RADIO
Chris Wassel delivers his top DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS value plays and research for February 19th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, February 19th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/19
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- Florida Panthers vs. Detroit Red Wings
- Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes
- Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames
- Winnipeg Jets vs. Vancouver Canucks
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With the short four-game slate, picking the right goalie is essential. Out of the eight goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one even touch the two North Division clashes? It's a great question. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Also, Detroit goaltenders are exceedingly cheap at just below $7,000 on FanDuel. Kevin Lankinen is only $7,200 as well. That is something to keep in mind.
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Florid Panthers and their gifted power play face the porous penalty kill of the Detroit Red Wings. After that, it gets a little crazy. Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat are Chicago's most versatile duo (Chicago's power play is one of the best). Then, there is that North Division clash between Vancouver and Winnipeg with two porous defenses -- particularly Winnipeg's penalty kill.
It will be hard to avoid Connor McDavid again on Friday night as Calgary has become considerably predictable to play against. There will be tons of chances. It is only a question if Jacob Markstrom can thwart Edmonton's top lines from filling the boxscore.
The later North Division game features Vancouver's power play and then Winnipeg's top-six going up against a defense that allows more up the middle than a tractor-trailer. Chances should be plenty and Vancouver's overall defense ranks 30th in the league with 3.6 goals per game allowed. Winnipeg's penalty kill is bottom-third on the road and yields over three goals a game overall away from home.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($8,800 DK / $9,100 FD) - McDavid is our top pick because of the goal potential. He keeps getting assists (16 in the last ten games). The Edmonton center has not scored in five games and this is in spite of 5+ shots in four of five of those games. That means the shot bonus is in play for DraftKings. Pairing McDavid with a winger not named Leon Draisaitl can help. Again, Calgary bleeds scoring chances along with Edmonton. It is all about the conversion rates. One could slide down to Florida's dynamic duo of Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau versus Detroit's penalty kill.
- Mark Scheifele, WPG ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD) - Scheifele figures into the scoring at a slightly lower-priced tier on Wednesday. Again, Vancouver is likely to give up goals but how many is the question. Vancouver has no defensive pairing which can truly slow the Winnipeg top line. There is an attack and be attacked type of look to this game and the Edmonton-Calgary game as well.
- Alex Wennberg, FLA ($3,500 DK/ $4,400 FD) - There are lots of risks with Wennberg because of his low shot volume. He rarely, if ever, tops two shots in a game despite playing top-six minutes ice-time-wise. That is just part and parcel of how it works when it comes to the Florida center. However, his passing ability and being selective with scoring chances could serve him well against a team like Detroit.
This is again a shorter slate, so the idea is to keep this simple. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at a player like Pius Suter as well because of his power-play value and price. Short slates give the player the ability to change things up and be a bit different. This may not work out but could pay off handsomely. Call it a risk-reward of the highest kind.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Alex DeBrincat, CHI ($7,800 DK / $6,900 FD) - It is too hard to not place DeBrincat somewhere in one's lineup especially if multiple or MME (mass multi-entry) is your specialty. Chicago's power-play unit is one of the best in the league and Carolina can be vulnerable at times. DeBrincat bounced back on Wednesday night with a goal on six shots. This gets people exposure to Patrick Kane typically and delivers savings as well. Second-tiered players like Dominik Kubalik or Phillip Kurashev are going to be worth a look because of their savings (in the 4000's) and versatility. Jonathan Huberdeau is a DraftKings only pick from Florida at $5,600 but he is $7,300 on FanDuel.
- Brock McGinn, CAR ($4,000 DK / $4,200 FD) - Some value can be found once again with McGinn as he has managed to stay on the top line in Carolina for longer than anyone has expected. The result has been seven goals and ten points in his last ten games. As long as he produces, McGinn will stay where he is at. The fact that his price has not gone up significantly is a bit of a surprise. However, take advantage of this fact before it gets too late.
Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Look at how much Blake Wheeler has dropped on DraftKings ($5,000) for example. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Tyson Barrie, EDM ($6,200 DK / $5,500 FD) - Barrie should be the highest-priced defenseman on this slate, and for good reason. His price raise finally happened as many had been wondering when it would. His floor has been excellent in this latest stretch and the chances created are high and garners enough ice time to at least sustain production within reason. He finds a way to get shot attempts on the net and Winnipeg's penalty kill has been awful. What is Barrie's specialty? The power play. Furthermore, he is on a man advantage with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Enough said. The Battle of Alberta means even more opportunity given that Calgary often leaves men open from the point.
- Brett Pesce, CAR ($4,300 DK / $4,000 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Pesce presents good balance with two shots and two blocked shots a game over his last nine contests. Add in seven assists and a goal in that span which gives one a little offensive upside to this value play. Remember, Chicago's defense on the road can resemble a choose your own ending adventure. If one wants to spend up to Dougie Hamilton, they can. However, Pesce saves a little money in salary to look higher elsewhere.
Look to Filip Hronek from Detroit against Florida. Also, Quinn Hughes is just below the top guys listed but his production has been more consistent in the past several contests. Sneaking in Evan Bouchard might be worth it from Edmonton as well. His price is at a value tier and he does have an above-average shot (SEE IF HE PLAYS). Expect a few more picks as we get some line matchups later in the day.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Chris Driedger, FLA ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD) - With the higher chance of a win, Driedger gets the nod here on Friday night. His run of play has allowed him to get a small run of starts here. He is in luck facing a Detroit team that is dead last in even-strength goals. Florida-Detroit games often feature a higher than normal shot volume. The shot load may be the only issue so if Driedger faces around 30 shots, good results seem likely. Driedger faces over 32 shots per 60 so there is hope.
Other goalies to consider: Hellebuyck, Lankinen, Markstrom
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- EDM 1
- McDavid/ Nugent-Hopkins/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, D-men add on)
- WPG 1
- Scheifele/ Connor/ Wheeler (Morrison, D-men add on)
- FLA PP 1
- Hornqvist/ Barkov/ Huberdeau (Ekblad, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: EDM 2, VAN 2, CAR 1, CHI PP 1, WPG 2, CGY 2
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
