This is, to my knowledge, the first horse racing article on Rotoballer so history has been made! But will it be made on Saturday?

Justify will be gunning for the Triple Crown at the 150th Belmont Stakes. Winning the Triple Crown is one of the rarest feats in all of sports. Not only will he have to earn it against stiff competition, but he'll also have to overcome the grueling mile-and-a-half distance. It's the longest race any of these 10 horses will ever run in.

If you're new to horse racing and just looking to make a quick buck, don't worry. This article will not go in-depth, but will simplify what you should do to maximize your dollar Saturday.

 

Before we get to the field, it may rain Saturday at Belmont. If it rains, it would be a sloppy Triple Crown. Every single race would have been run in the slop, which would benefit Justify who seems to like running in the mud.

Former baseball player and horse racing handicapper, Paul Lo Duca mentioned a very important fact; "Only two of the last 16 Belmonts have been won by a horse exiting the Preakness: American Pharoah and Afleet Alex. And in the last four years, save for American Pharoah (who didn’t play by other rules), there has not been one horse exiting the Preakness to even crack the exacta (first or second) in the Belmont."

That would apply to Justify, Bravazo, and Tenfold. Now let's breakdown the complete field.

 

The Field

1. Justify (4-5) 

Trainer: Bob Baffert | Jockey: Mike Smith

He drew the worst possible post. Horses starting at the rail sometimes get swallowed up and boxed-in with nowhere to go. In Justify’s case, he loves getting to the lead and running from the front. In both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, he started at the seven-post and easily got to the lead after a good break. Even if he broke poorly, there would have been more room to move around on the outside. If Justify breaks well from the gate and gets to the lead, he will be in a great position to win the race. But if not, he’s in trouble.

His trainer Bob Baffert said, “I never do like to draw the rail. “You can have a great hole, but if you don’t leave there, you’re still going to be in trouble.”

Dale Romans, who is the trainer of Free Drop Billy said,  “In a mile and a half race, if you’re worried about the post you shouldn’t be in the race."

So if Justify breaks well and is out in front coming around the clubhouse turn, another horse will need to push him or else he will cruise to a moderate pace. However, it will all come down to the brutally long 1,097 yard stretch run. The stretch is where the horse gunning for the Triple Crown gets caught. They tire out and don't have enough legs to reach the finish line. Racing three times in five weeks at long distances, which horses will never do again, catches up to them in the last furlong. Think Smarty Jones, or California Chrome, among the many near-misses until American Pharoah, trained by Baffert, broke the 37-year drought three years ago.

Jusitfy was almost caught in the Preakness and if they were going the Belmont distance, he surely would have lost. His speed figures have continued to drop in each of the last races which shows signs he's getting tired.  But he's been training exceptionally and his jockey said he didn't fully unleash Justify in the Preakness, which I don't fully believe because Justify was almost caught there.

 

2. Free Drop Billy (30-1) 

Trainer: Dale Romans | Jockey: Robby Albarado 

After winning his first two races, he's 0-5 since and a disappointing 16-place finish at the Derby. Pass.

 

3. Bravazo (8-1) 

Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas | Jockey: Luis Saez 

If the Preakness were 100 yards longer, he would have beaten Justify. He won his maiden race, lost his next three, won the Risen Star, then lost his next two. To follow the cycle, he shouldn't win. This will be his third race in five weeks. He’s going to be tired. You may want to throw him in your superfecta, but otherwise, pass.

 

4. Hofburg (9-2) 

Trainer: Bill Mott | Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. 

The seventh-place finisher at the Derby is going to be the second-most popular play, partly because three of the last four Belmont winners have been sired by Tapit (Hofburg is sired by Tapit). But the public is never right. I was listening to the great Ron Flatter racing podcast with Maggie Wolfendale two weeks ago and they previewed this race. Wolfendale, a paddock analyst for NYRA, said Hofburg ix a horse that will come of age later in the summer. He'll be at his finest when Saratoga rolls around in August. She doesn't see him as a threat.

 

5. Restoring Hope (30-1) 

Trainer: Bob Baffert | Jockey: Florent Geroux

This is another Baffert horse and he doesn't have a chance whatsoever. It's interesting Baffert would put another horse in this race when his main attraction could win the Triple Crown so why put another competitor in the field? Is is for Restoring Hope to be the rabbit horse and push the pace to ease Justify in? Who knows but he has zero chance. Pass.

 

6. Gronkowsi (12-1) 

Trainer: Chad Brown | Jockey: Jose Ortiz

This will be a race of firsts for Gronk. First time on dirt and racing in America (he's is from Great Britain.) He'll be at his lowest weight for this one. He'll attract a ton of money because of his name. But I don't see him as a threat.

 

7. Tenfold (12-1) 

Trainer: Steve Asmussen | Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr. 

He began his racing career nine days before Justify did on February 18. His speed and pace figures keep improving and some of the sharps are picking him. If he stays right off the pace, he has a good chance to run down Justify in the stretch.

 

8. Vino Rosso (8-1) 

Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: John Velazquez

This horse is from New York and trains at Belmont. He has the best chance to beat Justify. He's a mid-closer who will probably stay close off the pace. You don't want a horse that has to make up so much ground in a race that is already so long. His trainer has won two of the last five Belmont's. He's 3-for-5 in his career including his most memorable win at the Wood Memorial. He got a bad trip in the Derby finishing ninth, but skipped the Preakness so he is well-rested.

 

9. Noble Indy (30-1) 

Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Javier Castelanno 

In addition to winning his first two races, he also won the Louisiana Derby. However, his 17th-place finish at the Derby accounts for these long odds. Pletcher said he would take the blinkers off so Noble Indy can see the everything around him. Like I said with Vinno Rosso above, Pletcher knows what he's doing.

10. Blended Citizen (15-1) 

Trainer: Doug O'Neill | Jockey: Kyle Frey

He's a very experienced horse who's won two of his last three, the most recent being the Peter Pan at Belmont. This will be his first Triple Crown race so he'll be extremely fresh. Use him in your exotics.

 

What to Bet

I expect Justify to go off at 3-5. That's the 60 cents on the dollar. That means, if you bet $1 on him to win, and he does, that's horrendous value. If you're looking to hit it big, you have to try and beat him.

American Pharoah went off at 3-5 paying 3.50 to win. A $2 exacta paid $13.60, the trifecta paid $109.50, and superfecta was $570 (superfectas are usually in the thousands). It eclipsed $500 because a 20-1 shot finished third and a 10-1 shot finished fourth. You need a longshot in there.

Here's what I'll be playing.

Vino Rosso across the board (win, place, and show)

Exacta box (the first two finishers in either order): Justify and Vino Rosso.

IIf Justify does win, I don't want to lose everything like I did when American Pharoah won the Triple Crown. I put him in second and third in all my exactas and trifectas. If Vino Rosso beats Justify at the wire, the exacta would be nice. If Justify holds off Vino Rosso, for a $2 bet, it would payout around $10, not great.

Trifecta (first three finishers): All over Justify 0ver all. 

I believe Justify will be caught down the stretch and finish second. This way, all Justify has to do is finish second and I win big.

If you think he'll finish third, then put him in the third spot and the payout would be enormous.

Those are my top two plays.

 

Good luck!