RADIO
Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of early season heroes Dansby Swanson and Kurt Suzuki to determine whether they will continue to help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.
Baseball Savant has added an "Expected Stats" tab to its Statcast Leaderboard, making it easier than ever before to look up a given player's xBA (Expected Batting Average), xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage), and xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average). These metrics use launch angle and exit velocity to predict how a given player should be doing without regards to actual results.
These stats have their uses, but they're not that valuable from a fantasy perspective. Variables such as defense, foot speed, and shifts can permanently separate a player's expected performance from his actual production, and most leagues don't care about expected anything. The site is also structured to favor xwOBA more than the other two statistics, but its inputs don't correlate that well with traditional 5x5 roto leagues.
The increased availability of these stats means they're likely to pop up in more fantasy articles moving forward, but remember that they are a tool rather than an end. Let's try using them to discuss Atlanta Braves Dansby Swanson and Kurt Suzuki below.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) 67% Owned
Swanson is off to a sizzling start (.342/.375/.553 with two homers) after accomplishing virtually nothing last year (.232/.312/.324 with six homers, three steals, and three CS). His ownership rate suggests that fantasy owners are willing to trust his performance to date. His peripheral stats suggest that you probably shouldn't.
Swanson is currently BABIPing his way to success with a .429 mark against last year's .292. His BABIP was elevated during his 145 PA MLB debut in 2016 (.383), but last year is by far the largest sample we have. His largest minor league sample also concurs, as he slashed a pedestrian .261/.342/.402 with eight homers, six steals, and a .309 BABIP over 377 PAs at Double-A in 2016. Double-A Mississippi is a pitcher-friendly environment (0.877 ballpark factor for scoring from 2014-2016), but his line was still uninspiring.
That said, batting average is probably Swanson's best chance at fantasy relevance. He looks like a high LD% guy (23% career) who rarely hits fly balls (31.6% FB% this year, 29.9% career) and pop-ups (5.7% IFFB% career), allowing him to project for a relatively high BABIP. He also brings raw speed to the table (29.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint speed this year, 28.7 ft./sec last year), theoretically allowing him to get more infield hits than most. His BABIP won't remain over .400, but .330 is possible.
He wasn't close to that last year, and Statcast didn't think he deserved to be. He hit very few Barrels (3% rate of Brls/BBE) with middling exit velocity on grounders (83.8 mph) and airborne balls (91.5 mph). His xBA last year was .233, a whopping one point better than his actual production. He also overperformed his xSLG (.332) by 10 points, so he was bad because he deserved to be.
His contract metrics are off the charts in 2018 (95.1 mph average airborne exit velocity, 88.1 mph on the ground), but nothing in his track record suggests that he can sustain Aaron Judge's contact quality. Even if he did, his xBA of .291 suggests that he's still performing over his head.
Swanson posted solid plate discipline numbers last year, but they're trending in the wrong direction. His K% is virtually unchanged (22.5% vs. 21.8% last year), but his BB% has plummeted (10.7% to 5%). The reason why is his eye. His chase rate has increased from a better than league average 27.2% last year to a worse than league average mark of 34.1% this season. Worse, his Z-Swing% was actually higher last year (66.6% vs. 64.3%). The season is still young, and it's possible he's trying to be more aggressive while he's hot. Still, this is not what you look for in a breakout candidate.
Swanson's FB% is too low to project much power, especially when his career HR/FB of 7% is considered. He has the raw speed to steal, but has never done so in a significant way (16 with three CS across three levels in 2016 is his personal high). Last year's four-for-seven in SB attempts may have earned him a permanent red light as well.
Finally, the Braves have Swanson buried in the sixth or seventh slot in their batting order despite his fast start. If they don't believe in him, why should you?
Verdict: Chump
Kurt Suzuki (C, ATL) 19% Owned
Like Swanson, Suzuki is off to a sizzling start (.311/.400/.578 with three homers) this season. Unlike Swanson, his breakout occurred last year (.283/.351/.536 with 19 HR in 309 PAs) and appears sustainable based on his peripherals.
Suzuki joined the air ball revolution in 2017, increasing his FB% from 38.5% in 2016 to 46.6% last season. He's kept it up so far in 2018, increasing his FB% to 48.9%. He's also pulling more of his fly balls (36% last year vs. a career mark of 25.8%), another trend that's continued into 2018 (50%). It's virtually impossible to pull half of your fly balls over a full season, but the point is that Suzuki is still doing what he did last year.
The fly ball approach has also improved his airborne contact quality. After averaging 90.2 mph on air balls in both 2015 and 2016 with pitiful Brls/BBE rates (2.6% and 1%, respectively), Suzuki shot up to 91.9 mph and 7.1% a year ago. His exit velocity this year is similar (91.6 mph), and while his rate of Brls/BBE has regressed a bit (4.4%) it's still double what it used to be.
SunTrust Park has a reputation for inflating power numbers, but FanGraphs ballpark factors didn't think it did for right-handed batters like Suzuki last year (95 HR factor). Nevertheless, Suzuki's newfound appreciation for pulled, airborne baseballs likely makes his current 13.6% HR/FB sustainable moving forward. His career mark is much lower (6.7%), while last year;s mark was higher (17.1%). His performance to date seems like a reasonable compromise between the two.
A 25 HR pace is more than enough for a catcher to be fantasy-relevant, but Suzuki's batting average should be plus too. If Suzuki's new profile had an exploitable weakness last year, it was a more aggressive approach that produced a high chase rate (39.3%) where it didn't previously exist (26.5% career). This year, he's managed to cut his chase rate to 31.7% while simultaneously becoming more aggressive in the zone (76.2% Z-Swing% vs. 71.1% last year). It's still early, but plate discipline is one of the fastest stats to become meaningful.
The result has been a BB% that has nearly doubled (5.5% to 10.9%) while his already strong K% (12.6%) declined to a minuscule 3.9%. Suzuki will probably K slightly more often moving forward, but he's always been a great contact hitter and his plate discipline is objectively better than it used to be.
Elite plate discipline is important because Suzuki's BABIP is terrible. His career BABIP is just .273, and last year's .268 failed to reach even that. The reason why is a pop-up problem (15.3% IFFB% last year, 13.6% this) that has only grown more significant with his fly ball approach. His fly ball BABIP fell to .065 last year, and more of the same is likely in 2018.
Suzuki also runs like the aging catcher he is, so last year's .217 BABIP on ground balls last year is probably a more realistic expectation than his .239 career mark. Incidentally, Statcast is buying into his current average with an xBA of .317, but he's unlikely to sustain that. A repeat of last year's .280 is far more realistic and perfectly playable in a catcher slot.
The Braves hit Suzuki fifth or cleanup most games, giving him ample opportunity to add RBIs to his power and batting average combo. Above average fantasy production in three categories is much better than most catchers provide, so why is Suzuki available in so many leagues?
Verdict: Champ
