RADIO
A general discussion of strategy seems like as good a preface as any for this topic. There’s something to be said for predictability in fantasy football. When you take a player in the early rounds, it makes you feel a little bit more warm and fuzzy to have some idea what that player is going to give you. Sure, we get excited about the “hype” guys- the players who we expect to do something we haven’t seen them do before, either because they’re young, the player(s) ahead of them on the depth chart left town, or they migrated to a more fantasy friendly situation themselves, but we rightly value the tried-and-true studs the highest. There’s a reason we’re drafting Julio Jones over Mike Evans. There’s a reason we’re drafting Jordy Nelson over Amari Cooper. Sure we all love all four players, but we know that we have different reasons for liking the first than the second in each example.
One strategy that I have been employing in fantasy football for some time now is what I call a “high-low” approach to the wide receiver position. The class of WRs that I know I’m going to want to start every single week, no matter what happens, from Week 1 to Week 17 is a relatively small one. In 2017 it’s probably only about 10 players. Then comes the WR middle class. Sure WR11 is a vastly more coveted player than WR45, but even though the list of players that I *love* runs out quickly, the list of players I *like* extends for round after round after round. This is where the “high-low” strategy comes into play. I want one guy that I can count on, one bona fide WR1 who is absolutely cemented in my starting lineup, barring injury. Then I want a smorgasbord of guys with a chance. This is especially true in leagues where I need only start two WRs. Last year Michael Thomas was not a top 100 pick. Last year Terrelle Pryor and Tyrell Williams were free agent pickups. These guys turned into WR2s even though they were way down the WR rankings in August. There’s no doubt that several WRs will make that leap in 2017 as well.
So give me Odell Beckham in round 1, or give me Michael Thomas in round 2. After that, I don’t need to make WR priority, because I’ve got guys I like who, if everything works out for them, can greatly outproduce their ADP and fill my WR2 spot every week. What follows is a list of WRs who I think have a chance to turn a significant profit, going outside of the top 40 at WR.
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Late-Round Wide Receiver Draft Values
Corey Coleman (ADP: pick 112)
The Browns selected Coleman with the 15th overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft. Drawing physical comparisons to Odell Beckham Jr., Coleman suffered through a hard-luck rookie season that saw him miss six games, catch passes from a motley crew of retread sub-mediocre NFL QBs, and play second fiddle to upstart teammate Terrelle Pryor. Coleman had his moments, but it’s fair to say that his rookie season never really got off the ground. Turn the page to 2017 and the Browns are handing the keys of the offense to rookie signal caller Deshone Kizer, a player with a lot more upside than anybody they had playing the position a year ago. Kizer’s fantasy friendly skill set (he’s good with his arm and his legs) should make keeping track of Corey Coleman a nightmare for opposing defenses. Granted there’s downside for both Kizer and Coleman, but the upside is in play for a big splash in 2017.
Adam Thielen (ADP: pick 121)
Tremendously efficient in 2016, Adam Thielen came out of relative obscurity to post 967 receiving yards and five TDs with 69 catches on just 92 targets. Thielen developed a good rapport with Sam Bradford on the way to a top 30 WR finish in 2016, despite only having 281 receiving yards through his first two seasons combined. Granted, breathing down his neck is second-year WR Laquon Treadwell, whom the Vikings selected with the 23rd overall pick in the 2016 draft, but Thielen has locked up a starting job opposite Diggs to start the season. Thielen has to be considered a candidate for a repeat of his performance in 2016 until Treadwell makes a better case to usurp him than he has to this point as the latter only has one career catch. Outside of the top 120 picks, Adam Thielen has the potential to be eminently usable, for pennies on the dollar.
Chris Hogan (ADP: pick 125)
Ok, it’s true, I’m cheating here. Hogan’s ADP is artificially depressed by the fact that it was only last Friday that his stock soared from universally undrafted, to nearly breaking into the consensus top 40 at the WR position. There are a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but Hogan posted respectable numbers on a scant 58 targets a year ago. Give him 80 targets at the same rate of production and he finishes at WR28 just ahead of Kenny Stills. Give him 100 targets and he finishes at WR11 just ahead of Tyreek Hill. The guy is efficient, to put it mildly. Granted, the hype may be getting out of control since news broke of teammate Julian Edelman’s torn ACL. The volume concerns aren’t totally gone with the addition of Brandin Cooks, the return of Rob Gronkowski, and what figures to be a heavy involvement of RBs in the passing game, but seeing 160 targets from 2016 vanish from the 2017 depth chart means that Chris Hogan has a chance to be on the field most of the time, on an offense led by Tom Brady. I want a piece of that action and Hogan is still as cheap a piece as you’re likely to find. If he slips to round 10, pounce. I’d add that if you’ve already drafted a team or two, pounce.
Rishard Matthews (ADP: pick 127)
It seems to me that we’re assuming a lot in disrespecting Matthews the way we, the fantasy community as a collective have disrespected him this draft season, drafting him behind both of his teammates, themselves new arrivals to Tennessee. Like Hogan, Matthews is a guy who made hay on a pretty low volume of targets in 2016, but even with only 108 targets, Matthews’ tremendous efficiency metrics saw him finish as 15th overall among WRs in standard formats. Corey Davis is a rookie who as yet has no rapport with Marcus Mariota and has missed essentially the entire preseason with a hamstring injury. Eric Decker is coming off two surgeries after missing 13 games in 2016, and has made one cameo appearance in Preseason Week 1. Yet we expect both of these guys to leapfrog the incumbent Matthews for the two presumptive starter spots? Right now drafters are asleep at the wheel. Heading into Week 1, Matthews should be the highest ranked Titans WR and he isn’t even being drafted in every league. There is tremendous opportunity for him to reprise his role as Mariota’s go-to guy.
Sterling Shepard (ADP: pick 149)
Buoyed by eight TDs on a mere 65 catches from a year ago, Shepard was fantasy relevant for at least most of his rookie season. Odell Beckham Jr. was a target hog that kept Shepard from enjoying enough volume to enter the WR2 conversation and Eli Manning delivered one of the worst seasons of his career, but Shepard’s rookie season was the sort that left prospective drafters excited about what kind of leap he’d make in year two. Fast forward to the 2017 offseason and Shepard was rendered an afterthought when the G-Men brought Brandon Marshall into town. In spite of this, there are some developments that should make us take a longer look at the second-year wideout. First, the Giants led the entire NFL in snaps played out of a three-wide receiver set in 2016 at an astounding rate of 92% of the team’s offensive plays. Shepard’s spot on the field is secure. Beyond this, both Beckham and Marshall suffered injuries in Week 2 of the Preseason that could conceivably keep at least one of them out of the opener vs the Cowboys. Shepard is, at the very least, a stash and see, and can be started as a WR3 in the event that OBJ misses Week 1.
