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Matt Wilkes breaks down how the SEC Conference Tournament can affect the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
The Southeastern Conference has long been known for its football prowess, but the kids on the hardwood are starting to catch up. In a league accustomed to being steamrolled by the likes of Kentucky and Florida, there were frequent upsets and lots of logjams in the standings, which are led by two unfamiliar names, as teams beat up on each other on a nightly basis. Even the bottom feeders like Vanderbilt and Ole Miss have pulled off their share of upsets.
If the regular season was any indication, the SEC Tournament will be one of the most entertaining to watch this week. The 14 teams are set to battle it out when the first game tips off from St. Louis on Wednesday at 7:00. The conference is all but certain to send eight teams to the NCAA Tournament, its most bids ever, and could see that number rise to nine if the cards fall the right way.
Here are the teams with postseason aspirations (listed in order of their seeding in the SEC Tournament) and what they need to do this week to get to the Big Dance:
Editor's Note: Over the next few days, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region will be released shortly.
Auburn Tigers (25-6, 13-5 vs. SEC)
While Auburn was expected to improve in Bruce Pearl’s third season, few believed they’d win the regular season conference title, especially with the FBI investigation looming over the program and center Austin Wiley ineligible to play. Nevertheless, the Tigers are the SEC Tournament’s top seed and won’t play until Friday, when they’ll take on the winner of Texas A&M vs. Alabama. Led by the formidable guard trio of Mustapha Heron (16.6 PPG, 5.5 RPG), Bryce Brown (16.4 PPG), and Jared Harper (13.9 PPG, 5.7 APG), Auburn’s fast-paced offense ranks 14th in the country in scoring and 15th in efficiency, according to KenPom.com. They’ve also done a fine job replacing Wiley down low thanks to Anfernee McLemore and Desean Murray.
However, McLemore, the SEC leader in blocks per game, is done for the year with a fractured ankle. The team has lost three of its five games without him, cooling off considerably since its 21-2 start. Auburn is currently listed as a #3 seed by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, and they’ll have to lean heavily on their guards to make a deep run in either the SEC or NCAA tournament.
Tennessee Volunteers (23-7, 13-5)
Another surprise team at the top of the conference standings, the Volunteers are bound for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014 after being selected to finish 13th in the SEC before the season. Under Rick Barnes, voted the conference coach of the year by his peers and the Associated Press, Tennessee has won 14 of its last 17 games, including four straight, and is playing some of its best basketball of the year entering postseason play. The Volunteers feature a strong rotation with seven players who average 20 minutes per game and none over 30 minutes. That includes the conference player of the year (sophomore forward Grant Williams) and co-sixth man of the year (sophomore guard Lamonte Turner), as well as veteran leader Admiral Schofield, who has seen his production go up with more minutes. Defense has been the calling card for the Volunteers, though, who rank fourth in the country in efficiency, per KenPom.com.
With an RPI of 9 and wins over Purdue, Kentucky, and Florida (as well as tightly contested losses to Villanova and North Carolina), it’s a matter of how high Tennessee gets seeded. Lunardi currently has the Volunteers at #3. With a win or two in the SEC Tournament, they should stay put, but they’ll challenge for a two seed if they win it all, which would be quite a feat for a team that was nothing more than an afterthought before the season.
Florida Gators (20-11, 11-7)
With Kentucky fielding one of the youngest rosters in the nation, Florida was expected by many to take back the SEC crown. That looked to be a strong possibility early in the season after wins against Gonzaga and Cincinnati, but the Gators haven’t met the preseason hype otherwise. A dominant win over Kentucky, however, gave Mike White’s team its third victory in a row after losing six of nine, and Florida is potentially peaking at the right time. The guard-heavy team is led by senior Chris Chiozza running the point, who tops the conference in assists (6.1 per game) and transfers Jalen Hudson and Egor Koulechov. Hudson in particular comes into the tournament red hot, averaging 22.7 points per game and shooting 58.8 percent from beyond the arc during Florida’s winning streak. The Gators will need more production from KeVaughn Allen, however, as the preseason first-team all-SEC representative has had a disappointing junior season (11.3 PPG, 37.0 FG%).
Despite 11 losses, the Gators’ strong RPI (36), strength of schedule ranking (35), and 10 Quadrant 1 wins mean they’re a lock for the NCAA Tournament, likely sitting as a #5 or 6 seed. With a double-bye, Florida won’t play until Friday, when they’ll have a possible resume-building matchup with #6 seed Arkansas.
Kentucky Wildcats (21-10, 10-8)
The Wildcats have won the last three SEC Tournaments, but they’re far from the favorite this year. John Calipari has traditionally done an unbelievable job of managing young teams, but this season has presented one of his toughest challenges yet. Kentucky lost eight key contributors from last season’s Elite Eight squad, returning only two sophomores to play alongside another heralded group of newcomers. The youngest team in the nation, Kentucky has certainly played like it at times, and it’s anyone’s guess which team shows up in St. Louis. After losing four straight, the Wildcats reeled off four victories in a row only to be dominated by Florida on Saturday, taking away momentum heading into the tournament. That being said, Calipari has potentially figured out the magic formula with the lineup of top-10 prospect Kevin Knox, Quade Green, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, P.J. Washington, and Jarred Vanderbilt if the latter two can stay out of foul trouble.
If the higher seeds win out, Kentucky will play Missouri on Friday and have a chance to build on their current projection of a #6 seed. An early exit could see them drop as low as the seven line due to a lack of Quadrant 1 wins (3).
Missouri Tigers (20-11, 10-8)
Michael Porter Jr., the second-ranked recruit in the nation, was the reason Missouri was supposed to get back to the Big Dance after going 27-67 the last three seasons combined. He played all of one minute this season due to a back injury. The Tigers are poised to get back to the NCAA Tournament anyway, in what will likely be their first appearance since 2013. First-team all-SEC representative Kassius Robertson is the player who has stepped up most in Porter’s absence, averaging 16.5 points per game and shooting 42.8 percent from three. Don’t discount the contributions of versatile forward Jordan Barnett (14.1 PPG, 42.2 3P%) and Porter’s brother Jontay, however. Adding to the Tigers’ intrigue this weekend is the possible return of Porter. The freshman phenom has been cleared to play but has yet to appear in a game since the injury. Missouri could use him, too, as it has only eight available players right now due to suspensions and injuries.
The Tigers will face the winner of Vanderbilt and Georgia on Thursday, two teams they’re undefeated against (2-0) this season. Missouri is likely already in the NCAA Tournament, but beating Kentucky for a second time this season in the quarterfinals would seal the deal. Lunardi currently has Mizzou as a #8 seed.
Arkansas Razorbacks (21-10, 10-8)
Under coach Mike Anderson, the Razorbacks have returned to relevancy and are poised to make the tournament for the third time in the last four seasons. They’re a dangerous offensive team, ranking 21st in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and could pose trouble for Florida if they make it to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Potential lottery pick Daniel Gafford (12.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.2 BPG) gives Arkansas a sizable advantage in the block with his 6-foot-11 frame, and the team has a pair of three-point snipers outside in Jaylen Barford (17.9 PPG, 43.4 3P%) and Daryl Macon (17.1 PPG, 43.8 3P%).
Despite impressive wins over Auburn and Tennessee, the Razorbacks’ overall strength of schedule (45) may hurt them a bit when it comes to seeding in the NCAA Tournament. They could wind up anywhere from the #6 to #9 line (Lunardi has them at #7 right now), and their performance in the SEC tourney will play a huge role in where they end up.
Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-10, 9-9)
No team could help its cause more this weekend than Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are another team that has defied expectations this season -- they were picked to finish 12th in the league -- thanks in large part to brothers Quinndary and Nick Weatherspoon, the team’s lone all-SEC members. However, coach Ben Howland’s squad is currently not even listed as a bubble team by Lunardi and will need a deep run in the SEC Tournament to get into the main event.
The Bulldogs are ranked 62nd by KenPom and have an RPI of just 68, but their strength of schedule (123) is particularly harmful. Because of their weak non-conference schedule, they don’t have many signature wins, with their only victories against top-50 RPI teams coming against Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Missouri. They’re set to face LSU in the second round of the SEC Tournament, hoping to avenge a 21-point loss against the Tigers last Saturday and keep their postseason hopes alive.
Texas A&M Aggies (20-11, 9-9)
Despite being one of the most disappointing teams in the SEC, the Aggies are still a force to be reckoned with when they’re on top of their game. Their frontcourt is among the best in the country, with SEC co-defensive player of the year Robert Williams and Tyler Davis ranking first and third, respectively, in the conference in rebounding. Davis has carried the load down the stretch, averaging 19 points and 8.8 rebounds over his last five games. Injuries and inconsistent play have kept Texas A&M from reaching its full potential, however.
They’re a near certainty to make the NCAA Tournament based on strength of schedule (8) and wins over USC on the road, West Virginia, and Auburn. Despite being the #8 seed, they’re a legitimate threat to win the SEC Tournament, which could get them as high as a #5 spot in the Big Dance. Lunardi currently has the Aggies as a #7 seed, and if that stands, their talent could pose a real problem for a #2 seed if they advance past the first round.
Alabama Crimson Tide (17-14, 8-10)
Following a disappointing showing in SEC play, including losses in its last five games, Alabama is limping into the SEC Tournament, and their NCAA tourney hopes are on life support. Despite their mediocre record, the Crimson Tide still remains on the bubble thanks to their 29th-ranked strength of schedule and impressive wins over Rhode Island, Auburn, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and then-#5 Texas A&M. From a talent standpoint, Alabama certainly has the personnel to make noise in March, led by five-star freshman and future lottery pick Collin Sexton (18.3 PPG, 3.6 APG). But Sexton will need more help from his teammates, namely the inconsistent Donta Hall and John Petty, to get the Crimson Tide into the field of 68. Alabama kicks off the tournament against Texas A&M on Thursday in what is likely a must-win game.
