RADIO
We are nearly at the 50-yard line of the fantasy NBA regular season and it's becoming more and more clear who did a good job drafting in the beginning of autumn and who hasn't had such luck. If you hit a rough stride and need some help scraping your team from the bottom of the fantasy pan, we're here for you!
Whether you've been hit with the injury bug, your players' strengths don't gel together as well as you had hoped or your guys just decided to play a prank on you and are performing awfully, there's always a way out! We will try and give you some tips on when to make a change, when to hold still and generally help you decide in which direction to take your team.
This is part-one a three-part piece. In the following two weeks we will also have some tips for those teams in the midst of the playoff battle and for teams that have gotten the draft just right, are sitting comfortably at or near the top of the standings and are already focusing on the playoffs. Please do keep in mind that we are talking about Redraft leagues here. More on Dynasty leagues will follow when we step into the New Year.
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God, Why Me!?
The first step towards the salvation of your season is figuring out what went wrong? It is very important to be as objective as possible when coming to the conclusion. Bad luck may be a part of the reason, sure, but you should never count on good luck to even that out. You must take matters into your own hands.
The most common reasons for a setback are injuries to early picks, low picks under performing and an awkward fit of players in the same team.
The most common reasons for a lost season are poor management of injured players, keeping on to "high upside" players for too long while they're sucking, being too attached to your players and not looking to fix the poor blend of different player's strengths on your squad.
Let's try and avoid these "lost season" ones...
Nooo!!! He was my best player!
If you drafted Gordon Hayward, Patrick Beverley or Jeremy Lin my heart goes out to you. I had Pat Bev on a few of my teams too so I know how you feel. But you probably parted ways with them already and you shouldn't look back. That's a "bad luck-can't do anything about it" situation. You just drop the player who is out for the season and try to pick up someone worthy from the waiver wire.
On the other hand, if you have Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, D'Angelo Russell or Rudy Gobert, here things get tricky. Do you wait for him to return? What should you take back in a trade? Do you flat out drop him?
Of course, don't drop any of these guys! Even if you're in the toughest of situations and shallowest of leagues, at least try and trade them first.
Whether you wait for him or try and trade him depends mostly on if your league has an Injury Reserve spot and on what you can get back in a trade.
If your league doesn't have an IR spot you must consider what you could get for that player.
Sure Griffin was a beast this season. Sure, he has the potential to be one when he returns in late January/early February. But that gives you about another month of his production (not counting the time he spends getting up to speed, the minutes restrictions and the rest days he might have in the beginning). If you're not doing so well, I would definitely advise shopping him around to see what other teams would give up to have him in their squad come the fantasy playoffs.
Be sure not to sell him off too cheap, but don't expect to get back a healthy player of equal value either. If you don't have an IR place available, three months of Thaddeus Young, Gary Harris or Will Barton do beat one month of Blake if you're in tough spot. I'dd pull the trigger on a deal like that in such a case.
Things are a bit different for teams with an IR spot. The main difference here is that you can replace your sidelined player with one from the free agent pool which helps soften the blow. If you're in a shallow league with plenty of options available on your wire, by all means, keep the injured player. But if you're in a deep league, and the guy you would be replacing your fallen stud with is a dud, than the advice above pretty much applies here as well. Except that you should look to get a bit more value back in this case.
DON'T Trust the Process
You've got some guys on your team who just aren't living up to their name? You expected more from the young guys with sky-high ceilings? Don't fall in love with their potential. Look for what you can get back for them and move on if it helps your team.
Goran Dragic, Brook Lopez, Ricky Rubio... They were all pegged to be top-50 players this year but are having difficulty returning top-100 value so far. I would have very different advice for you if your team was doing well, but if your clock is running out put them on your trading block and see what is offered in return. Don't take back any hot-streaker out there, but if you can get a solid top-75 player who is playing consistently and can help your team right away, it can beat waiting around for these fallen stars to pick themselves up again. Darren Collison, Trevor Ariza, Harrison Barnes are all names which give you decent value right now and could be available if you dangle one of the three players we mentioned in front of their owner.
If you put your faith and a decent draft pick in a young, up-and-coming player like Marquese Chriss or Skal Labissiere you must be feeling pretty damn hard done by. Neither of them are playing close to their potential, or to the level they were on in the second part of last season. And I do expect both of them to improve as the season goes and their teams switch from their experienced players to developing their youth. But you might not have the luxury of waiting for that to happen.
Instead find that owner who is doing well and likes the upside of your fallen infants. See how he values them and if he is willing to offer someone who is performing decently right now, but doesn't have as much potential for the finish of the season. E'Twaun Moore, Brandon Ingram or Jonathon Simmons are all guys who don't have as much fantasy stock as it is believe some other, younger guys have, but could offer an immediate upgrade which could prove crucial in your battle for the playoff spot. In a shallower league, you can just plain cut them. It's not worth anything to you if they kill it in March if you're watching your mates beat it out in the playoffs from the sidelines by then.
Reorganize. NOW!
If you're not sure how to figure out if your players make a good fit, here is a great punting article listing top players strengths and weaknesses in my man Trevor's punting guide. It can help you pin point if you have any colliding player values which cancel each other out.
If you've come to the conclusion that you are losing your matchups because your stars or role players don't mesh well with each other, don't shy away from making a few moves. You should almost NEVER have James Harden and Dwight Howard on the same team. The Rockets learned that the hard way.
Kidding aside, as they didn't work very well together in real life, they don't go together too well in fantasy either. Harden has the ability to almost single-handedly win you your FT% category on most game weeks. Howard on the other hand has the complete opposite power with his 51.6% on 8.0 attempts per game. And it goes the other way around too, with Harden hitting 45.5% of his 21.1 field goal attempts per contest. That doesn't bode too well for The Superman's 55.3% on 11.0 tries from the field.
So, for example, if none of your players block shots, and you have John Henson on your team, who gets most of his value from his blocks, you're better off trading him away for a player who is valuable in categories which you have a chance in winning, and just punting blocks all together.
Of course, keep in mind what kind of value your player has, don't just take back any guy that kind of fits your team another owner offers you just because I said you should trade Henson. Keep it realistic but have in mind your situation in the standings and whether or not you have more time to talk trades and negotiate.
The Power of Change
I hope that this advice helps you solve your dilemma on if and when to give up on a player, what to do with your injured star and which players shouldn't be put in the same pot because their flavors just don't go together well.
If you have any specific questions feel free to hit me up if I'm online here in our RotoBaller chat room, on reddit under u/zvekete or on twitter @zvekete_RB
I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you guys! Go and turn that season around!
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