NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/7): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

March 7, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 7th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Sunday, March 7th, 2020 at 5:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/7

• • Florida Panthers vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-145) - 5.5O
  • New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins (-280) - 5.5U
  • Washington Capitals (-105) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (-115) - 6O
  • New York Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-145) - 6O
  • Nashville Predators vs. Dallas Stars (-145) - 5.5U
  • Ottawa Senators vs. Calgary Flames (-190) - 5.5O

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Patrice Bergeron, BOS ($7,500 DK / 7,700 FD) - Bergeron has been a steady piece for Boston for many years and he is always one of the better center plays to consider in all formats. He is playing slightly above a point per game pace and has a goal and assist against New Jersey this year.
• Evgeni Malkin, PIT ($6,100 DK / $7,600 FD) - Malkin is finally producing like the way we know he could and he is now on a three-game point streak. Over his last 10 games played, Malkin has produced a point in seven of those while also hitting double-digit DK points in six of those games as well.
• Evgeny Kuznetsov, WSH ($4,200 DK / $6,400 FD) - The pricing on Kuznetsov has come down tremendously and even though he has not been performing well this year, the cheap price point for someone of his talent and correlation to Ovi is too good to not consider for tournament builds. The pricing discrepancy can even be seen between the two sites as DK has him over 2k cheaper than FD!

Other centers to consider: Couturier, Trocheck, Pavelski, Monahan, Hintz, Backlund, Krejci

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, BOS ($8,900 DK / $8,400 FD) - If there is one player to play from Boston by himself, it would be David Pastrnak. Pastrnak has 20 points in 14 games this season with 10 of those points being goals. Over the last 10 games that he has played, Pastrnak has recorded 12 points with five of those being goals.
• Jonathan Huberdeau, FLA ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) - Huberdeau was in a bit of a slump recently but has finally snapped out of it over his last two games as he has recorded two goals and two assists over his last two games against the Predators. Huberdeau has fared well against Carolina as he has scored three goals and one assist in three games this season against the Canes while also taking 11 shots on goal.
• Jared McCann, PIT ($3,400 DK / $3,800 FD) - One Penguin player that has been on a hot streak has been Jared McCann. McCann has scored a point in each of his last three games while also averaging three shots on goal per game during that three-game stretch.

Other wings to consider: Ovechkin, Forsberg, Marchand, Tkachuk, JVR, Guentzel, Hornqvist, Farabee, Rust, Kreider, Teravainen, Necas, Benn, Batherson, Ritchie, Kapanen, Gurianov, Laughton, Smith, Aston-Reese, Dube

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• John Carlson, WSH ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) - While the matchup against the Flyers is a tough one, getting Carlson at under 6k on DK is always intriguing. Carlson is a bit on the cold side as he has gone pointless in three straight games but he is averaging over three peripheral stats per game which creates a good floor for him in cash game builds.
• John Klingberg, DAL ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD) - Klingberg has found some success against the Preds this season as he has recorded four assists in just two games this season. His pricing is still floating around in the 5k range on DK and for the upside of him almost playing at a point per game pace, the pricing is too good to pass up on.
• Matt Grzelcyk, BOS ($3,600 DK / $3,800 FD) - Grzelcyk has finally returned from injury and should always be in play as long as he is quarterbacking the top power-play unit for Boston. While his numbers don't necessarily jump off of the page, he has recorded four assists in eight games this season and is a cheaper way of getting some correlation to Boston's top line on the power play team.

Other defensemen to consider: Hamilton, Fox, Giordano, McAvoy, Ekholm, Provorov, Subban, Smith, Vaakanainen, Schultz, Vatanen

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Tuukka Rask, BOS ($8,400 DK / $7,900 FD) - The Bruins come in as the heaviest home favorites on the slate so the safest goalie pick on the slate for cash games would be rostering Rask. Tuukka is 8-3-2 on the year with a 2.56 goals allowed average and a .902 save percentage while also being 1-0 against the Devils this season.  Rask is 3-0-1 when on home ice and is only allowing 2.35 goals per game when in the net at home so all signs point to him as one of the strongest goaltender selections for tonight's slate.
• David Rittich, COL ($8,300 DK / $7,700 FD) - With Jacob Markstrom returning to the lineup Saturday night against Edmonton, we can anticipate Rittich getting the start on Sunday against Ottawa. Rittich is 3-5-1 on the season with a 2.93 goals allowed average and a .904 save percentage but is 2-2 against the Senators with a 3.97 goals allowed average and a .884 save percentage. While those numbers are high, Rittich has faced them three times on the road and should benefit from his team having the line matching advantage.
• Casey DeSmith, PIT ($7,800 DK / $7,500 FD) - Tristan Jarry tended to the net on Saturday afternoon as the Penguins took on the Flyers so writing up DeSmith is anticipating that Jarry will rest Sunday since they are on the end of a back-to-back. DeSmith has been a solid backup goaltender this year as he is 4-2 with a 2.73 goals allowed average and a .893 save percentage. DeSmith is 1-1 against the Rangers this year with a 2.99 goals allowed average and a .895 save percentage so he has had some success against this Rangers squad earlier this year.

Other goalies to consider: Khudobin, Hart, Murray

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

• BOS 1
  • Marchand/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak ( McAvoy/ Grzelcyk, d-men add on)
    • With Boston being on the slate, their top line of Marchand, Bergeron, and Pastrnak will certainly garner attention on all sites and will be one of the top owned stacks on the slate. This line is carrying a 63.86 corsi for rate in over 156 minutes of ice time this season while also having a 2.42 goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time. They generate 11.91 high danger chances per 60 minutes and 28.44 scoring chances per 60 which are the highest rates on the Bruins squad. When this line is on home ice, their numbers jump up a tad as they generate close to 33.48 scoring chances for and 14.56 high danger chances for and this is partly due to them having the line matching advantage which gets their lines into favorable matchups throughout the game.
• DAL 1 
  • Benn/ Pavelski/ Gurianov (Burns, d-men add on)
    • While this newly formed top line hasn't spent much time on the ice together, they do have some solid stats when skating together at even strength. This line has seen 26 minutes of ice time and in those 26 minutes, this line is generating 29.94 scoring chances for and 16.12 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. The Stars are coming off of a shutout performance against the Blue Jackets where they won 5-0 and this specific Dallas line of Benn, Pavelski, and Gurianov generated five scoring chances and two high danger chances in just eight minutes of even-strength skating time. With other top lines on the slate, this Stars line could go a tad overlooked which makes them an ideal target in tournaments.
• PHI 1
  • JVR/ Couturier/ Farabee (Provorov, d-men add on)
    • The Flyers top line should be matching up with the Ovechkin line for most of the game tonight which means they should have plenty of scoring opportunities come their way. The top Flyers line has a corsi of 64.17 on the season while having an expected goal for rate per 60 minutes of 2.21. They generate plenty of chances as they have a rate of 31.49 scoring chances per 60 while only having 6.12 high danger chances for. The Ovechkin line is allowing 25.25 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice time while also having a very high rate of 15.15 high danger chances allowed per game which bodes well for the Couturier line.

Other Stacks to consider: PIT 1, OTT 1, PIT 2, CGY 2, CAR 2, CGY 3, OTT 3

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C:  Crosby (1.1X), Couturier (1.5X), Pavelski (1.55X), Monahan (1.7X)

W: Ovechkin (1X), B. Tkachuk (1.35X), Rust (1.55X), Forsberg (1.7X)

D: Carlson (1.1X), Klingberg (1.15X), Josi (1.25), Chabot (1.65X)

G: Hart (1.25X), Rittich (1.6X), DeSmith (2X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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