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Rick Lucks examines Joey Wendle and Chris Archer to see what they might be able to do for fantasy baseball rosters in 2018 and beyond.
Of all player profiles, Chris Archer's has to be the most bizarre. His raw stuff and strikeout totals suggest an ace, yet his ERA never seems to match up with metrics such as xFIP. Analysts like to say that he's consistently hit hard, but his career BABIP and HR/FB align almost perfectly with the league average. What is going on?
This column has tackled this question before, deciding that Brls/BBE is a useless stat for pitchers in the process. This time, we'll look at Statcast's xBA and xSLG metrics to see if they hold a clue to the enigma that is Chris Archer. First, however, we'll take a closer look at Archer's ex-teammate Joey Wendle to determine if what the 28-year old has done to date is remotely sustainable.
Let's get started, shall we?
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Joey Wendle (2B, TB) - 12% Owned
The proud owner of 118 big league PAs split between two seasons coming into 2018, Wendle has slashed .292/.340/.416 with six homers and eight steals over 389 PAs for the Rays this season. Statcast suggests that he can legitimately run (28.3 ft./sec Statcast Sprint), but his four CS (and 66% success rate) cap his SB potential.
Likewise, Wendle offers little in the way of raw power. His 31.7% FB% makes an aggressive power projection difficult, especially when combined with a low 6.7% HR/FB. His average airborne exit velocity (91.6mph) is roughly league average, while his rate of Brls/BBE (2.9%) is lower. He's pulling a solid 20.2% of his flies, but there isn't enough oomph behind them to expect more than ten homers or so in a given campaign.
Wendle's everyday playing time and .292 batting average would give him low-end fantasy appeal even with minimal power and speed, but Baseball Savant says that he's only deserved a .265 average. The discrepancy lies in his .351 BABIP, itself the result of a .305 mark on ground balls. Wendle's ground ball exit velocity is strong (88.1mph), but nobody sustains a ground ball BABIP above .280 for longer than a season or two. Regression seems likely over a full season.
His MiLB resume suggests that he won't maintain his batting average as well. Wendle made it to Double-A Akron (in the Cleveland organization) way back in 2014, slashing .253/.311/.414 with eight homers and four steals (two CS) over 370 PAs. He lifted plenty of baseballs (44.8% FB%), but failed to convert them into power production (6.3% HR/FB). The result was a depressed BABIP (.279) that doomed him to a mediocre batting average despite a solid 15.1% K%. To be fair, Akron is not the easiest place to hit a homer (0.863 HR factor from 2014-2016).
Wendle became Oakland property prior to the 2015 season, where he was assigned to Triple-A Nashville. His first Triple-A season was basically what you get if you prorate his MLB production this year: .289/.323/.442 with 10 HR and 12 SB (two CS) over 618 PAs. His FB% plummeted to 28.9%, which may have been a positive change since he didn't offer much power anyway (7.5% HR/FB). He rarely struck out (18.4% K%) or walked (3.6% BB%), instead milking his .343 BABIP for all that it was worth.
Wendle repeated the level in 2016, slashing .279/.324/.452 with 12 homers and 14 steals (four CS) over 526 PAs. His FB% (34.8%) and HR/FB (9.2%) both increased marginally, but still weren't high enough to force fantasy owners to take notice. Meanwhile, his K% spiked to 21.3% while his BB% (4.9%) remained low. Overall, it was more treading water than taking a step forward.
Wendle got a third try at Triple-A Nashville in 2017, slashing .285/.327/.429 with eight homers and 13 steals (four CS) in 510 PAs. His K% returned to a favorable 16.1% mark, but his minor power gains from the previous season also disappeared (28.5% FB%, 7.2% HR/FB). Nashville was an awful place for hitters in 2016 (0.784 runs factor, 0.633 HR factor, 0.888 hits factor), the only season for which data is available.
Wendle chases outside of the zone more often than he should (37.4% chase rate), but owns a strong 19.8% K% anyway thanks to an elite 90.9% Z-Contact%. Still, MLB hurlers might be able to exploit his aggressive approach moving forward. He also hits all over the lineup, making it tough to predict RBIs or runs scored. He's fine as a roster patch, but he shouldn't be Plan A for any fantasy roster.
Verdict: Chump
Chris Archer (SP, PIT) - 92% Owned
The always perplexing Archer is back to his old tricks, disappointing owners with a 4.49 ERA despite a 3.69 xFIP. You have to think that the Pirates saw something they thought they could fix, but he has a 5.65 ERA while averaging less than five innings per start over three appearances for his new team.
Archer's K% is down to 24.5% from 29.2% last year, a decline with no obvious cause. He hasn't substantially changed his pitch mix, and all three of his principle offerings are performing as expected. First, his fastball averages a hair above 95mph but lacks spin (2,208 RPM), allowing hitters to slash .304/.397/.511 against it on the season. Its 6.2% SwStr% is also on the low side considering the velocity Archer has to work with.
Archer's best pitch is his slider, but it has a weakness. On the bright side, it's a diabolical strikeout pitch (19.4% SwStr%, 42.6% chase rate) that Archer can throw for a strike if he wants to (45.2% Zone% this season). However, Archer hangs it on occasion. Batters have seven long balls off of his slider this year and 51 over his career, preventing it from attaining the unhittable status you might otherwise expect from its strikeout totals.
Archer historically hasn't had a third pitch, but his change has looked good this year (18.1% SwStr%, 42.1% chase, 44.4% Zone%). Unfortunately, its career marks are pedestrian (13.4% SwStr%, 33.1% chase) and there is no spin rate increase to support this year's uptick in production (1,743 RPM vs. 1,766 RPM in 2017). The fact that he's had a second strikeout pitch while his K% is in free fall just adds to the mystery here.
Archer's biggest problem this season has been an inflated .347 BABIP (.301 career), a problem that may be tied to the defenders behind him. Tampa typically plays elite defense, but their outfield only has -1 Out Above Average this season (17th of the 30 big league clubs). The Pirates have 16 OAA this year, good for fourth in the league. Archer's BABIP on fly balls (.176 vs. .111 career) and line drives (.747 vs. .662 career) both suggest that he could use better defensive outfielders, so maybe the trade will help.
That said, Archer has largely deserved his misfortune. His .274 batting average against is his highest since 2015 (.246 in 2017, .238 in '16, .220 in '15), as is his .265 xBA (.231, .228, .223 the past three seasons). Slugging percentage tells the same story, as his .425 mark in 2018 is higher than 2017 (.407), 2016 (.403), and 2015 (.331). His xSLG (.455) is worse than his actual mark and much worse than his previous xSLG marks (.389, .405, .349).
Archer wasn't hit that hard prior to 2018, yet his peripherals have consistently been better than his bottom line numbers. At this point, fantasy owners need to conclude that Archer is good for a few Ks at the cost of a virtual squad's ERA without completely understanding why. The Pirates are likely to rue the day they gave up three controllable first rounders for him, as are fantasy owners who acquire him as anything more than an SP4.
Verdict: Chump
