RADIO
Welcome Rotoballers. Week 8 is on the way, and with it we're one step closer to completing our second month of the season. By now, we're starting to accrue enough data that advanced statistics become more usable for analysis. This is an exciting time when we learn who's gains in contact percentage and ISO are real, and who is just a mirage. We don't deal in mirages at Rotoballer, we see through the distractions. Only quality players bring fantasy glory.
And because we're looking for glory, the training wheels are off. No longer is 50% ownership the threshold for consideration. From now on, we're operating at a minuscule 35%. That means more obscure sleepers, more unfamiliar names, and more opportunities to learn about players you would've never thought could help your team to the trophy.
And remember, ballers don't wait. Ballers make moves. Money moves in fact, hat tip to Cardi B. Ballers don't care about the name on the back of the jersey. Ballers only care about the numbers next to the name. Let your competition go out of their way to acquire last year's studs. You're a baller, and you're too busy getting W's with guys your leaguemates have never heard of. Here are your week 8 outfield waiver wire targets.
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Week 8 Outfield Waiver Wire Targets
Travis Jankowski (OF, SD) - 26% owned
San Diego Padre Travis Jankowski is not, nor ever will be, a superstar. He is not going to take at-bats from the supremely athletic Manuel Margot, the multi-talented Wil Myers, or super-name Franchy Cordero. He brings no power, evidenced by his five home runs in 634 at-bats. And despite a career .341 BABIP, Jankowski still has only managed a .247 average. He strikes out a bit too much, takes walks at a rate of “just ok” and is a passable defender. That profile is a bench bat, no question. What Travis Jankowski does do well, and what makes him extremely helpful to fantasy teams, is run.
After 2016, the outfielder became an extremely trendy sleeper thanks entirely to his racking up 30 steals on 383 at-bats and possessed a speedy, slap hit profile that could take advantage of the difficult hitting conditions of Petco Park. The idea was that he would be an ideal place setter for the high-profile prospects like Margot and Hunter Renfroe in the middle of the lineup. But 2017 showed up, and Jankowski proceeded to destroy all the bold calls made on his behalf.
Fast forward to today, and Jankowski is running wild once more. The 26-year-old has collected seven steals without being caught once, five of them in the past week. He’s also managed to raise his walk rate and lower his strikeout rate by meaningful metrics. He currently is running out a 0.75 BB/K rate on the season, far better than the career 0.39 mark. Jankowski’s .390 batting average is buoyed by a wholly unsustainable .478 BABIP, but let’s be honest you’re not looking for a BA super star. The draw here is speed, and Jankowski is laying claim to the title of 2018’s Rajai Davis. Wait, Rajai Davis is still playing?! Well, point still stands.
Niko Goodrum (OF/1B, DET) - 17% owned
If you’ve never heard of Niko Goodrum, you’re not alone. After an uninspiring run in the Twins’ minor-league system, the 26-year-old signed a minor-league deal with Detroit. Surprisingly, the “minor-league” part of that deal has yet to be exercised, as Goodrum has spent every game with the Tigers’ big-league club. Even more surprisingly, Goodrum has been quietly effective.
Over the season, the outfielder and corner infielder has produced a .265/.330/.494 line over 91 plate appearances with four home runs and five steals. He strikes out too much at 27.5% of at-bats, but that is still impressive considering that no one expected anything of substance. It’s tough to tell if he’s picked up any new skills from a season ago when he produced just 13 homers in 499 plate appearances at Triple-A Rochester, but the fact of the matter is that Niko Goodrum looks like a major league ballplayer.
Goodrum has shown surprising pop, throwing down a .229 thus far in 2018, and this past week has been something of a coming out party. The .429/.455/.905 on 22 plate appearances is obviously great, but Goodrum put up three home runs, seven runs batted in, with a steal, and just three strikeouts. That is one of the better weeks in baseball, and in case you haven’t noticed the Detroit Tigers are not good. Fantasy sports success is all about marrying skills with opportunity. You could own the most talented player in baseball, but if he’s blocked by a Hall-of-Famer and isn’t getting playing time, then he’s not useful for fantasy. Goodrum will never be confused with a top player or even a fringe All-Star. What he is getting, and what many of the players featured in this column are getting, is playing time. And because Goodrum is getting playing time and is producing with that opportunity, there’s no reason that he shouldn’t be owned in deep leagues.
Brian Anderson (OF/3B, MIA) - 10% owned
Coming into 2018, Brian Anderson was considered a top prospect of the Miami Marlins system. However, this was really only true due to the lack of talent in the organization as opposed to Anderson’s skill level. Nothing against the former 3rd round pick, but the tools suggest a fringe to average regular and not much more. Anderson has some good raw strength, but struggles to get to it in games due to average bat-to-ball skills.
Over the last week, Anderson hit .360/.360/.360, which is impressive for its pure symmetry. Aside from the perfectly round batting line, Anderson’s week was largely empty, with just three runs, two runs batted in, and no home run, steals, or even walks over his 25 at-bats. The week brought his season line to .276/.356/.382 with two home runs and two steals, which is perfectly fine. In a week Miami lineup, Anderson will continue to get run, and that’s really where he gets his immediately fantasy value. A guy needs playing time to produce, and with no chance to contend the Marlins will run out not-so-seasoned youngsters in hopes of raising their value. Despite being owned in 10% of leagues, fantasy owners can probably find more immediate value even lower on the ownership list. His youth and top prospect status keeps his ownership levels at a reasonable level, but he’s not much more than an emergency fill-in at this point.
But there’s another level of analysis in relation to Anderson, as dynasty leaguers should treat him very differently. As you may have read in the last couple of years, there’s a bit of a revolution surrounding hitters attempting to generate more power by pushing the launch angle to the extreme. T He also his in turn produces more fly balls, which leads to more home runs. The poster boy for this movement is Indians first baseman Yonder Alonso, who exploded for 28 home runs last season after never producing more than nine. Alonso turned his swing into essentially an uppercut from Mortal Kombat, leading to a huge jump in ISO, slugging, and allowing him to get to the power that his frame already possessed. His groundballs on contact rate plummeted from 49.2% in 2015 to 33.9% in 2017.
So, what does all this have to do with a barely above replacement level Miami Marlin? Brian Anderson possesses all of the ingredients for a breakout due to a swing change. He has above average raw power, which is clear if you watch him take batting practice, but has produced groundballs on a whopping 50.3% of contact and flyballs on just 26.2% in his short major league career. This is in stark contrast to the fact that Anderson makes hard contact 39.2% of the time and produces above average velocity off of the bat. If the 25-year-old produces more lift with his swing, 20 to 25 home runs with good plate discipline and a .270 average is within range. This is a lot of projection, sure, but that has tremendous value in deep league and dynasty formats. Anderson may make the perfect buy low or throw-in that could swing a deal.
Johnny Field (OF, TB) - 0% owned
We don’t give up here on Rotoballer, and I’m not giving up on Johnny Field. Mr. Create-A-Player got back on the horse this week, hitting .350/.381/.500 on 20 at-bats with a home run, four runs, and three more runs batted in. The week’s output brings his season line to .295/.338/.492 with a solid .197 ISO power. Field continues to play like an above average hitter who is looking for opportunities. I don’t care that I wouldn’t be able to pick him out of a two man lineup, or that I’m not 100% percent sure he’s a real person, Johnny Field is a good ballplayer that will eventually get enough run in the Rays outfield to matter in 2018. Furthermore, I love him and the Rotoballer staff is adopting him. Pictures and updates are forthcoming.
More Waiver Wire Pickups and Streamers
