NFL Draft Reaction - RB ADP Risers

May 6, 2021

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of multiple running backs in the weeks before and after the last NFL Draft and assesses their situations and the reasons behind those moves.

We've already looked at QB ADP Risers and TE ADP Risers following the 2021 NFL Draft. Now, let's look at the most heavily-scrutinized position of all - running back.

By now, with free agency and the draft finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs are varying during the last few days as we start to gear up for our fantasy draft season. In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from just before the past NFL draft to right after it finished, using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period.

Now, let's evaluate some running back risers over the past week to decide if their increased fantasy value is justified.

Running Back - ADP Risers

Michael Carter, New York Jets

This is a fantastic development. The New York Jets paid big bucks to hopefully get their QB of the present and the future by drafting Zach Wilson with the no. 2 overall pick. They got protection with a guard later in the first, but most impressively they snatched a couple of great offensive weapons in the second and fourth round in WR Elija Moore and RB Michael Carter, both projecting to start from Week 1. Talk about a (rare for Gang Green) W, folks.

When it comes to Carter, just a quick look at the chart above tells you what's popping. This man's ADP and his stock have doubled from their value before the draft to that a few days after it took place, going from around 150 to around 75 as of this writing. That's insane. But that also makes all of the sense. The Jets canned infinite Frank Gore, and with La'Mical Perine and Josh Adams as their other two RBs in 2020, well, it's not that there is strong competition at the position for the 2021 season.

Carter will need to fight free-agent addition Tevin Coleman, sure, but Coleman was able to stay on the field in just eight games last season due to shaky health while finishing with a stinky 12.7 PPR points on the season. Coleman had been a top-24 RB in three of the prior four years, but those seasons took place while in Atlanta's offense. Carter will crush it on passing plays, and he's topped 1,000 yards in his last two college seasons. Only two (three at most) RBs fell in better situations than Carter this draft, so the rise is more than understandable (that being said, drafting Carter before the seventh or eighth round still feels a little bit risky in redraft leagues).

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

If there was a team expected to draft a tailback that was Miami. Alas, they didn't. Is that bad, though? Not sure if that hurts Miami's overall game and projections, but what it won't definitely affect is Myles Gaskin's stock and opportunities entering 2021. The Dolphins featured a freaking seven rushers in 2020, in which was pretty much a bonkers backfield. Gaskin, although playing 10 games compared to Matt Breida's 12 and Patrick Laird's 16, still was able to finish the year with the most rushing attempts (142) and the most targets among his teammates.

That's a good start. A good follow-up was Miami not drafting any sort of backup that poses a threat for Gaskin in 2021... while only adding RB Malcolm Brown through free agency. Brown is not what you'd call a bad tailback, don't get me wrong, but he comes off an RB43 season for the Rams in which he finished with 580 yards from scrimmage and 5 rushing TDs on 134 opportunities. Gaskin logged 972 yards and the same 5 combined TDs on 189 opportunities. Simply put: Brown scored 109 PPR points to Gaskin's 164. No contest, folks.

Gaskin is the clear no.1 rusher in Miami for the upcoming year. He will have plenty of chances to thrive, and the best of all is that he can do it on both the ground and on the passing game. Gaskin was the 12th-best RB on a per-game scoring basis with 16.4 FPG, and the only rusher with 10+ yards per reception while targeted more than 30 times last season.

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons

There are different optics when it comes to assessing Mike Davis' future in Atlanta and his fantasy upside for the 2021 season, but at the end of the day, the ADP rise is understandable. If you remember, last year wasn't the one for Christian McCaffrey when it comes to staying healthy. That has a lot to do with Mike Davis' ascension through the 2020 campaign as he was the one tasked with backing up CMC... and he put on a show while at it.

In the W2-W6 span of games, Davis played an average of 46 snaps per game (he shared the field with a healthy CMC in W2, mind you) and topped 11.5 FP in all of those five matches for an average of 20.4 PPR points per game. Davis went back down to earth after that, scoring an average of 11.6 FPG in the other nine games he played, but still reaching 10+ points in three of those and topping 15 twice, with a high of 26.3 PPR in Week 14.

Are the Falcons going to get Elite-Level Davis or Career-Backup Davis? Hard to know. I wouldn't expect Mike to put up some 20+ PPG for Atlanta, even less on an offense that has a great passer and is packed with playmakers and has added another one to the fold in TE Kyle Pitts. But Davis is getting to a backfield in which his strongest (?) competition will be Cordarrelle Patterson. Paying a top-60/fifth-rounder for Mike Davis might be a little too overboard and his ADP will probably end falling a bit through the next few weeks, but I get where those fantasy GMs making that ADP rise comes from.

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