X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Top Power-Metric Gainers - What to Expect in 2017

The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.

Today's piece caps off our short series looking at those who posted gains in hard-hit, pull and fly ball rates in 2016 -- categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at all three of these metrics individually, but now we're going to tie it all together and look at the names who had at least a 4% gain in each stat. While we're not going to go overboard and expect the world of them in 2017, it's nice to be able to look back at their 2016 stats and know their results weren't just some fluky HR/FB luck.

We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Top Power-Metric Gainers in 2016

Player Name Hard Hit Gain Pull Rate Gain Fly Ball Rate Gain Average Gain
Yasmany Tomas 10% 9.30% 8.20% 9.17%
Matt Holliday 5.20% 12.70% 6.90% 8.27%
Salvador Perez 9.80% 4.40% 9.70% 7.97%
Kevin Kiermaier 6.80% 8.20% 8.30% 7.77%
Jason Kipnis 5.10% 5.50% 9.30% 6.63%
Brad Miller 4.80% 9.60% 5.40% 6.60%
Christian Yelich 4.90% 4.30% 5% 4.73%

 

What to Expect From These Power-Metric Gainers?

Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B/OF

Tomas is the poster boy for this whole series, as he leads the pack with gains above 8% in all three categories that we’ve analyzed. While some of this is due to his underwhelming 2015 where he only hit nine homers in 426 plate appearances, that still doesn’t mean he was guaranteed to turn it around. The only real question one has to ask themselves is whether they believe in Tomas’ new form that he showed at age-25 and how much regression might hit him. It’s highly unlikely that he can post a 25% HR/FB rate again (tied with Chris Davis) and create such wild value out of a below league-average 31.4% fly-ball rate, but with his other gains then he just might not drop off as much as others fear – let alone if he actually continues to grow.

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees – 1B/OF

Holliday wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for an injury-hampered 2015 campaign that made his return to “normal” Hollidian levels appear so dramatic. That said, there was no guarantee that the aging slugger was going to be able to bounce back so this is still nice to see – especially before he begins his service at the sandbox known as Yankee Stadium. While his .246 average from ’16 was easily a career worst, it makes sense considering these power-oriented gains he showed. The 20 homers in only 426 PAs matched his 20 homers from 2014, except he needed 667 PAs to do so then. While owners won’t be upset if he reverts back toward his .270s average and lesser power ways, he could blast 25+ homers in Yankee Stadium. He’s currently 12-for-39 with four homers (1.075 OPS) in Spring Training, so I’m buying.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals - C

Perez has slowly turned himself into your stereotypical loud-power, middling-average catcher after six big-league seasons. He hit .331 in his rookie showing of 2011 (158 plate appearances) before hitting .301, .292, .260, .260 and most recently, .247. This has been paired with homer totals of 11, 13, 17, 21 and 22 over the last five seasons, though he hadn’t ever seen an uptick in metrics across the board like this before. He hadn’t ever seen a strikeout rate increase as dramatic either, though (14.8% to 21.8%). Look for the power to play up yet again in 2017 as his swing continues to profile in a more “slugger” fashion. It’d be ideal if Kauffman Stadium was more hitter-friendly and if the Royals had a little more to offer in the counting stats, but 60 runs and RBIs should join his 20+ homers to make for solid value.

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays - OF

Kiermaier flashed his double-digit pop with 20-steal potential in 2015 before really becoming a more extreme power hitter in ’16 with an above-average fly-ball rate with a much healthier hard-hit rate. The pull rate holding near 50% with the fly balls should point to how a guy with serious wheels can only muster a .246 average (.278 BABIP). Think of how Billy Hamilton suffered by hitting too many flies instead of peppering grounders and letting his legs help him out. The difference here is that Kiermaier actually houses the power to leave the yard with some regularity. If he holds onto most of these gains then he could hit 15-18 homers with 25-30 steals, with potential for a solid run total if he gets a piece of the leadoff-platoon pie.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – 2B

Kipnis had gone through two disappointing seasons in a row with a power-zapped 2014-15 that saw him only hit 15 homers in 1,196 plate PAs (compared to 17 in 2013 – 658 PAs). While he wasn’t bad in 2015 – he hit a career-high .303 – it was just underwhelming after a promising upward trajectory was cut down by an injury-laden age-27 season. Kipnis then partied like it was 2013 last season, as nearly all of his metrics read similarly to that superb season (though he only stole 15 bases in ’16 compared to 30 in ’13). After posting HR/FB rates of 4.8% and 6.9%, he brought that mark up to 13.1% (12.4% in ’13). While we need him to rebound from this early-season injury, Kipnis should still have the profile of a guy who can hit 18 homers and swipe double-digit bags with a healthy average and counting stats.

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays – 1B/SS

Miller clearly put power on the forefront of his to-do list in the middle of 2016 after a rough first two months of the season, as the 27-year-old went on to blast 25 homers over the final four months of ’16. Interestingly, his batted-ball rates really didn’t fluctuate that much between those unfortunate first two months and the final four outside of a low 29.2% fly-ball rate in May (when he hit for better average, .291). His HR/FB rate shot up from around 15% to 26.9% in July and 33.3% in August before coming back down to 16.7% in September/October. Let’s assume the mid-to-high teens are his usual, with spikes possible. His fantasy owners in daily formats should be mindful of his lesser power against lefties, as he only slugged .373 against them (.509 vs. RHP) thanks to a 30.8% hard-hit rate (36.1% vs. RHP).

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins - OF

Yelich has long been known for his plus speed/average and groundball ways, but had always teased us with such a good hitting tool that he could feasibly become a five-category contributor if he could just stop trying to kill groundhogs at the dish. 2016 saw him finally flip the switch, as these modest gains in all three power-hitting metrics aligned to yield a lofty 23.6% HR/FB rate (up from 12.5%) that saw him hit 21 homers after mashing only seven in ’15. His ground-ball rate had so much to give that he still turned in a 56.5% mark and sustained a high .356 BABIP – allowing him to keep his high average (.298) – but with all of these things coming together, it just meant that those increased fly balls became that much more valuable as the young outfielder vaulted his way into the top-10 OF conversation.

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kareem Hunt

Scores Twice in Monday Night Win Over Washington
George Springer

Pulled Early in Game 3 With Side Injury
Terry McLaurin

Questionable to Return in Week 8 After Aggravating Quad Injury
Baltimore Orioles

Orioles Finalizing Deal to Hire Craig Albernaz as the Next Manager
William Byron

Dominates at Martinsville and Advances to the Championship Round
Kyle Larson

Advances to the Championship Round After Top-Five Finish
Ryan Blaney

Falls Short of the Victory and Title Contention at Martinsville
Chase Elliott

Eliminated From 2025 Title Contention Despite Strong Martinsville Run
Daniel Gafford

Remains Out Versus OKC
Dereck Lively II

Out on Monday Evening
Josh Giddey

Set to Suit Up Monday
Jaylen Brown

Available Against Pelicans
William Nylander

Questionable for Tuesday
Caris LeVert

Sidelined Again on Monday
Rasmus Sandin

to Miss Third Straight Game
Lamar Jackson

Ravens Expect Lamar Jackson to Play on Thursday Night
Jalen Johnson

Available Versus Chicago
Kristaps Porzingis

Back on Monday Night
Dylan Strome

Ruled Out for Tuesday
Marcus Sasser

Unavailable Monday
Zion Williamson

Ruled Out on Monday Night
Brad Marchand

Won't Play on Tuesday
Alexey Toropchenko

Returns to Blues Lineup
Jake Neighbours

Unavailable Versus Penguins
Robert Thomas

Out on Monday
Michael Carter

Cardinals Release Michael Carter on Monday
Jaxson Hayes

Sidelined Again on Monday
Carson Wentz

to Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Marcus Smart

Out Against Portland
Gabe Vincent

Sidelined on Monday
Chet Holmgren

Available for Monday Night Tilt
Jaylen Brown

Questionable for Monday Night
Yves Missi

Back in Action Monday Night
CFB

Behren Morton Will Start Against Kansas State
Zion Williamson

Questionable Monday vs. Celtics
Nico Collins

Trending Toward a Week 9 Return
Dereck Lively II

Doubtful for Monday's Matchup
Egor Demin

to Miss Monday's Tilt
Puka Nacua

Expected to Practice Wednesday, Play in Week 9
Dereck Lively II

Doubtful for Monday's Matchup
Egor Demin

Won't Suit Up Monday
Caris LeVert

Considered Questionable on Monday
CFB

Lane Kiffin Says Money Won't Impact his Decision-Making
Tony Pollard

Reportedly Available for Trade
CFB

Arch Manning in Concussion Protocol, Misses Practice Monday
Brian Thomas Jr.

Jaguars Not Planning on Trading Brian Thomas Jr.
Justin Fields

Jets Non-Committal on Justin Fields as the Starter Going Forward
Christopher Bell

Eliminated From Championship 4 After a Too Conservative Season
Joey Logano

Lack of Championship-Caliber Speed Leads to Elimination
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Last at Martinsville
Denny Hamlin

Don't Think Denny Hamlin's Engine Failure Affects his Championship Prospects
Cam Skattebo

Out for the Season With Dislocated Ankle
Nick Schmaltz

Stretches Point Streak to Seven Games
Ciryl Gane

Fight With Tom Aspinall Ends In No-Contest
Kirill Kaprizov

Records Three Assists in Losing Effort
William Eklund

Has Three Points in Sunday's Win
Brock Boeser

Totals Three Points Sunday
Ciryl Gane

Tom Aspinall Vs. Ciryl Gane Ends in No-Contest
Warren Foegele

Exits Early Sunday
Ilya Mikheyev

Exits With Injury Sunday
Virna Jandiroba

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Quinn Hughes

Day-to-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Mackenzie Dern

Wins Vacant Strawweight Title
Mario Bautista

Gets Outclassed
Umar Nurmagomedov

Gets Back In The Win Column
Jailton Almeida

Drops Decision
Alexander Volkov

Wins Split Decision At UFC 321
Azamat Murzakanov

Remains Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Tucker Kraft

Dominates With 143 Yards, Two Touchdowns on Sunday Night
Troy Franklin

Explodes for Two Touchdowns Against Cowboys
J.K. Dobbins

Breaks 100 Yards Again but Doesn't Find the End Zone
Bo Nix

has a Season-Best Four Passing Touchdowns
Jalen Hurts

Matches Career High With Four Touchdown Passes in Week 8
RJ Harvey

R.J. Harvey Breaks Out With Three Touchdowns in Week 8
Marvin Mims Jr.

Enters Concussion Protocol
Tua Tagovailoa

Throws Four Touchdowns in Win
Breece Hall

Records Three Touchdowns
Patrick Kane

to Remain Out on Tuesday
Spencer Rattler

Benched in Week 8
Brett Pesce

Ruled Out for Road Trip
Jason Dickinson

Expected Back on Sunday
Tyler Bertuzzi

Skips Sunday's Action
Marcus Foligno

Out Sunday
Roope Hintz

Unavailable Versus Predators
Rickard Rakell

Undergoes Hand Surgery
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher A Playable DFS option for Martinsville?
Ryan Preece

is an Intriguing DFS Option For Martinsville
Daniel Suarez

May be Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering in DFS for Martinsville This week?
Christopher Bell

Kyle Larson Should Advance to Championship 4
Joey Logano

Don't Expect Joey Logano to Significantly Contend for Championship 4
William Byron

A DFS Must-Start Due to Lap-Leader Points
Ross Chastain

Hail Melon Nostalgia Masks Ross Chastain's Martinsville Mediocrity
Josh Berry

a Top Contender for DFS Place-Differential Points
Brad Keselowski

an Intriguing Martinsville Option
Shane Van Gisbergen

Now Competent on Ovals, but Don't Start Him Here
Kyle Busch

Qualifies Well but Probably Won't Have Staying Power
Carson Hocevar

Lack of Finesse Makes Him a Risky Martinsville Pick
Bryce Harper

Phillies Aren't Planning to Trade Bryce Harper
Bo Bichette

Starting at Second, Batting Cleanup in Game 1 of World Series
Bo Bichette

Makes World Series Roster
Ciryl Gane

Scheduled For A Title Fight
Tom Aspinall

Set for First Official Title Defense
Mackenzie Dern

Can Become The New Strawweight Champion
Virna Jandiroba

Set For UFC 321 Co-Main Event
Mario Bautista

Aims To Extend His Win Streak
MMA

Umar Numagomedov A Favorite At UFC 321
Jailton Almeida

Hopes To Get A Title Shot With A Win
Alexander Volkov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Azamat Murzakanov

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Aleksandar Rakic

In Dire Need Of Victory
CFB

Texas Tech QB Will Hammond Will Start vs. Oklahoma State Saturday
CFB

Kansas State RB Dylan Edwards Out For Sunflower Showdown
CFB

Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson Will Not Play In Week 9
Zack Wheeler

Could be Ready for Opening Day in 2026
William Contreras

Could Need Finger Surgery
CFB

Utah QB Devon Dampier Listed as Questionable on Big 12 Injury Report
San Francisco Giants

Tony Vitello Named New Manager of the Giants
Francisco Lindor

has Elbow Surgery, Expected to be Ready for Spring Training
PGA

Alex Noren is a Smash Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Maverick McNealy

Look Out For Maverick McNealy This Week in Utah
Justin Lower

Unlikely to Flip The Script at Bank of Utah Championship
Stephan Jaeger

Looking for Repeat Performance in Utah
CFB

Behren Morton Will be Listed as Questionable on Wednesday
Max McGreevy

a Longer Shot to Contend in Utah
Jackson Suber

on the Bubble for the PGA in 2026
Greyson Sigg

Improving at the Right Time This Fall
Seamus Power

Hopes to Make More Birdies This Week
Patton Kizzire

May Struggle Once Again in Utah
Beau Hossler

Up and Down Heading to Bank of Utah Championship
Adam Hadwin

Looking to Find the Weekend in Utah
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Enjoying the Fall Golf Season

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP