Jon Anderson's First Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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One way to improve at drafting a fantasy baseball team is to shift your focus away from straight-ordered rankings and into tiered rankings. This helps you identify spots in the draft where you need to prioritize a certain position and times when you can wait. The difference between the #2 and #3 first baseman is often much different than the difference between the #3 and #4 - and it's important to know that.

In this series, we'll be generating tiers at each position, talking about each one in some detail, and identifying some spots in the draft where things are more or less urgent. The way I went about this was to use current projections for each player and then average out each player's percentile rank in each of the five standard rotisserie categories (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG). I then tiered these players off based on those numbers, but also with some of my own interventions. Because this is mainly based on current projections (and it's mid-February at the time of this writing), you may be surprised at where some of these names are showing up. The projections may sharpen up as we enter Spring Training, and the ADP changes quite often this early in draft season, but right now there are some guys being drafted wrong and you can take advantage of that by looking at things strictly from a statistical perspective.

Here's how I see the tiers. At the end of each write-up, I'll give you my favorite name from each tier. This is who I like the best at their current ADP.

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Tier 1

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Freddie Freeman	1	12.9	662	102	32	103	6	.294
Cody Bellinger	2	15.7	642	102	41	114	12	.280

There is not going to be much debate about tier one. Freeman and Bellinger stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field at a pretty weak position. There's a case for either guy going at number one. While Freeman has been the clear superior hitter over the last two seasons, Bellinger has the age advantage and also is eligible in the outfield.

Right away we have a bit of an "urgent" spot. After these two go off the board, you are settling for much less at first base. That could very well be a tiebreaker when choosing between these guys and similarly projected players at other position21s like third base, shortstop, or outfield.

Favorite: Bellinger (a little cheaper, more steals upside)

Tier 2

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
DJ LeMahieu	3	28.6	683	97	21	76	7	.292
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	56.1	619	91	29	95	3	.298
Jose Abreu	5	36.5	658	87	33	102	2	.270
Pete Alonso	6	58.1	649	95	42	105	2	.242

Tier two and we're already giving a lot up. All of these guys have some glaring issues in a 5x5 standard league. LeMahieu is well behind the pace in homers and RBI, Abreu has some age concerns, Vladdy just has not quite put it together for fantasy purposes despite his outrageous talent, and Alonso profiles as a batting average crater. There is a fair amount of safety here, each of these guys can be depended on to contribute in their strong categories, and they all have some pretty high upside, but there's no doubt you're not in the same ballpark as Freeman and Bellinger.

Favorite: Guerrero Jr.

Tier 3

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Luke Voit	7	61.7	615	86	31	87	1	.253
Anthony Rizzo	8	99.5	663	97	30	94	6	.269
Matt Olson	9	89.7	629	87	38	98	2	.241
Paul Goldschmidt	10	98.7	662	88	28	89	4	.263
Mike Moustakas	11	121.9	620	83	35	97	3	.249

It's not a huge step down from tier two honestly, with some much lower ADP. This is probably statistically the best value tier to end up in. You can obviously see a season playing out where Moustakas puts up a better season than Alonso, and you can have him 60 picks later. At this point, batting average and steals are basically gone at the first base position. There aren't any first basemen that can really threaten to be five-category contributors, and hoping to even find a four-category contributor here is probably wishful thinking.

This tier is nice for the ADP though. Besides Voit, all of these guys are coming in much cheaper than last year and they've all had pretty consistent careers. You can bank some power here with a pick over 90 and fill that first base spot. It's not exciting, but I think this is a good place to land if you miss out on the top tier.

Favorite: Rizzo

Tier 4

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Max Muncy	12	95.2	615	87	30	82	3	.232
Eric Hosmer	13	136.6	636	79	24	86	5	.258
Rhys Hoskins	14	168.2	590	87	31	85	3	.234
Miguel Sano	15	191.3	619	85	38	96	2	.230

At this point, you know you're giving something up. Muncy, Hoskins, and Sano are murder on your batting average. You are just playing for the counting stats that seep from that Dodgers offense by taking Muncy, and you're getting big homer numbers with Hoskins and Sano here. If your team already has a great batting average foundation, it may work nicely to fill your first base spot with one of these guys late in the draft, but this is uncomfortable territory for a starting player in a roto league.

Favorite: Sano

Tier 5

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Dominic Smith	16	106.2	552	68	22	74	3	.252
Ryan Mountcastle	17	149.7	578	70	26	82	3	.276
Josh Bell	18	164.7	583	81	28	89	2	.258
Trey Mancini	19	182.6	546	71	24	73	2	.262
Christian Walker	20	194.8	588	72	24	78	4	.247
Jeimer Candelario	21	246.2	628	77	22	78	4	.249

I'd say these are wing-and-a-prayer picks, but I don't really even see enough upside to call it that. Mountcastle and Smith offer some upside, I suppose, but I think that's a longshot bet for 2021. You can see the playing time concerns begin here as well, with much lower projected plate appearance totals than what we see above.

By this time in the draft, you should have your first base slot filled, so this is more of a backup or corner infield spot pick. The name I like most here is Christian Walker just because he seems to be pretty much the same player as the rest but has the lowest ADP. Candelario sneaked into this tier just because of the big plate appearance projection. While it's really not exciting to take a guy like Candelario that doesn't do anything exceptionally and is on a really bad offense, there is something to be said for the guaranteed plate appearances.

Favorite: Mancini

Tier 6

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Jake Cronenworth	22	173.25	422	49	8	46	8	.272
Jared Walsh	23	195.6	472	62	23	66	2	.247
Hunter Dozier	24	235.1	622	74	20	77	5	.245
Ryan McMahon	25	245.1	533	63	20	67	4	.249

These are the boom-or-bust picks for sure. There's almost no chance all four of these guys end up being fantasy-relevant, but they all have a fairly decent shot to really crush their value here. Cronenworth was pretty solid last year for the Padres but now has some playing time questions. Walsh was electric with the Angels last year, hitting nine homers in just 32 games with a .293 batting average, but there are playing time and repeatability questions with him.

This is all to say that these are lottery ticket guys who you really shouldn't make yourself count on too much.

Favorite: McMahon

Rundown

Tier one is so separated from the field that managers that draft Freeman and Bellinger will have a leg up on the field right away. It makes perfect sense to prioritize one of those guys with your second-round pick.
If you miss out on tier one, to me it makes sense to wait for the back half of tier three (Olson, Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Moustakas). All four of those guys aren't far away from the tier two guys at all in terms of expected production, and they are much, much cheaper. You are giving up the upside of a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bust-out season or the chance that Jose Abreu hits .300+ again this year, but I don't think either of those is likely enough to happen to warrant the price tag.
Tier four is a nice place to go if you are ahead in batting average but behind in power. Hoskins and Sano are elite sources of homers (and possibly RBI) and you can get them after pick 150.
Christian Walker, Trey Mancini, and Jared Walsh are my favorite late-round fliers at first base and could pay huge dividends if they can reach 600 plate appearances.

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