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Phil Goyette evaluates starting pitcher prospects who could be hidden gems in 2021 fantasy baseball redraft leagues. These SP could break out and deliver strong value.
With pitchers and catchers reporting, Major League Baseball is bearing down on a return to normalcy for the 2021 season. With the MLBPA rejecting MLB’s offer of a delayed start to the 2021 season, opening day is now officially scheduled for Thursday, April 1.
When analyzing the pool of pitching prospects for 2021, there are a couple of rule changes to keep in mind. Teams will be ordinarily be allowed a 26-man active roster, which basically creates an extra roster slot for pitching depth in the modern game. Also, teams will be able to name a five-player ‘taxi squad’ for road trips. I would anticipate a lot of taxi squad depth will come in the form of pitching as well. What this means is that, similar to 2020, we could see a large number of pitchers take the bump, diluting the average innings pitched by individual pitchers across the board.
This article will focus on ‘Hidden Gem’ pitching prospects for 2021. We all know that Ian Anderson and Sixto Sanchez are relevant young arms for your redraft league, so I’m going to dig deeper. The relevant player pool for this piece consists of pitchers outside the Top-400 ADP, using the RotoBaller Average Draft Position Aggregator Tool.
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Luis Patino, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 410
The Rays pulled off a shocking trade this offseason, sending former AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell to San Diego. As part of the return, the Rays landed Luis Patiño, an intriguing arm that could fit perfectly in Tampa Bay’s tactical oeuvre.
Patiño, still just 21 years old, earned a big league debut with San Diego in the shortened 2020 season. He appeared in 11 games, making one start and posting a 5.19 ERA. His downfall last year was his control. Patiño posted a cringy 16.5% walk-rate in his MLB debut. However, during his minor league career, Patiño showcased much better control, with walk-rates in the single digits at most stops.
His stuff can be electric. It starts with an athletic delivery that maximizes his 6’1”, 192-pound frame. His four-seam fastball, changeup, and slider are all capable of gathering whiffs. In particular, his slider generated a whiff rate near 50%. This makes the slider a likely candidate for increased usage going forward.
The Padres employed Patiño in a middle relief/bulk innings type of role last year. I think Tampa Bay will likely use him in a similar fashion. RotoBaller’s Premium Cutter projections having him working 93 innings this season with a 4.60 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, while striking out more than a batter per inning. I might take the under on the ERA and WHIP, as I believe his control will come back into line with his minor league numbers.
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Indians
ADP: 423
Emmanuel Clase came over to Cleveland in the trade which sent Corey Kluber to the Texas Rangers in 2019. Clase then got popped with an 80-game suspension in May of 2020 for using PEDs. Due to the shortened 2020 schedule, Clase’s suspension will bleed over into the first month of the 2021 season.
In a 21-game stint with Texas in 2019, Clase showed us why he should be on your radar for the 2021 fantasy season. His primary weapon is a fastball which averaged 99 mph in 2019. His heater comes in two variations. The four-seamer has carry and ride and can work to generate whiffs at the top of the zone. The 'cut’ fastball works away from right-handed batters in the 98-99 mph range, and Clase showed an ability to locate it on the outside black. This is a closer’s fastball, featuring spin rates in the 97th percentile of all fastballs thrown in 2019.
Clase's breaker is a hard, tight spinning variety with good drop. He generally pumps it in around 90 to 91 mph. The command of his breaking pitch needs some refinement. However, if he gains confidence in its usage, then it gives Clase a second devastating out-pitch that will work against both right and left-handed batters.
Prior to his suspension, Clase was in consideration for an important late-inning role in the Cleveland bullpen. Roster Resource is projecting Clase to feature as the 7th inning setup man for Cleveland this year, behind Nick Wittgren and James Karinchak on Cleveland’s closer ladder. However, Clase's stuff is better than Wittgren’s. In the event Karinchak is ineffective in the closer’s role, Clase could be the next man up in closing situations. In holds leagues, Clase should be owned as soon as he comes back from suspension.
Kris Bubic, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 434
Kris Bubic is a fast-moving left-handed starter that was drafted out of Stanford University as the 40th overall pick in the 2018 draft. Being a left-hander with solid pitchability and an advanced changeup, Bubic was able to carve through the lower levels of the minor leagues. Then, the Royals shocked us last summer by calling Bubic up to The Show for his debut. He wound up starting 10 games for the Royals in 2020.
Bubic's changeup still flashes as an MLB-level plus pitch. However, major league hitters still managed to touch it up, slugging .474 against it last summer. The pitch works as a whiff generator, getting whiffs at a 31.1% rate last season. When the changeup is working well for Bubic, the velocity is in the low 80s and the pitch starts at the hitter’s knees before dropping off the table. This forces batters to swing at a pitch that looks like it’s going to be a called strike at the bottom of the zone. However, he missed his mark up in the zone too frequently last season, with his changeup being punished as a result:
Bubic slots in as the 5th starter in the Royals rotation to start the season. If he is able to tighten the command of his changeup, he can hold that role throughout the year. Upside projection in that scenario would have him with a K/9 over 9.0 and would possibly shave a half-run off his 4.50 ERA projection.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 451
Logan Gilbert was popped by Seattle with the 14th overall pick in the 2018 draft out of Stetson University. Gilbert was hospitalized with mononucleosis shortly after the draft, so his professional debut had to wait until 2019.
His debut did not disappoint. Gilbert made 26 starts across 3 levels in 2019, reaching Double-A by the end of the season. His FIP at each level was below 3.00. In 2020, he impressed the Mariners’ front office in both Spring Training 2.0 and in his work at the alternate site. He was described by the Mariners' organization as a diligent and focused worker while displaying great stuff and command.
Gilbert has always displayed a solid feel for pitching to go along with repeatable mechanics. The repeatable mechanics are crucial, as they allow Gilbert to leverage his 6’6” frame without costing him anything in the control department. Add in a fastball sitting in the mid-90s, two shapes of effective breaking balls, and a changeup that’s shown improvement, and it’s easy to project Gilbert as a future rotation piece.
Gilbert was given a non-roster invitation to the Mariners’ 2021 spring training. Given the team’s stated desire to manipulate the service time of its young stars (see the Kevin Mather controversy this past week), we are unlikely to see Gilbert's debut until later in 2021. However, be sure to monitor his performance at Triple-A early in the year. If he forces the issue, Gilbert is worth a hefty FAAB bid or high-priority waiver claim when he hits the Seattle rotation later in the spring or summer.
Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 465
One of my favorite anecdotes about Matt Manning comes from a piece by MLB.com's Mike Petriello, digging into the data from the 2019 MLB Futures game. Manning, who is a lanky 6’6”, eclipsed seven feet of extension on his four-seam fastball during that Futures Game outing. It puts him in rare company, including 2020 breakout rookie starting pitcher Ian Anderson:
Manning pairs this high-extension four-seamer with a breaking ball which grades as an MLB plus pitch. His changeup has also shown some promise during his time in the minor leagues. He has the potential to show hitters three high-whiff offerings. This has resulted in Manning maintaining strikeout rates north of 28.0% throughout his professional career.
Manning is on Detroit’s 40-man roster. However, the Motor City rotation situation is muddled. Detroit acquired innings-soakers José Ureña and Julio Teheran this offseason. Pitching prospects Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize both feature on the team’s 40-man roster as well. All that being said, Manning has displayed more upside than any of those arms in front of him at various points in his professional career.
One red flag is that Manning battled a forearm strain this summer at Detroit’s alternate site, forcing the team to shut him down in late August. Manning has described the strain as ‘mild’, and it looks like he’s ramping up for a normal offseason in 2021. It seems like good news, but the situation bears monitoring.
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
ADP: 465
Trevor Rogers came out of the gate in his MLB debut with the Marlins and surprised us by featuring a fastball that averaged 94 mph. He can climb the ladder with his four-seam fastball, working effectively at the top of the zone to generate swings and misses.
Digging deeper into the profile, Rogers also featured a slider, changeup, and two-seam fastball in his 2020 debut. His changeup looked particularly strong. First, the pitch comes out of the same arm slot with the same tempo as the fastball. Second, the changeup is a low spin offering around 1450 RPM, which just kills the ball and creates an extreme drop relative to the MLB average. Third, these pitch characteristics combine to produce solid results, with Rogers posting a 35% whiff rate on his changeup in the 2020 season.
Rogers 6.11 ERA in 2020 should hopefully create a buying opportunity in dynasty. He’s currently slotted in as a candidate for the back-end of the Marlins rotation. RotoBaller expert Nick Marino’s projections are realistic outcomes for what Rogers can do this year; a 4.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 114 strikeouts in 107 innings pitched.
These six consecutive strikeouts (changeup, fastball, fastball, fastball, changeup, slider) against the Braves last September gives you an idea of what Rogers is capable of:
Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees
ADP: 521
The first stop on your tour of Clarke Schmidt’s repertoire should be his slider. He throws it hard, generally in the mid-80s. That sets it nicely about 10 mph below his fastball velocity. It’s a pitch with great depth, registering a whopping 51.2 inches of vertical break and spinning over 3000 RPMs in his MLB debut last season. His slider is one of those offerings that you can gauge by looking at how hitters react to it. It is a nasty pitch that generates some uncomfortable swings.
Next stop? The fastball. Schmidt can manipulate it into two effective shapes. His four-seamer is capable of working at the top of the zone, where it can live by generating popups and whiffs. His sinker has good drop and ride, and he throws it hard in the 94-95 mph range. It should be a weapon in generating groundball outs.
One obstacle facing Schmidt is the amount of pitching depth the Yankees have added in the offseason. He’s likely on the outside of the rotation looking in at this juncture. Another concern to monitor is Schmidt’s arm health. He’s already undergone Tommy John surgery earlier in his career. Now, the team is reporting that he’s been diagnosed with a right elbow strain that might prevent him from being ready for opening day.
All that being said, Schmidt’s fastball/slider combination is big-league-ready. If his arm health returns and the Yankees have a need for him in the rotation, he could turn into a profitable pitcher in the 2021 season.
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