FFPC Best-Ball Overvalued/Undervalued Players

July 27, 2021

Pierre Camus analyzes undervalued and overvalued players in FFPC Best Ball formats based on preseason ADP for 2021 at QB, RB, WR, and TE.

Whether you're ready to compete in the FFPC Best Ball Tournament or simply want to enter a few $5 Best Ball Slim leagues, you'll need to know which players to target in this high-stakes format. Not all best-ball leagues are the same in terms of scoring and that especially pertains to FFPC, which utilizes TE-premium scoring. That's why we now host best-ball ADP specific to FFPC.

In addition to our ADP analysis, you can find constantly updated FFPC rankings courtesy of Scott "The King" Engel and yours truly to give you an idea how we approach drafts. While that serves as a guide to how drafts are playing out, smart fantasy drafters will want to know how the ADP for certain players compares to other best-ball sites like Fanball (BB10) and Drafters. That's where we have to do some side-by-side comparison to see which players may be overvalued or undervalued relative to other sites.

Today, we'll look at players who are being drafted significantly earlier or later in FFPC leagues so you may target or avoid in order to maximize value. Tight ends will be excluded for the obvious fact they carry more weight in FFPC leagues.

Overvalued

Trey Sermon (RB, SF)

Count me among the Sermon truthers this year. He doesn't have breakaway speed or an extended track record of college success but truthfully how many rookie running backs do this year? Najee Harris and... yeah. Javonte Williams and Michael Carter both ran a 4.6 too and are in competition for touches in a crowded backfield. Travis Etienne must beat out James Robinson or accept a pass-catching role only. When looking for a rookie RB breakout candidate, Sermon is as good as any and is in the most favorable offensive system.

Here's the big BUT. He is an ideal RB3 or even RB2 for those going with a "Modified Zero RB" approach this year. BUT is he worth the 69th overall pick? Carter is going 77th even though he might have a better path to touches this season. Raheem Mostert, who could well retain the starting job in San Francisco, is going later than Sermon at 75th overall. As much as I like Sermon's potential, his price has gotten too rich and that's especially the case in FFPC where he is several picks earlier than in BB10 or Drafters leagues.

Tom Brady (QB, TB)

There are no longer question marks about Brady transitioning to a new team, his fit, his age, anything. Brady is and will be the GOAT until he turns 50. Coming off a season that included 4,633 passing yards and 40 TD along with another Super Bowl ring (sigh), Brady is a rock-solid QB1. Is he a league-winner in best-ball leagues though?

Brady had the fourth-highest win rate among quarterbacks in FFPC last year but that was at an ADP of 107. If he's being drafted at 89, which makes him QB9, that reduces the return on investment. For a pocket passer who has already shown his ceiling, it doesn't make sense to use an earlier pick on him when you could get similar production from Joe Burrow or Matt Ryan around the spot Brady was selected last year.

Giovani Bernard (RB, TB)

In the later rounds, hitting on a backup running back isn't too different from throwing darts blindfolded. Amidst the rookies and third-stringers lies a comforting name in Gio Bernard. He's played the pass-catching back role in Cincy for eight years, rarely starting a game unless there's an injury, which happened 10 times last year with Joe Mixon. Bernard wasn't exactly a league-winner but he's serviceable in a pinch. That said, he's now moving to a new team with a pass-heavy offense and competing with Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and maybe KeShawn Vaughn for snaps. Why are FFPC drafters so much higher on him?

It's possible one of these backs get shipped off to a RB-needy team like the Rams or simply doesn't make the cut in camp. Surely, the team didn't sign Bernard if they weren't planning to have a role for him. Or perhaps we shouldn't be worried about Fournette for other reasons.

Add #Bucs RB Leonard Fournette to the list of players against getting the COVID-19 vaccine. pic.twitter.com/1IqlksESap

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 22, 2021

Regardless of how the depth chart shakes out, we know exactly what Gio's role will be - the same as it was in Cincinnati and eerily similar to that of James White in New England. There's a connect-the-dots aspect to this pick as drafters are viewing Bernard as the new White. The problem is that it was a different time and a different offense. This isn't a dumpoff-heavy team because Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski will be running loose across the field. Bernard went over 1,000 scrimmage yards the first three years of his career but in the past five years he's averaged 714 total yards and four touchdowns per 16 games. I have a hard time envisioning more than that and would prefer a running back with more upside.

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)

It's hard to find a receiver drafted earlier in FFPC leagues than other best-ball formats because tight ends are always selected higher and bump them down. Sanders seems to be the exception, going a few spots earlier than BB10 and a full round earlier than Drafters.

The expectation when John Brown left in free agency was that second-year man Gabriel Davis would fill that void. Instead, the team tabbed the veteran Sanders to replace him. This isn't a straight swap of roles, however. Brown posted a 12.8 aDoT in the nine games he played with Buffalo last year and 14.7 aDoT the year before. Sanders has posted an aDoT of 8.8, 10.8, and 9.9 the past three years with New Orleans and Denver. At this stage of his career at 34 years of age, Sanders isn't a field-stretcher so much anymore. That role should go to Davis, who posted a 15.2 aDoT in his rookie year. Sanders sees most of his action in the slot these days, so Cole Beasley is the one who could see his value drop while Gabriel Davis is still a worthy late-round flier.

As far as Sanders, his role will be versatile but his days as a big-play receiver are over. As it stands, I would rather take John Brown 20 spots later in the off-chance he stays healthy and puts together some big plays as the replacement for Nelson Agholor.

Undervalued

Melvin Gordon III (RB, DEN)

The Aaron Rodgers drama appears all but over so we can accept the fact that Denver is going to roll with Teddy Bridgewater and/or Drew Lock at quarterback. That's a positive for the running backs because they will attempt to control the ball as much as possible. Javonte Williams could take over the lead role but it's hard to believe Gordon will simply be benched outright at any point. This will likely be a 1-2 tandem that skews more heavily toward Gordon early on and gives way more to Williams later on. This should affect his redraft value but not in best-ball as much.

The most surprising aspect of Gordon's ADP is the fact that Williams is going almost 50 picks sooner. Gordon isn't viewed as a league-winner, understandably so, but he becomes a screaming value outside the top 100 picks. He did average 4.6 yards per carry last year and came within a hair of rushing for 1,000 yards along with nine touchdowns. Imagine if Williams gets injured or simply isn't outstanding as a rookie. Then those who opted for the vet instead of the rookie will be reaping the benefits.

Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)

This will be brief because we still have no idea what the quarterback situation is in Houston with new rumors coming out every day about the Deshaun Watson drama. The Texans also traded for Anthony Miller recently, which puts another underachieving receiver on their squad alongside Chris Conley and Keke Coutee. That shouldn't affect Cooks much as the clear WR1 in this offense.

Assuming Tyrod Taylor is the starter for most of the season, this could work in Cooks' favor. Taylor tends to favor the outside receiver and has no hesitation slinging it deep. This team will be in come-from-behind mode early and often all season so the opportunity for Cooks is enough to make him worth a pick regardless of how bad the team is by season's end.

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

I get it, Landry just isn't exciting. Before Michael Thomas came along, Landry was "slant boy" and chided for averaging approximately one yard per catch. Of course, these exaggerations undercut the fact he went over 1,110 yards in consecutive seasons for the Dolphins and then led the league with 112 receptions. In Cleveland, he's actually been just fine for fantasy purposes despite misperceptions.

Over the past three seasons, he's gone over 15 PPR points on 16 occasions, or more than a third of his games played as a Brown. That'll play especially at the price of a WR3.

Worried about Odell Beckham coming back? Don't be.

Landry's production is nearly the same with or without OBJ on the field. Best-ball drafters tend to get caught up in ceiling but there's also something to be said for a player with a steady target share that will avoid you from those down weeks. Plus, considering the fact he was averaging 7.3 receptions and 79.5 yards per game between Week 12-15 before hitting the COVID list in Week 16, Landry showed he is capable of producing at a high level in this iteration of the Browns offense.

Will Fuller V (WR, MIA)

DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)

FFPC drafters really aren't sold on the Dolphins are they? That might not be it, seeing as how Tua Tagovailoa's ADP is almost perfectly in line with other sites. The fact is if you want a piece of this Dolphins receiving corps, it makes the most sense to bet on Mike Gesicki in a TE-premium format.

Fuller is typically an ideal best-ball pick. Over 53 games in five seasons that have included injuries and suspensions, Fuller has posted 13 games of 20 or more fantasy points in PPR leagues. You avoid the headache of worrying about health and matchups while reaping the benefits when he goes off. Despite that, FFPC drafters are off him with the move to Miami. Admittedly, Tua Tagovailoa isn't and may never be Deshaun Watson but the big-play ability is still there and Fuller is on a one-year prove-it deal.

Parker's ADP has taken a big hit this offseason because of the team signing Fuller and drafting Waddle. This is more understandable because he goes from the clear WR1 to part of a split and could eventually become the third option.

In best-ball, Parker is simply not enticing enough because he is a floor play rather than one with boom potential. Fuller is the better bet, which again explains his draft slot being 35 picks higher. Other wideouts going in his same ADP range such as Henry Ruggs, Corey Davis, and Marvin Jones are all better picks. That said, if he falls closer to pick 150, there are few receivers worth selecting over him unless you take a flier on a rookie like Rashod Bateman or Rondale Moore.

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