RADIO
Adam Hall explains why Joe Mixon, not Jordan Howard, will be the fantasy running back to own this season given current ADP. Player trajectories based on team additions and previous performance is scrutinized, a stark difference is found between the two players.
Fantasy football draft season is upon us and RotoBaller is here to help! In this series, we will discuss the merits of two players with similar value and average draft position (ADP). Remember that situations will change for all players over the course of the summer and it may impact where they are selected in drafts.
This article comes from staff writer Adam Hall, who compares running backs that are being taken in the first couple rounds of fantasy drafts.
Joe Mixon had a lackluster rookie season but promises to have a big role in his sophomore season while Jordan Howard might benefit from a new coaching staff and increased role in the passing game. Who will deliver a better return on investment in 2018?
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A Question that Champions Answer
First-round picks are crucial to success, but your second and third round picks are where champions are made. Every year, players drastically outperform their ADP and lead to fantasy championships. Just last year, Todd Gurley and DeAndre Hopkins were hanging out near the end of the second round. One huge question circulating in the fantasy community that could have a similar impact this year is who you should take at the second to third-round turn, Joe Mixon (ADP 24), or Jordan Howard (ADP 25). I’m here today to state definitively that in 2018 the answer is Joe Mixon.
Jordan Howard paints a misleading picture
Jordan Howard burst onto the fantasy scene in 2016 with over 1600 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. Howard followed up his breakout season with another solid outing with over 1200 yards from scrimmage with nine total touchdowns. If you were to simply look at his overall performance, you would be convinced that Jordan Howard will be a viable RB1 for years to come. Though, when we look closer a different picture is painted; one of inconsistency and a degraded role on the team.
In 2017, Howard’s role as a three-down back was undercut with the emergence of offensive weapon, Tarik Cohen. Howard’s targets dropped from 50 to 39, and his efficiency dropped with it. Howard amassed a legitimate 10.29 yards per reception (YPR) in 2016, versus a paltry 5.43 YPR in 2017. Jordan Howard led all RBs in percentage of dropped passes for the second year in a row with nearly 13%, which was one percent better than his 2016 drop rate. This poor performance occurred after reports last year stated that Howard underwent the LASIK procedure to improve his eyesight and with it his receiving ability. Unfortunately, Howard’s hands didn’t improve as much as once hoped.
The bad news doesn’t end with his receiving ability. Howard’s yard per carry average (YPC) dropped from a top of the line 5.21 in 2016, to a mediocre 4.07 in 2017. The mark of four yards per carry in the NFL still signifies success going forward, but when we look deeper the picture is more distressing. In 11 of 16 games last year, Howard failed to amass a YPC above 4.0; Howard was effectively nullified while running behind one of the best run blocking units in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, a premier player grading organization. Perhaps worst of all, during the last half of the fantasy season Howard only produced RB1 numbers three times, and when he didn’t produce RB1 numbers, he was completely irrelevant, tanking your team with him. When consistency is the hallmark of a RB1 in fantasy, Howard showed last year that he didn’t live up to expectations.
Finally, Howard’s situation hasn’t improved as much as people would think. With additions of Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, and Taylor Gabriel, it’s clear that the passing game will improve substantially. Due to these changes, we can assume that Howard will face fewer stacked boxes than he did in 2017 where he faced the seventh highest percentage of all RBs. This is great news for Howard going forward, along with Matt Nagy claiming that Howard can be a three-down back going forward. If there is any sign of optimism for Howard in 2018 it’s these changes. I for one question the legitimacy of Nagy's statement. The workload a three-down back commands would effectively silence Cohen due to many of targets slated for the scat back instead going to a player that has shown to have unreliable hands at best. It would make sense from an efficiency standpoint if the Bears utilized the two in a fashion similar to 2017.
Unfortunately, the Bears lost their best offensive lineman in the off-season. Josh Sitton has moved on, and the Bears lose his league-best run blocking with it. Currently, James Daniels is slated to start in Sitton’s place, but it’s unrealistic for the Bears to expect Pro Bowl-level production from a rookie. Since Howard’s production is primarily based on his rushing ability, this is a serious blow to Howard’s production in 2018.
Overall, there is a bit to be optimistic about for Jordan Howard this year, but overall anyone should pause and think otherwise before spending a premium pick on him this year, as he is unlikely to be this year's version of Todd Gurley.
Mixon is pointed in the right direction
Joe Mixon found himself in an extremely difficult situation in 2017, initially stuck on a time split with Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill, his opportunities were limited. During the latter half of the season, his opportunities grew, and his production matched the workload. During the last six games of the year, Mixon averaged nearly 4.3 YPC and was a focal point of the offense. Mixon also displayed impressive hands, only dropping three balls and catching over 88% of passes thrown his way.
It seems that this catch was not an aberration for Mixon:
Mixon achieved this with a bottom-five ranked offensive line according to PFF, the Bengals’ offensive line was ninth-worst in the NFL in the yards before contact metric, netting the running backs only 1.31 yards before contact. Thankfully, the Bengals’ front office recognized this as the biggest point of weakness on the team and invested heavily to remedy the hole in the offense. Cordy Glenn was acquired, and Billy Price was drafted in the first round. Cordy Glenn was a reliable, above-average left tackle for the Bills over the past few seasons, and previous starter, Cedric Ogbuehi was ranked as the 43rd best tackle in the NFL according to Bleacher Report, if Glenn comes back from injury and can maintain 75% of his production, he’ll be an enormous upgrade. Usually, the addition of a rookie to an offensive line is cause for concern, but Russell Bodine was ranked as the 35th best center in the NFL according to Bleacher Report. Once again, if Billy Price can provide even below average production, the offensive line will be better. Finally, the Bengals’ added former Cowboys’ offensive line coach Frank Pollack to the coaching staff, Pollack was the Cowboys' offensive line coach during the golden years of 2014 to 2017. If anyone can get the most out of this underperforming unit, it's Pollack. With these additions, it is highly likely that the Bengals’ offensive line will be markedly better in 2018.
Beyond a heavy investment in the offensive line, Tyler Eifert is available, and John Ross is expected to contribute heavily with the departure of Brandon LaFell. The last time Andy Dalton had this kind of team around him, he was a QB1, and his entire offense was viable in fantasy.
More good news came for Mixon after Bengals player personnel director Duke Tobin claimed that Mixon will be used as a bell-cow in 2018. This does play into the narrative that Marvin Lewis utilizes his players far more in their sophomore years. Mixon has also slimmed down ten pounds, a trend that is often seen before breakout seasons from players.
Additions at the offensive line can be nullified if the schedule a team plays is occupied with the best defenses in the league. Thankfully, the Bengals won’t have to worry about that this year as they have the easiest strength of schedule for running backs in 2018 according to PFF’s Jeff Ratcliffe. These matchups stand in stark difference to the slated contests for the Bears who have the third-hardest schedule in the league this year. An easy strength of schedule lets players show what they can do without having to deal with players that are more than capable of limiting any potential upside.
The choice is clear, Mixon can win you a league!
When choosing between Jordan Howard and Joe Mixon, especially in PPR formats, the choice should now be clear. Mixon doesn’t only have an easier path to success, but everything is lining up for him to showcase his talents. Jordan Howard can act as a RB2 who will often provide intermittent production, but he will likely leave you wanting this season. Joe Mixon was often compared to Le’Veon Bell while in the pre-draft process, and if he can achieve a majority of that mirror, he can help you win your league.
