RADIO
NASCAR is back, and sports fans everywhere seemed to appreciate its return Sunday at Darlington Raceway. According to Fox News, Sunday’s broadcast of the Real Heroes 400 had an average of 6,323,000 viewers. That was an increase of 38 percent from the last race at Phoenix on March 8. It was the highest viewed non-Daytona 500 race since 2017. The audience remained consistent over the entire race, which was rare.
Naturally, many fantasy players who were starving for real significant action gave the sport a chance with an open mind and dove into Cup Series contests on DraftKings and FanDuel after having never or rarely played before. Fantasy participants on social media discussed their new experiences watching NASCAR, and reached out to established NASCAR DFS analysts for advice.
The excitement will continue on Wednesday at Darlington when we get an unprecedented consecutive event at the same track in midweek. Hopefully you are feeling good after cashing out on Sunday, but to keep the momentum going, here are some key points to absorb not only for the Toyota 500, but all races going forward. These are some helpful tips for newer players still getting used to DFS NASCAR, with other notable points for the experienced competitor.
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DFS NASCAR Advice For The Toyota 500 and Beyond
Be sure to also check out all of our weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel, including this DFS picks video by Chase and Drew.
Diversify Your DFS Lineups!
This is the most important point I must stress to all participants, especially the newer ones. So many players on social media talked about “entering their first lineup” or wanting tips for “a lineup.” It is simply a must to roll out multiple lineups for each race.
Wrecks and car troubles can end or damage an outlook for any driver at any time. Think of it akin to playing fantasy football, and the amount of injuries are ratcheted up considerably. If just one driver in your single lineup crashes, has to go to the garage, or is out of the race because of car issues, your DFS day is done. So you have to enter more than one lineup to stay competitive in DFS NASCAR.
If you are still getting used to DFS NASCAR, a minimum of three lineups is recommended. Make sure you utilize the RotoBaller Optimizer in our NASCAR Premium Season Pass to put the best lineups together. It also has options for more than just Cup Series races. Use promo code KING at checkout for an additional discount on the NASCAR Season Pass or our new DFS Bundle.
DFS Lineup Variations
When building multiple lineups, it’s a solid approach to vary the types of lineups you build. For instance, if I am building three lineups to begin with, I will have an ideal lineup, a front-loaded lineup, and a balanced lineup. The ideal lineup is simply the most optimal lineup I can build with my favorite drivers for the day.
I try to fit in my “ideal” six on DraftKings, as an example. The second lineup will contain the best two highest priced drivers I can fit into my lineup and then I will build around them as best I can. So on DK, I am expecting a big rebound week from Kyle Busch ($12,000) and for Denny Hamlin ($10,700) to push harder for a win.
I will start with those two and build around them. In this approach you just cannot fit in the two highest priced drivers. You take one of the top two and another driver two or three spots lower in pricing. Trying to fit the very top two drivers into a decent lineup will force you to weaken some other spots to the point where it just isn’t optimal.
The third lineup will not contain drivers at the very top of the pricing ladder, nor the very bottom of the board. It’s a more conservative approach that can be likened to participating in a fantasy baseball auction, but you stay out of the bidding for the top superstars and try to achieve more balance.
In my initial lineups, I try to also limit crossover between drivers. I will not have the same driver in three lineups, and no more than two. I will not have any lineups where more than two drivers will be identical. But as I indicated, this is just my first grouping of lineups. I will then enter a second grouping of three that is totally disassociated from the first group. And the optimizer, of course, will help me expand and diversify even more from that point.
DFS Lineup Balance
The most highly owned drivers, of course, will be the standouts who are lowest on the starting grid. Gaining as much as you can in the Place Differential category is an essential core tenet of DFS NASCAR success. On Wednesday, expect Jimmie Johnson ($9,100 DK, 10.000 FD) to have heavy ownership as he starts 37th.
William Byron starts 34th and is $8,900 on DK and $9,000 on DK. But don’t overdo it on starting drivers outside the Top 10. You also want to use drivers who start near the front and can push to lead laps or stay near the front of the pack.
So strongly consider Joey Logano ($9,400 DK, $12,200 FD), who starts third and should bounce back from a disappointing outing on Sunday. He has an Average Finish of 8.3 and three wins at intermediate tracks over the past two years. You don’t want to have all of your drivers starting deep in the field. Balance out your starting grid positions.
Track History and Momentum
The prime factors used to project outlooks for drivers are recent history at a track, and the latest overall trends and driver momentum. For Wednesday’s race, we have fresh data in both regards. The Cup Series is coming off a race at the same track in the same week. So many of the drivers who we saw contend last week should be viable picks for Wednesday night. Others with good past histories at Darlington will also be quality picks to perform better than they did on Sunday.
Sunday’s winner, Kevin Harvick ($11.600 DK, $13,200 FD) starts 20th and is a top option again at Darlington. He has an Average Finish of 3.0 at the site over the past two years, which is best among all active drivers. Harvick also leads all-time in Fastest Laps Run at the site (361). Kurt Busch ($8.700 DK, $9,400 FD) starts 18th, and his Average Finish of 5.3 is second among all drivers at Darlington over the past two years. He also has the second-most quality passes (passes of cars in the Top 15 under green flag conditions) all-time at the site (543).
Erik Jones ($8,500 DK, $9,800 FD) finished eighth Sunday and he starts 13th. He has the highest Driver Rating in the Cup Series at Darlington (107.1) and leads in Average Finish (5.5). His Average Running Position of 8.1 is second best. Hamlin ($12,500 FD) finished fifth Sunday and starts 16th. He leads in ARP (8.0) and is second in DR (106.6).
Picking bargain drivers will not be as easy this week because of the new and unique rules in which starting spots are determined. Several lesser drivers will start up front and you want to limit place differential negatives. Matt Kenseth ($7,600 DK, $7,200 FD) starts 11th and his 90.5 DR is in the Top 10. He has replaced Kyle Larson, who finished Top 3 in the same equipment in the two Darlington races prior to Sunday. Cole Custer ($6.600 DK, $6,800 FD) has an AF of 4.0 at Darlington in the Xfinity Series with a 2019 win at the site. He will start 22nd and should be able to either rise up a few spots or stay within the range of where he started.
More in-depth statistical information is available in the Research Station of the RotoBaller NASCAR Season Pass.
