Early 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings (Top 300): Tiers 1-4

It is the first week of February. Super Bowl LIII has just come to an end, which sadly means the NFL season is over. After eight months of mini-camps, training camps and a season full of big plays and big games, a champion has been crowned and for our purposes here a new fantasy season will start anew.

For those of you like us who feel fantasy football is a year-round activity, we are bringing to you our Never Too Early Player Rankings for 2019 redraft leagues. You may agree or disagree but don’t forget it is still very early and a number of things are going to change based on free agency and, of course, the NFL Draft.

These rankings are a fun way to look ahead to the next season and find out where players are likely to be taken in fantasy drafts with league mates who go worship ADP rather than making their own projections. We are going to take a look at these players broken down by tier (as always) and then discuss a few players in each group. Today, we'll start with the upper tiers. Be sure to also check out my analysis on Tiers 5-14 in part two of these rankings.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

Top 300 Redraft Rankings (February 2019)

Tier	Rank	Player Name	Pos	Nick	Pierre	Dom
1	1	Todd Gurley	RB	1	1	2
1	2	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	2	2	3
1	3	Saquon Barkley	RB	3	3	1
1	4	Christian McCaffrey	RB	4	4	4
1	5	Alvin Kamara	RB	6	5	5
1	6	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	5	6	10
1	7	Davante Adams	WR	8	8	6
1	8	Melvin Gordon	RB	7	10	7
2	9	Julio Jones	WR	9	7	11
2	10	Michael Thomas	WR	10	15	8
2	11	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	12	9	16
2	12	Le'Veon Bell	RB	16	11	19
2	13	Tyreek Hill	WR	14	13	20
2	14	David Johnson	RB	22	18	9
2	15	James Conner	RB	15	20	14
2	16	Nick Chubb	RB	11	21	18
2	17	Joe Mixon	RB	17	14	21
2	18	Antonio Brown	WR	13	12	30
2	19	Dalvin Cook	RB	24	16	17
3	20	Travis Kelce	TE	25	17	15
3	21	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	27	19	12
3	22	Zach Ertz	TE	26	22	13
3	23	Mike Evans	WR	18	26	24
3	24	A.J. Green	WR	20	23	25
3	25	Amari Cooper	WR	19	24	29
3	26	Aaron Jones	RB	21	29	23
3	27	George Kittle	TE	31	25	22
3	28	T.Y. Hilton	WR	23	30	26
3	29	Keenan Allen	WR	28	31	32
3	30	Brandin Cooks	WR	35	27	34
3	31	Marlon Mack	RB	37	28	40
3	32	Damien Williams	RB	41	37	27
3	33	Chris Carson	RB	33	42	31
4	34	Leonard Fournette	RB	32	33	42
4	35	Stefon Diggs	WR	39	35	33
4	36	Adam Thielen	WR	36	32	39
4	37	Robert Woods	WR	40	34	35
4	38	Sony Michel	RB	29	41	44
4	39	Kenny Golladay	WR	42	36	37
4	40	Patrick Mahomes	QB	30	50	45
4	41	Phillip Lindsay	RB	34	46	46
4	42	Allen Robinson	WR	50	39	38
4	43	Alshon Jeffery	WR	52	40	36
4	44	Aaron Rodgers	QB	45	57	28
4	45	Devonta Freeman	RB	38	45	57
4	46	Derrick Henry	RB	43	49	51
4	47	Kerryon Johnson	RB	48	44	52
4	48	Corey Davis	WR	44	47	55
4	49	Doug Baldwin	WR	53	55	41
4	50	Jarvis Landry	WR	60	52	43
5	51	Andrew Luck	QB	55	56	47
5	52	Tarik Cohen	RB	56	43	59
5	53	Calvin Ridley	WR	62	48	48
5	54	Cooper Kupp	WR	46	53	67
5	55	Julian Edelman	WR	57	54	58
5	56	Derrius Guice	RB	49	38	83
5	57	Deshaun Watson	QB	58	61	54
5	58	Tyler Lockett	WR	67	58	50
5	59	Jordan Howard	RB	59	60	61
5	60	Lamar Miller	RB	54	67	60
5	61	D.J. Moore	WR	73	59	49
5	62	Tyler Boyd	WR	77	51	64
5	63	Russell Wilson	QB	63	62	70
5	64	David Njoku	TE	80	65	53
5	65	Marvin Jones	WR	70	64	65
5	66	Mark Ingram	RB	68	66	66
5	67	Chris Godwin	WR	66	63	73
5	68	James White	RB	64	75	69
5	69	Sammy Watkins	WR	69	79	62
5	70	Drew Brees	QB	78	82	56
6	71	Jerick McKinnon	RB	47	81	89
6	72	Mike Williams	WR	79	78	74
6	73	Robby Anderson	WR	85	73	75
6	74	Evan Engram	TE	97	74	63
6	75	Matt Ryan	QB	83	84	68
6	76	LeSean McCoy	RB	72	90	76
6	77	Courtland Sutton	WR	87	72	79
6	78	Rob Gronkowski	TE	86	77	78
6	79	Hunter Henry	TE	76	71	94
6	80	Jameis Winston	QB	75	85	87
6	81	Sterling Shepard	WR	91	80	82
6	82	Tevin Coleman	RB	81	89	85
6	83	Dante Pettis	WR	88	86	81
6	84	Golden Tate	WR	94	76	86
6	85	Royce Freeman	RB	99	87	71
6	86	Cam Newton	QB	61	95	103
6	87	Kenyan Drake	RB	89	92	80
6	88	O.J. Howard	TE	71	70	121
6	89	Eric Ebron	TE	65	94	106
6	90	Jared Goff	QB	90	91	91
6	91	Kenneth Dixon	RB	102	97	84
7	92	Christian Kirk	WR	101	83	101
7	93	Will Fuller	WR	74	69	146
7	94	Curtis Samuel	WR	96	102	96
7	95	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	92	101	105
7	96	Rashaad Penny	RB	84	99	115
7	97	Jay Ajayi	RB	82	116	104
7	98	Anthony Miller	WR	106	98	99
7	99	Baker Mayfield	QB	98	93	114
7	100	Keke Coutee	WR	120	88	97
7	101	Elijah McGuire	RB	100	107	100
7	102	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	117	68	124
7	103	Matt Breida	RB	93	123	93
7	104	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	51	110	152
7	105	Robert Foster	WR	110	115	88
7	106	Philip Rivers	QB	116	104	95
7	107	Carson Wentz	QB	121	118	77
7	108	Jared Cook	TE	137	108	72
7	109	Michael Gallup	WR	112	96	109
7	110	Dede Westbrook	WR	105	121	102
7	111	Dak Prescott	QB	95	119	116
7	112	Gus Edwards	RB	123	103	110
8	113	Jack Doyle	TE	104	105	135
8	114	Jamison Crowder	WR	113	111	122
8	115	Adam Humphries	WR	107	137	107
8	116	Greg Olsen	TE	114	100	139
8	117	Mitch Trubisky	QB	115	127	117
8	118	Delanie Walker	TE	124	130	108
8	119	Trey Burton	TE	134	138	92
8	120	Marquise Goodwin	WR	103	149	113
8	121	Josh Adams	RB	127	122	119
8	122	Dion Lewis	RB	129	129	112
8	123	Tom Brady	QB	125	114	131
8	124	Geronimo Allison	WR	119	126	129
8	125	Kareem Hunt	RB	131	147	98
8	126	Lamar Jackson	QB	109	148	125
8	127	Rex Burkhead	RB	140	124	120
8	128	Kirk Cousins	QB	126	117	148
8	129	D'Onta Foreman	RB	136	125	130
8	130	John Ross	WR	132	133	128
8	131	Doug Martin	RB	122	131	142
8	132	Josh Allen	QB	144	136	118
9	133	Latavius Murray	RB	157	109	134
9	134	Quincy Enunwa	WR	149	141	111
9	135	Duke Johnson	RB	142	139	123
9	136	James Washington	WR	177	143	90
9	137	Austin Hooper	TE	165	120	127
9	138	Nyheim Hines	RB	146	145	126
9	139	Isaiah Crowell	RB	108	170	143
9	140	Chris Herndon IV	TE	150	140	133
9	141	John Brown	WR	138	153	137
9	142	Jimmy Graham	TE	133	146	150
9	143	Zay Jones	WR	171	106	155
9	144	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	135	158	140
9	145	Jordan Reed	TE	143	150	141
9	146	Kenny Stills	WR	158	134	145
9	147	Ronald Jones II	RB	118	175	144
9	148	Spencer Ware	RB	172	112	153
9	149	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	141	152	151
9	150	Jamaal Williams	RB	161	128	164
9	151	DeSean Jackson	WR	168	151	138
9	152	Antonio Callaway	WR	155	156	149
10	153	Peyton Barber	RB	139	155	167
10	154	Demaryius Thomas	WR	179	132	#N/A
10	155	Sam Darnold	QB	154	157	159
10	156	Tre'Quan Smith	WR	178	113	181
10	157	Tyler Eifert	TE	128	171	178
10	158	Taylor Gabriel	WR	148	168	161
10	159	Vance McDonald	TE	175	144	158
10	160	Andy Dalton	QB	145	165	168
10	161	Kyle Rudolph	TE	181	142	156
10	162	Chris Thompson	RB	183	167	132
10	163	Matthew Stafford	QB	166	163	154
10	164	Ito Smith	RB	147	178	160
10	165	Mohamed Sanu	WR	111	191	189
10	166	Daesean Hamilton	WR	174	159	165
10	167	Austin Ekeler	RB	160	177	162
10	168	Jaylen Samuels	RB	189	135	176
10	169	Albert Wilson	WR	167	160	177
10	170	Marcus Mariota	QB	170	172	163
10	171	Devante Parker	WR	152	193	166
10	172	C.J. Anderson	RB	164	176	171
11	173	Adrian Peterson	RB	169	181	169
11	174	Derek Carr	QB	176	161	184
11	175	Kalen Ballage	RB	184	164	174
11	176	Marqise Lee	WR	153	190	185
11	177	Bilal Powell	RB	151	180	197
11	178	Ted Ginn	WR	130	195	203
11	179	David Moore	WR	162	189	183
11	180	Equanimeous St. Brown	WR	196	154	187
11	181	Alex Collins	RB	223	174	147
11	182	Dallas Goedert	TE	202	166	180
11	183	Gerald Everett	TE	190	224	136
11	184	Devin Funchess	WR	192	188	172
11	185	Eli Manning	QB	185	184	186
11	186	T.J. Yeldon	RB	156	230	170
11	187	Carlos Hyde	RB	182	202	173
11	188	Cameron Brate	TE	173	205	179
11	189	Mike Gesicki	TE	204	162	192
11	190	Donte Moncrief	WR	188	185	188
11	191	Jalen Richard	RB	180	215	182
11	192	Nelson Agholor	WR	207	179	193
11	193	Josh Reynolds	WR	191	196	194
11	194	Paul Richardson	WR	187	201	196
11	195	Frank Gore	RB	159	206	220
11	196	Giovani Bernard	RB	205	209	175
11	197	Michael Crabtree	WR	201	198	191
11	198	Randall Cobb	WR	200	199	198
11	199	Tyrell Williams	WR	208	194	195
11	200	Josh Doctson	WR	195	204	199
11	201	Taywan Taylor	WR	193	217	190
11	202	Chase Edmonds	RB	214	183	208
11	203	D.J. Chark	WR	203	203	200
11	204	Nick Foles	QB	236	218	157
11	205	Mike Davis	RB	231	173	209
11	206	Blake Jarwin	TE	194	216	#N/A
11	207	Josh Rosen	QB	215	187	218
11	208	Hayden Hurst	TE	253	169	205
11	209	Jordy Nelson	WR	211	214	204
11	210	Justin Jackson	RB	227	186	221
12	211	Case Keenum	QB	213	211	211
12	212	Rashard Higgins	WR	199	212	225
12	213	Chris Hogan	WR	212	221	210
12	214	John Kelly	RB	197	223	223
12	215	Jeff Wilson	RB	242	182	227
12	216	Keelan Cole	WR	226	213	213
12	217	Zach Zenner	RB	163	#N/A	272
12	218	Ricky Seals-Jones	TE	221	226	207
12	219	Willie Snead	WR	216	227	214
12	220	Breshad Perriman	WR	210	197	250
12	221	Malcolm Brown	RB	233	222	202
12	222	Corey Clement	RB	220	232	206
12	223	Wendell Smallwood	RB	218	208	234
12	224	Chris Conley	WR	222	228	212
12	225	Mark Andrews	TE	254	192	216
12	226	Jake Butt	TE	198	234	235
12	227	Cole Beasley	WR	237	200	231
12	228	Jordan Wilkins	RB	234	225	215
12	229	Ryan Tannehill	QB	186	256	237
12	230	Ian Thomas	TE	256	207	219
12	231	Dez Bryant	WR	209	274	201
12	232	Rod Smith	RB	206	243	238
12	233	Pierre Garcon	WR	243	229	217
12	234	Ryan Grant	WR	232	238	228
12	235	Kendrick Bourne	WR	255	210	233
12	236	Alex Smith	QB	229	242	242
12	237	Nick Vannett	TE	228	262	224
12	238	Theo Riddick	RB	235	244	236
12	239	J'mon Moore	WR	224	261	230
12	240	Devontae Booker	RB	230	248	239
12	241	Will Dissly	TE	#N/A	240	#N/A
12	242	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	245	259	222
12	243	LeGarrette Blount	RB	219	250	257
13	244	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	244	257	226
13	245	Ty Montgomery	RB	270	220	246
13	246	Javorius Allen	RB	252	245	244
13	247	Jonnu Smith	TE	280	219	#N/A
13	248	Ameer Abdullah	RB	238	#N/A	262
13	249	Jakeem Grant	WR	250	#N/A	#N/A
13	250	Jacquizz Rodgers	RB	246	254	#N/A
13	251	Joe Flacco	QB	#N/A	236	267
13	252	Jeremy Hill	RB	#N/A	239	265
13	253	Detrez Newsome	RB	#N/A	252	#N/A
13	254	Luke Willson	TE	#N/A	265	240
13	255	Cameron Meredith	WR	#N/A	263	243
13	256	Chris Ivory	RB	249	251	259
13	257	Danny Amendola	WR	241	267	252
13	258	Charles Clay	TE	262	270	229
13	259	Wayne Gallman	RB	267	247	256
13	260	Rishard Matthews	WR	#N/A	266	251
13	261	Deon Cain	RB	271	260	249
13	262	Cordarrelle Patterson	WR	247	289	245
13	263	Trent Taylor	WR	257	275	253
13	264	Mark Walton	RB	298	246	241
13	265	Alfred Blue	RB	279	241	266
13	266	Blake Bortles	QB	#N/A	264	261
13	267	Jermaine Kearse	WR	274	269	247
13	268	Trenton Cannon	RB	289	233	269
13	269	Darren Sproles	RB	275	255	263
13	270	Corey Grant	RB	265	#N/A	264
13	271	Phillip Dorsett	WR	277	271	248
13	272	Allen Hurns	WR	278	#N/A	255
14	273	Laquon Treadwell	WR	281	#N/A	254
14	274	Marcus Murphy	RB	286	249	273
14	275	Jermaine Gresham	TE	#N/A	272	#N/A
14	276	Isaiah McKenzie	WR	272	#N/A	#N/A
14	277	Chester Rogers	WR	290	268	260
14	278	Luke Stocker	TE	#N/A	273	#N/A
14	279	Tyrod Taylor	QB	#N/A	278	270
14	280	Kyle Juszczyk	RB	273	279	#N/A
14	281	Tim Patrick	WR	276	#N/A	#N/A
14	282	Andre Roberts	WR	#N/A	276	#N/A
14	283	Torrey Smith	WR	#N/A	277	#N/A
14	284	Keith Kirkwood	WR	283	291	258
14	285	Dontrelle Inman	WR	259	300	#N/A
14	286	Marshawn Lynch	RB	#N/A	280	#N/A
14	287	Aldrick Robinson	WR	#N/A	281	#N/A
14	288	Teddy Bridgewater	QB	#N/A	282	#N/A
14	289	C.J. Uzomah	TE	282	#N/A	#N/A
14	290	Jarius Wright	WR	#N/A	283	#N/A
14	291	Russell Shepard	WR	#N/A	286	#N/A
14	292	Alfred Morris	RB	291	304	268
14	293	Deandre Washington	RB	294	285	#N/A
14	294	Travis Benjamin	WR	295	284	#N/A
14	295	Brice Butler	WR	288	292	#N/A
14	296	Tavon Austin	WR	#N/A	290	#N/A
14	297	Ryan Griffin	TE	287	296	#N/A
14	298	Trent Sherfield	WR	284	301	#N/A
14	299	Jaron Brown	WR	#N/A	293	#N/A
14	300	Jordan Matthews	WR	293	294	#N/A

 

Tier One - 2019 Rankings

Of the top three running backs in the rankings, Ezekiel Elliott has the greatest chance for a possible regression in 2019. The talent is not going to diminish, and he will be on the field barring injury, but he will have more surrounding him in Amari Cooper for a full season and the second season of Michael Gallup.

In his rookie season of 2016, Elliott had 32 receptions on 39 targets with a competent receiving group led by Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Last season, with a far lesser group of receiving options, it fell to him to be everything on the Cowboys offense. This led to 77 receptions on 95 targets - a number sure to fall again with Cooper, Gallup and a litany of tight end options including Blake Jarwin, who started coming on at the end of 2018. This means the 95 targets will not be needed and the Cowboys will return to using him as a runner first. He is still going to be a top-tier player and should be drafted as such but after only rushing for six touchdowns in 2018, he will need to be closer to his 2016 number of 15 to stay in the same range after his decrease in receptions and receiving yards is figured in.

What could be with Melvin Gordon... He is a true three-down back with the ability to run the ball or catch the ball. He is loved by Philip Rivers and he is super talented. He is also, at least as compared to the other top running backs, always injured and is good for a few missed games each season. Most frustrating to fantasy owners, these games always seem to come at the most unfortunate time. The Fantasy Playoffs.

885 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on 175 carries are not super elite numbers for a running back in the NFL. But, combined with his receiving numbers in which he caught 50 passes for 490 yards and four touchdowns, he becomes the elite running we are looking to build a fantasy team around. Again, the issue is he did all of this in only 12 games, which leaves you with a lot to figure out on those weeks where he sits down. If you are going to take Melvin Gordon as your first-round pick you had better load up on running back, as there will be weeks they will need to be used.

You can’t deny Nuk's ability and his connection with Deshaun Watson. What you can worry about is his surrounding cast on offense. Lamar Miller had a solid season in the backfield for the Texans, but he has been an overall disappointment in his time there. Will Fuller is a good downfield threat to counterbalance Hopkins, but he is never healthy and after a torn ACL, is not going to do much in 2019 to draw coverages away from Hopkins. Hopkins has become one of the best receivers in the NFL over the past two seasons, moving ahead of a player like Antonio Brown, who is getting older and crankier which makes him a safer pick when you are drafting your team for next season.

Coming off an incredible season of 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns, it is easy to see why Hopkins is ranked by many as the top wide receiver for next season. Even with the unknown surrounding the other receiver spots on the Texans, he is still going to feast on opposing corner backs as long as Miller and Foreman can provide a solid running threat to go along with the scrambling ability of Watson from the quarterback position.

 

Tier Two - 2019 Rankings

What a great season third-year receiver Michael Thomas had in 2018. I don’t know what the future will hold after the eventual retirement of Brees but for our purposes here, it doesn’t matter as he will be back for 2019 and this is all we care about.

In an All-Pro campaign, Thomas had 125 receptions for 1,402 yards and nine touchdowns, helping the Saints to a number one seed and a place in the Super Bowl. Oh wait, I forgot about that non-call...

In 2019, Thomas should again lead a high-powered offense which will again be near the top of the league. With a running game anchored by one of the best offensive lines in the league and Alvin Kamara and a Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees, all the tools are there for another monster season for Michael Thomas.

Whether you take Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams as the first receiver off the board, you won’t go wrong. But with the offense surrounding Thomas in New Orleans, he may have the highest ceiling in 2019.

Antonio Brown is still listed as a Steeler but in reality, who really knows where he'll be next year? The best receiver in the game for the last few seasons, AB has played himself out of the Pittsburgh locker room. Not with his on-field play, which is as high as ever with 104 reception, 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns, but instead with his off-field antics and his cancerous presence in the locker room. And this is on a team with Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell.

His talent is undeniable and no matter what team he ends up on he is going to remain an elite asset. What team he goes to matters quite a bit. If he ends up on the Patriots (God I hope not) or the Colts he will feast, maybe even more so than he has been. If he goes to a team like the Jets or the Jaguars though, he will be a border line WR1. Lucky for us, we should not be drafting until August when all of these matters have already been determined and we will have a good handle on things. Otherwise, I would be worried about drafting him at his current spot in drafts.

Le’Veon Bell, ah, the diva himself. Clearly a great running back. Or is he??? This is something we are going to find out this season as he signs a huge contract with a new team and tried to prove it was not just the Pittsburgh offensive line which made him look good. I mean, it is not like James Conner was able to have success in the lead back role with Bell missing this past season...

Much like with Antonio Brown, his value is going to depend on which team he ends up with in free agency. He will still be a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues, but whereas before this was his floor, now this may be his ceiling. Not only is he going to be going to a worse team with a lot of money to throw at him, but at 27, he is not getting any younger.

Bell is no longer a first-round pick but instead is someone you can take in the mid to late second- round at the earliest. If you are able to do it, try grabbing him in the second round after getting Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott in the first round. But if he is your first running back, I would immediately be concerned with my roster.

 

Tier Three - 2019 Rankings

You seemingly never know what you are going to get out of Evans on a yearly basis. You know he needs a ton of targets to be productive as his hands are not the best. You also know there is not going to be much, if any, running after the catch. Other than this it is a crap shoot. He has had seasons of double-digit touchdowns and he has had seasons with three touchdowns. We are all confused.

This year should be one of the boom seasons as he has a wide receiver-friendly coach in Bruce Arians coming in to take over for the mercifully-dismissed Dirk Koetter. 86 catches, 1,524 yards and eight touchdowns in 2018 with a mixture of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston shows the ability he has when given the targets needed. His 17.4 yards per catch average, which is almost a full two yards more than his career average, shows his ability to get down the field and out body smaller cornerbacks with his 6’5 231-pound frame. These factors will make for another good season in 2019 as the Bucs continue to struggle to find a run game with the likes of Ronald Jones Jr. and whomever they draft in the upcoming draft to compete for time. Arians loves pass-catching backs and this is not the forte of Jones, making the passing game even more likely to run through Evans and to a lesser extent Adam Humphries and Chris Godwin.

Evans is going to be a receiver drafted in the early third round who will have the potential to become a monster for your team as he and Winston grow together in the Arians offense. With more upside then similarly drafted players like A.J. Green or Stefon Diggs and with a higher floor, Evans is a great pick up in drafts this season, especially if you go running back heavy in the first two rounds.

There were flashes this season of what we can expect from Hilton when healthy. He had to deal with a groin injury for much of the season but when he was in the lineup, he showed us he still has a connection with Andrew Luck despite almost two years apart. In 2019, this connection is only going to grow, and Hilton will have a full offseason to recover. Plus, Andrew Luck is a year further removed from the six-week shoulder injury which cost him the entirety of the 2017 season.

When Luck is right, he is one of the top quarterbacks in the game today and with his health goes the performance of T.Y. Hilton who is much better with Luck than with any other quarterback. More so than possibly any other top receiver, Hilton is very quarterback-dependent, but this bodes well for his 2019 season after a 2018 season of 76 receptions for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games. Taking him in the third or maybe the fourth round would be a solid pick for those of you who started off with two running backs, or even as a second receiver after going Christian McCaffery and Mike Evans in the first two rounds.

The player who might just be the riskiest player in any of the top tiers, Damien Williams could have a top-five running back season. But he could also fall off a cliff and finish outside the top-50 at the position.

If the Chiefs go into next season with Williams as the full-time starter, he will be a top-10 running back for both draft position and draft rankings by analysts. These are lofty ambitions for sure, but in the Kansas City offense, they should be easily attainable.

If the Chiefs decide to draft a running back to split time with Williams, his value will diminish on an enormous scale making it a wasted draft pick. A pick you will have to make in the fourth round at the latest to get him on your fantasy team.

The good thing for us is that we will know about the draft results before we have to decide when to take him in our drafts. The other good sign for us is Andy Reid. Whether it was in Philadelphia with Duce Staley or LeSean McCoy, or in Kansas City with Jamal Charles or Kareem Hunt, Reid has always employed a one running back backfield, and this is not going to change anytime soon. If he wins the job, Williams will dominate like he did after Hunt's dismissal. If he is not going to be the full-time starter, you simply don’t draft him.

 

Tier Four - 2019 Rankings

Patrick Mahomes- Chiefs- Have we seen the start of the next great quarterback career? Quite possibly. 50 touchdown passes for only the third time in NFL history and what should be his first MVP award highlighted a season in which, although coming up just short of the Super Bowl, he still went toe to toe with the greatest of all time in Tom Brady. Including leading a Brady-like drive in the last 30 seconds of regulation to send the game to overtime giving the Chiefs at least a chance to win a game the defense let slip away in the second half.

Being the highest quarterback in the rankings, Mahomes is going to be taken in the second round in some drafts and maybe even the first round by someone who just has to have him. Not a proponent of drafting a quarterback early, this will not be me, but if he were to somehow drop to the fourth or fifth round, you have to really think about it.

We know quarterbacks score more points as a position than any other on the roster. But this means most quarterbacks will score more not just Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers but if you were to look at Mahomes compared to another player available in the fifth round, does it then make sense? I would wager at that point in time it does. I would rather take a chance on Patrick Mahomes over a receiver or running back at the same draft point and this should be a time to look for him as a value for you rather than a risky play. If you are dead set on taking a quarterback high, Mahomes should be your number one target.

Phillip Lindsay- Broncos- Not only may he not beat out Royce Freeman again next season, but Lindsay also has a wrist injury which could leave him gimpy to start next season in Denver.

Although the same was said before this season, it looks again like the Broncos want to try to use Freeman as the lead back in the coming season. If this happens, Phillip Lindsay will become this season’s version of Alex Collins for fantasy owners.

In a season no one expected in his rookie year. Lindsay rushed the ball a team-high 192 times for 1,037 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 35 passes for an additional 241 yards and one touchdown. At 24 years of age he is still young although old for a rookie and with his now injured wrist a worry he could and should slip a bit in fantasy drafts as his ceiling for 2019 is not a high as other backs and his floor is much lower with his impending time share upcoming and a whole new offense coming in with a new coaching staff.

Taking him in the realm of a Nick Chubb or Joe Mixon might be tempting to some, but it will lead to a lot of heartbreak if he does not return to form. Instead, he should be looked upon at the level of a player with a good ceiling but a high amount of risk in the realm of Marlon Mack or Jerick McKinnon.

Don’t be fooled into over drafting Lindsay based on one season in which all things lined up for him to succeed. These stars are not likely to align the same way again and instead of getting a great view of your competition, you may be stuck in a solar eclipse.

Talk about bolstering stats. Before his incredible last month of the season starting with his 230 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars, Derrick Henry used the rest of the season to move up from running back 40 to finish at #16 in what I would consider still a disappointing season for those of you who drafted him early.

If you did hold on to him long enough to have him when these games occurred, he was probably on your bench against the Jaguars and possibly against the Giants the following week figuring it would not happen two weeks in a row especially with the latter game being on the road.

215 rushes for 1,059 yards was a very nice 4.9 yards per carry average and if the Titans were smart, they would use him as the man next season and see if he can replicate these numbers as well as his 12 rushing touchdowns.

With Dion Lewis still under contract though, you need to follow the money, and this means, as much as we want them to release Henry from his team-imposed purgatory, it may not happen. Being a second-round draft pick, Henry is still cheap, and they will be able to control him for three more seasons before letting him test the market meaning this will most likely be a season of committee back work and more disappointments for owners who try to take him to high in drafts. Draft him yes, but draft carefully.

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