Some fantasy players might see the appeal in streaming Jimmy G in a projected shootout with 52 points, but I'm not one of those people. Garoppolo has averaged 31.67 pass attempts per game this season, so there's simply not enough volume to make him a viable streamer. This is compounded by the fact that San Fran should have some success on the ground this week. I'd look elsewhere if I was desperate at quarterback.
Other Matchups:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Wilson is another player who has to deal with a lack of volume, averaging only 28.67 pass attempts per game. Wilson's absurd efficiency allows him to continue to finish as a QB1 on most weeks, but we saw his floor against the Vikings in Week 3 (QB19). If the Niners are able to find success on the ground here, we could see another floor week for Wilson. Having said that, we need to keep him in the lukewarm section because he's simply that good. The 49ers are also tied for 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Carson's usage has been on a downward trend: 77.78% snaps in Week 1, 62.96% snaps in Week 2, and 43.4% snaps in Week 3. This is concerning, especially considering that Travis Homer is playing over 20% of snaps every week, with Alex Collins also approaching that number. It's clear that the Seahawks don't want to put too much on Carson's plate, which caps his upside. However, the 49ers rank 16th in rush DVOA, so perhaps he gets things going in this spot. I'd consider Carson a mid-tier RB2 in this spot.
49ers WRs
Deebo Samuel continues to dominate usage, leading the team with a 26.32% target share last week. Brandon Aiyuk finally emerged from the doghouse, playing 85% of the snaps after being limited to about 45% in the first two weeks. Samuel can be considered an WR2 against a Seahawks defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA. Aiyuk is still risky as a WR3 because we need to see him get a few more targets, but it's a good sign that he's at least seeing the field more.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle continues to be used as a blocker too often to allow him to reach his ceiling as one of the best tight ends in the league. He's simply not running enough routes to contend with Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Having said that, Kittle has as much talent as any tight end in the league and we know how barren the position can be. Kittle takes on a Seahawks defense that is tied for 17th against tight ends this season.
UPDATE: San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said that tight end George Kittle (calf) and rookie running back Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) are in limbo for the Week 4 game against the Seattle Seahawks. Shanahan also said it's "not guaranteed" that Kittle will play on Sunday after not practicing the last couple of days.
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
There aren't any matchups to love in this spot. The game has a 45-point total. These are two of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL.
Matchups We Hate:
Ravens RBs
This backfield has become an absolute mess. Latavius Murray led in rush attempts, Ty'Son Williams led in snap share, and Devonta Freeman is starting to get some work. This is a situation to steer clear of in fantasy football, especially against a Broncos defense that ranks 8th in rush DVOA and has given up the second-fewest fantasy points (PPR) to opposing running backs. Pass on this situation.
Ravens WRs
I'm out on the Ravens wideouts in this spot because it's unclear how the volume will look with rookie Rashod Bateman's return to the lineup. Will the rookie make Sammy Watkins irrelevant for fantasy football? Will he cut into Marquise Brown's target share? It's tough to say, which is why we should take a wait-and-see approach. The Broncos are a tough defense, ranking 5th in pass DVOA. Their slow pace also suppresses volume because there are fewer plays. I'd leave your Ravens wideouts on the bench unless you're stuck here, at which point I'd rank them as 1) Brown, 2) Bateman, and 3) Watkins.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Bridgewater wasn't really needed against the Jets, but he was still highly efficient, completing 19-of-25 passes for 9.4 yards per attempt. He takes on a Ravens defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA, so this matchup isn't as imposing as it looks on paper. The issue here is that since both teams are so slow-paced, there might not be enough passing volume for Bridgewater to deliver strong fantasy production. For this reason, I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer in this spot.
Broncos RBs
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams have continued to share the backfield, with the veteran Gordon being the more efficient of the two backs so far. I'm bullish on Williams for the season, as I expect him to eventually take over as the 1A here, but this is a tough spot against a Ravens defense that ranks 10th in rush DVOA. Consider both players as risky FLEX options in this projected low-scoring affair.
Other Matchups:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson is a matchup-proof QB1 because of his rushing upside. He's finished as QB20, QB2, and QB13 so far this season. Bateman's return should be a boost for the entire offense, as the rookie profiles as a future alpha WR1. The Broncos have benefitted from facing the likes of Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, and Daniel Jones this season. Let's see how they fare against Jackson. While it's tough to see Jackson hitting his ceiling here, we still need to consider him a Top-7 option. Lamar is good to go this week, but he's dealing with a back issue.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews came alive against the Lions last week, catching 5-of-7 targets for 109 yards. Andrews is currently tied for third in air yard among tight ends with 190. His 11.2 average depth of target shows how he's able to win downfield, which is a rare skill for a tight end. Andrews doesn't need to be peppered with targets to provide fantasy value, although he does have a 20.99% target share. His arrow is trending up and I think he's the Ravens' main weapon in this game against the Broncos.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Sutton has taken over as the alpha WR1 for the Broncos with Jerry Jeudy sidelined, leading the team with a 38.11% air yard share and 21.51% target share. Now K.J. Hamler is out for the season, so Sutton can soak up even more targets. Tim Patrick also gets a bump with this news, but since the Broncos play at a slow pace, I'm not sure this offense can support another pass-catcher, especially with Noah Fant playing so well. Consider Sutton an upside WR3 in this spot with Patrick in the WR4 range.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant has put up an 18.28% target share this season, which ranks 5th among tight ends. He's finished as TE7, TE7, and TE29 so far this season. The Ravens have faced a murderer's row of tight ends this season: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, and T.J. Hockenson, which is why they have given up the second-most fantasy points (PPR) to tight ends. Consider Fant as a mid-range TE1 in this spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris came into the season as a desirable player because of his massive projected volume. He's surpassed expectations so far, especially last week, where he had an absurd 19 targets. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger just continued to feed the rookie with checkdowns because Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster were out of the lineup. It's unclear if the Steelers wideouts will play here, but Harris needs to be locked and loaded as an RB1. Even if he's inefficient, the usage is too good to not consider him as a Top-12 option, no matter the matchup.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams had his breakout game against the 49ers last week, catching 12-of-18 targets for 132 yards and a touchdown. Adams now has an absurd 37.78% target share on the season. He's eclipsed the century mark in consecutive games. The Packers offense looks like it's clicking again, so we need to consider Adams as an elite Top-3 option regardless of matchup. The Steelers have actually struggled against the pass, ranking 23rd in pass DVOA.
Matchups We Hate:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
Roethlisberger looks like he should have retired this offseason. He's averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt, as he's devolved into a checkdown machine. Roethlisberger should not even be considered as a streamer in any format. There's a reasonable chance that he'll eventually be benched for former first-rounder Dwayne Haskins. I wouldn't even use Big Ben in SuperFlex leagues.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan is one of the most touchdown-dependent tight ends in the NFL. He showed how low his weekly floor can be last week, where he caught his only target for six yards. Tonyan is now averaging 2.67 targets per game this season. That's simply not enough volume to make him a trustworthy TE1 on your roster. While there's always a chance at a spike week given his red-zone usage, I'd steer clear of Tonyan in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Steelers WRs
It's hard to love the Steelers wideouts with how Roethlisberger is playing, but it looks like Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster will play, which should help out Big Ben. Chase Claypool stepped up in their absence against the Bengals, catching 9-of-15 targets for 96 yards. One of these wideouts will likely rack up short receptions as the Steelers play catch-up with the Packers - my bet is on Johnson.
UPDATE: Claypool has officially been ruled out.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones is an every-week RB1, but he could be inconsistent at times, as evidenced by his RB50, RB2, and RB16 finishes so far this season. This is because the Packers play at a slow pace and sometimes they like to air it out downfield. This looks like a tough spot for Jones, as the Steelers rank 6th in rush DVOA. The good news is that Jones has made an impact in the passing game (10 targets). I don't anticipate Jones hitting his ceiling here, so we can consider him more of a mid-to-low tier RB1 in this spot.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Tom Brady (QB, NE)
I don't usually buy too much into revenge game narratives, but this fits the bill with Brady returning to New England to take on former head coach Bill Belichick. The Patriots have been stout against the pass this season, ranking 4th in pass DVOA, but they've faced Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston. Nothing compares to this dominant Bucs' passing attack. Fire up Brady as a Top-10 option in this spot.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, TB)
Let's not forget that Gronk gets to face his former team as well. The future Hall of Famer has turned back the clock this season, catching 16-of-20 targets for 184 yards and four touchdowns. You have to like Gronk's chances at finding the endzone. It's hard to imagine that Brady doesn't try his hardest to get Gronk a touchdown at Foxboro. I think we'll see another strong performance by Gronk in this spot.
UPDATE: Gronk has officially been ruled out.
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense because their run defense is so strong, causing opponents to air it out. This bodes well for Meyers, who leads the team in air yards (287) and target share (24.79%). Meyers gets a bump in value with James White sidelined, as the wideout can soak up some of those underneath targets. It's no coincidence that Meyers had his best game of the season when White left early last week, catching 9-of-14 targets for 94 yards. Expect another strong performance, especially in full-PPR formats.
Matchups We Hate:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Harris only played 30.56% of the snaps last week, as Brandon Bolden (45.83%) took over pass-catching duties for the injured James White. The Bucs remain one of the top run defenses in the NFL, ranking 7th in rush DVOA. The Pats will likely have to play catch-up in this game, so this projects as a negative game script for Harris. I'd leave him on your bench in this spot because he's one of the more game script-dependent backs in the NFL.
Other Matchups:
Bucs WRs
Chris Godwin (19.4% target share) remains the top option among these wideouts, while Mike Evans (342 air yards) is the main downfield threat. Antonio Brown is likely to return to the lineup this week, but I view him as the more volatile WR3 in this offense. The Pats have been good against the pass this season, but let's see how they perform against a more formidable opponent. Having said that, we need to leave these players in the lukewarm section because of how they eat into each other's value.
Bucs RBs
It's hard to trust this Bucs' running game since it's a three-headed monster between Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II, and Giovani Bernard. This profiles as more of a Fournette and Jones game, as it's a positive game script with the Bucs as 7.5-point road favorites. Bernard will see more work when the Bucs are playing from behind, which seems unlikely in this spot. Fournette has been better than Jones, so he's the more desirable FLEX here. Leave Jones on your bench, even against a Pats defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA.
UPDATE: Bernard has officially been ruled out.
Additional Notes:
Patriots QB Mac Jones could be an option in SuperFlex leagues because the Pats will likely have to air it out more in this spot. I'm not interested in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry because it's too tough to predict which will provide more production on a given week. However, they could have a solid performance in a pass-heavy game script like this one.
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