RADIO
John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Monday Night Football - Ravens vs. Raiders. His Week 1 MNF daily fantasy football advice and value plays.
Happy Monday Rotoballers! I hope your week one has been profitable thus far. We have an interesting matchup this Monday Night, with Baltimore heading into Vegas. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on September 13th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson is a threat to take over any game that he plays in. His probability of taking over games go up this season, as the Ravens' top three running backs, all fell to injury during training camp. Lamar has a great opening matchup here in Vegas, as the Raiders had a 16.5% DVOA against the pass and a 0.3% DVOA against the rush. He'll be my highest owned captain, and he will be chalk.
Derek Carr is one of the most confusing quarterbacks in football. I can't tell if he's a "guy" or not, but he should get the opportunity to sway me one way or another tonight. The Ravens had a stout pass DVOA of 0.4% last year, but we should expect some regression with the absence of Marcus Peters. I'll have a decent amount of Carr tonight, in the expectation that this will be a barn burner.
DFS Running Backs
Like I mentioned with Lamar, the Raiders come in with a DVOA of 0.3% against the run last year. This opens up a solid matchup for Williams. The biggest issue I have with Williams is that I'm not sure how many times he'll touch the ball. The upside is there, but I'll be searching for news all day to see how many touches he's expected to get.
I'm not in love with Jacobs in this matchup, with the Ravens defense racking up a DVOA of -18.05% in 2020. I think Jacobs has touchdown upside in this one, but I'll probably be lighter than the field on him. I'll most likely have more Kenyan Drake shares than Jacobs shares.
DFS Wide Receivers
The issue with the Ravens' wide receiver core (not including Mark Andrews) is that they all appear to be boom or bust guys rather than true #1 receivers. Brown is probably the closest to the "#1" mold. He's always a risky play but the Raiders were among the worst in DVOA against the passing game last season, so I'll be heavy on Brown and have shares of all Baltimore receivers.
I rate Edwards over Ruggs because it's likely that Marlon Humphrey will be on Ruggs most of the game. I've been high on Edwards since he's been drafted and now that he's playing as the second receiver to Ruggs, I think he could break out.
Other WRs: Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay, Hunter Renfrow
DFS Tight Ends
Darren Waller, Mark Andrews
I group these guys together because they're two of the best in the game at their position. I like them both tonight, but for different reasons. Starting with Waller, he's in a very good "funnel" tonight, with the Ravens being staunch against all receivers but struggle a bit more against tight-ends, with a 6.8% DVOA against them last season. With Andrews, he's in a tough matchup. However, with the Ravens' injury issues, it's likely they'll have to pass more. With Andrews being Lamar's number one target, he's going to get fed. I'll have decent shares of both.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
The Ravens are known for their explosive plays. However, with them being down to fourth string at running back, there is potential that they end up sputtering on the Raiders' half of the field, leaving opportunities for Justin Tucker to knock down field goals. On the contrary, if the Ravens march down the field and score a bunch of times, he's got a solid extra point floor.
Other D/ST: Daniel Carlson, Ravens D/ST
Have a good Monday everyone, see you on Thursday.
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