Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 17 (Updated)

January 2, 2021

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 17. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Happy New Year RotoBallers! As 2020 sends us staggering into a brand-new year on the calendar, the NFL regular-season comes to a close this week.

The NFL is ever-evolving week to week and that's especially the case in Week 17. Playoff implications and scenarios can be huge motivating factors for several teams, but can also push some squads to either rest starters completely or be willing to pull them from games early. It can all be a little confusing, though it does often make for an interesting and fun DFS slate. As I touch on players this week, I'll note any special scenarios for their team, though we'll obviously be targeting players that are expected to play in competitive environments.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 17. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 17 Picks

Lamar Jackson - BAL @ CIN ($8,000)

Baltimore’s playoff motivation is pretty simple: win and in. While there are some other scenarios that could play out and put the Ravens in with a loss, we know that they’ll be full go in this one. 

For the most part Lamar Jackson has underperformed this season, but he has kicked things up a notch over the past month. Baltimore has ripped off four wins in a row with Jackson averaging 29.2 DK Points per game since Week 13. We can attribute that output to his increased willingness to run the ball as of late (45 rushing attempts since Week 13) and can expect his ability on the ground to buoy his DFS floor in this matchup against the hapless Bengals in a game that Baltimore must win.

Ryan Tannehill - TEN @ HOU ($7,000)

Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill checks lots of boxes for us this week. Tannehill is a high-upside DFS play on any given week, but he has the benefit of both team motivation and positional matchup in Week 17. 

The Titans can clinch the AFC South title with a win or Indianapolis loss (the Titans & Colts both play afternoon games, so Tennessee will be playing all out) and - while it’s a longshot to happen - there are some scenarios where the Titans miss the playoffs altogether with a loss. So, long story short, Tennessee will be highly motivated in this game.

In addition to the motivation factor, Tannehill draws a beautiful matchup against a Texans Defense that’s struggled mightily throughout the year. Houston ranks 26th in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and 30th in yards per attempt (8.03) allowed to opposing QBs. Tanney torched this Texans unit to the tune of 366 yards and 4 TDs back in Week 6, and I look for him to once again light Houston up in the regular-season finale.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Lots of viable QB options this week...Deshaun Watson has been a dependable DFS producer and finds himself in a great matchup against the Titans. While the Texans have stated that Watson will be a full go, it's fair to wonder how long Houston will let their franchise QB play if this game gets out of hand. With Dalvin Cook out, Minnesota's Kirk Cousins deserves a long look at just $6.3k against a Lions Defense that can't stop anything. He's looked improved in cake matchups, but can Chicago's Mitch Trubisky get it done against a good Packers team at Lambeau field? His price tag puts him into consideration.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 17 Picks

Derrick Henry - TEN @ HOU ($9,400)

It doesn’t get much better than this...the Titans head into Sunday in need of a win to clinch the AFC South title and Derrick Henry will face the WORST run defense in the NFL. You don’t need me to tell you what type of player Henry is and he’ll square off against a Texans run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in basically every statistical category. Houston is the only team in the league that’s allowing over five yards per carry to opposing backs and Henry has already smashed them once this season...going for 212 yards and 2 TDs in Week 6. Yes, he’s expensive, but this is as close as we see to a “lock-button play” in NFL DFS. 

Jonathan Taylor - JAX @ PHI ($7,400)

A true smash spot here for the Colts rookie RB. After a sluggish start to his career, Taylor has exploded over the past month of the season and comes into the final game of the season averaging 23.7 DK Points per game over Indy’s last four. He has a tremendous chance to keep that positive momentum going against a Jacksonville unit that’s one of the worst in the league. The Jags have allowed the third-most DK Points in the NFL to opposing RBs and relinquished over 1,700 yards on the ground this season.

Unfortunately, this is one of the trickier situations of the week, as the Colts need a win and “help” to get into the playoffs. All of the teams that Indy needs to lose (one of Baltimore, Cleveland, or Miami) play at 1:00...so Indy will come into this late game knowing it’s fate. While I still expect the Colts to go full blast even if they are out of the playoffs by kickoff, we have to imagine the team’s spirits would take a huge hit in that scenario.

Malcolm Brown - ARI @ LAR ($4,300)

After an unforgivable loss to the New York Jets in Week 15, the Rams head into the regular season finale in need of a win to make the playoffs. Unfortunately for L.A., they have been hit hard with the injury bug, as both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson are dealing with high-ankle sprains and unlikely to play, which leaves the Rams' backfield to Malcolm Brown (who is dealing with a shoulder injury himself). As if the backfield situation isn't bad enough, L.A. will also be without QB Jared Goff due to an injured thumb, leaving John Wolford at the helm in his NFL debut. Leaning on the run will likely be the lesser of two evils here for the Rams, so we can expect Brown to get all the work he can handle at just $4.8k.

SATURDAY ADD:

Latavius Murray - NO @ CAR ($5,600) *MURRAY HAS NOW BEEN RULED OUT*

I'm adding New Orleans' Latavius Murray to my tagged RBs with Alvin Kamara now set to miss this matchup against the Panthers due to a positive COVID-19 test. Murray is one of the best backup RBs in the NFL and his $5.6k price tag basically puts him into "must play" territory. Kamara has played every game this season, but when he last missed action in Weeks 7 & 8 of last season, Murray produced 307 yards and 4 TDs over that two-week span. Even with Kamara in the lineup this year, Murray has managed to post some useable DK scores, including two games of over 20 DK Points.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

So much to dive into at the RB position on this slate...I've tagged Latavius Murray as a Saturday Add with Alvin Kamara now on the COVID List. Minnesota's Dalvin Cook will miss a matchup against Detroit due to his father's unexpected death, though DK has pre-emptively left Alexander Mattison priced up at $6.1k. Despite the "not too much of a discount" price, Mattison is in a great spot against a Lions run defense that's one of the worst in the NFL. Chicago's David Montgomery has experienced a true renaissance over the last five weeks - and his hot run started against the Pack in Week 12 - but his price is all the way up to $7.7k and it's not hard to imagine him becoming a victim of negative game script this week at Lambeau. Myles Gaskin looked extremely sharp in his return to the Dolphins lineup last week and gets a Bills team that might be pulling starters early. Jeff Wilson Jr. will once again be the workhorse for a constantly-banged-up Niners backfield. Wilson is coming off a monster game against the Cards last week, but gets a tough matchup against Seattle in the season finale. He broke my heart last week, but Melvin Gordon is once again in consideration against the Raiders with Philip Lindsay on IR. Jets RB Ty Johnson has looked explosive in limited opportunities this season and may well be the best value on the slate, as he'll lead a NY backfield that will be without both Frank Gore and La'Mical Perine against a Pats unit that ranks dead last in the NFL in run defense DVOA.

SUNDAY UPDATE: 

Week 17's are always frustrating, but even more so in the COVID era. Saints' RB Latavius Murray has now been ruled OUT along with Alvin Kamara and Dwayne Washington. If you're feelin' frisky, former Packer and Raven, Ty Montgomery, should get the bulk of the Saints backfield carries at just $4k...though we have to imagine Taysom Hill could also be utilized in goal line situations. Overall, the entire messy situation makes me want to lean on Saints pass catchers.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 17 Picks

Brandin Cooks - TEN @ HOU ($6,900) 

In the absence of Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks continues to be the true alpha of this Texans receiving corps. In his three starts since Fuller’s suspension, Cooks has been targeted a combined 25 times. We should expect him to stay busy this week against a Titans secondary that’s been pitiful to the tune of ranking 28th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass and 30th in pass defense DVOA. Cooks also constitutes a terrific stacking partner with Derrick Henry or Titans offensive pieces.

Emmanuel Sanders - NO @ CAR ($5,500) 

The Saints head into Sunday with an outside shot at a first-round bye, so we have to expect they’ll be a full go in the regular season finale. With both Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith on IR, Emmanuel Sanders will head up a depleted New Orleans receiving corps. Sanders has turned in almost identical performances in Thomas’ absence over the last two weeks, going 4/76/0 in Week 15 and 4/83/0 in Week 16 on 10 total targets. At just $5.5k, the veteran should be a solid DFS investment as he continues to look more comfortable in this offense each week and draws a winnable matchup against a Panthers pass defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL in DVOA. 

Richie James Jr. - IND @ PIT ($3,100)

One cool thing about Week 17 is that we often get a look at players that are really talented, but might be a step away from cracking a starting lineup. That’s the situation with San Fran’s Richie James this week, an explosive young player that the Niners grabbed in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL Draft. He’s been stuck on the fringes of this receiving corps rotation, but will be set free in this matchup against a leaky Seattle secondary thanks to the absence of both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. We’ve seen James take advantage of a similar opportunity this season when he smashed Green Bay for 184 yards and a TD on nine catches for the shorthanded Niners in Week 9. At just $100 over the DK minimum, James is a salary saver that can’t be ignored this week.  

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Devante Adams remains the WR that this slate revolves around and there's more than enough value available to get him in your lineups this week. The Minnesota passing attack sticks out against a horrid Lions defense and Dalvin Cook's absence increases the value of both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. While Tennessee's Derrick Henry will be very active this week, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis constitute verrrryy intriguing pivot options in GPPs. T.Y. Hilton still feels underpriced, as does the Dallas trio of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup with a suddenly-surging Cowboys passing attack. Keke Coutee has been a steady producer since Will Fuller's suspension. You could realistically play three WRs that are $5-5.1k and feel pretty darn good about your lineup...Marvin Jones Jr., Russell Gage, and Jamison Crowder. Looking for a cheap stack? Zach Pascal and Laviska Shenault are $4.2k and playing each other.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 17 Picks

Mark Andrews - BAL @ CIN ($5,800)

As we touched on with Lamar Jackson, this Ravens team will be playing to win against the downtrodden Bengals. Mark Andrews is an interesting stacking partner with Lamar Jackson or a fine one-off play at the always-tough TE position. Andrews is coming off a season-high 11 targets in last week's matchup against the Giants and we can expect him to be Jackson's favorite target again this week. Cincy has struggled against TE's this season and is one of only seven teams in the NFL allowing more than eight yards per target to the position.

Noah Fant - LV @ DEN ($4,400)

I'm always looking for cheap volume at the TE position and Denver's Noah Fant fits the bill this week. The second-year TE has been a favorite target for Drew Lock as of late, logging 20 total targets over the Broncos last two, with his DK price tag inexplicably decreasing by $400 after a nine-target outing against the Chargers in Week 16. Fant has converted those opportunities into 14 catches for 133 yards and a TD since Week 15. In the regular season finale he draws a matchup against a Raiders defense that fired their defensive coordinator earlier this year and stands 28th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

The TE position has been "Meh" all year and Week 17 is no different. Kelce will be rested. Waller is great, but can be inconsistent and feels overpriced. Kittle's intriguing, but tough to trust in this situation. Mike Gesicki makes sense at $4.2k, as does Minnesota's Irv Smith Jr. at $3.9k. My fun "Dart Throw of the Week" is Chargers TE Donald Parham Jr. at just $2.9k...he's a physical freak and XFL alum that will once again be filling in for Hunter Henry.

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