X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Jonathan Villar & Billy Hamilton

Rick Lucks analyzes speed plays Jonathan Villar and Billy Hamilton to evaluate if they are worth the price of admission.

Fantasy baseball has always assigned more importance to the running game than its real life counterpart. Rotisserie leagues set steals as equally valuable to home runs, despite the fact that the latter are a guaranteed run on the board. As homers go up and steals decline, some are arguing that steals should be more of a priority on Draft Day than power.

If you plan to spend on speed, two names immediately come to mind: Jonathan Villar and Billy Hamilton. Villar stole 62 bags to go with a triple slash line of .285/.369/.457 and 19 homers in a breakout 2016. Hamilton finally started looking like a hitter, posting a .260/.321/.343 line with his 58 swipes. Both are leaving draft boards early on, but are they a good use of that selection? Let's investigate!

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Jonathan Villar (MIL SS/3B) ADP: 30.3

Fantasy owners always knew Villar was a SB candidate, but last year went well beyond his assumed ceiling. His .285 average and 19 homers would play from a middle infielder even without the 62 swipes. His 18 CS last year gave him a strong success rate of roughly 78 percent, so steals seem like a given this year. With his current ADP however, something else will have to come with it to justify the cost.

Villar's solid batting average was the result of a .373 BABIP, a number that seems inflated even if we ignore his .268 career BABIP on ground balls in favor of last year's .313 rate. The prior year's .300 BABIP seems like a fair projection moving forward given his speed. His performance on line drives is almost certain to drop (.728 BABIP last year vs. .694 career), and his 24.1 percent FB rate was actually slightly higher than 2015's 23 percent rate. Villar has the skills to support his .347 career BABIP, but that could take his average too low to be a huge fantasy asset.

Optimists may point to his .165 BABIP on fly balls in 2016 (career .195) as a source of positive regression to offset some of the negative regression forecasted above. They're probably right, but it will hurt Villar's value. His 19 big flies were the result of a HR/FB surge to 19.6 percent, nearly double the previous year's rate of 10 percent. This removed all of Villar's well struck flies from his BABIP, a problem that will be rectified when they start staying in the yard. He did not pull any more flies than he used to (16.5 percent vs. 17.7 percent career), so the HR/FB figures to head south.  There is just no way Villar is a 20 HR bat with a 24.1 percent FB percent.

There is hope for improvement in Villar's 25.6 percent K rate, as his eye is plus (24.1 percent O-Swing%) while his SwStr% (10.6 percent) is only slightly higher than average. His 42 games at 3B give him eligibility there in all formats, and he figures to add second base early in the season if his nine games there are not enough to qualify in your format. Still, he is very expensive and only steals seem like a given. I can't endorse him at this price.

Verdict: Chump

 

Billy Hamilton (OF, CIN) ADP: 66.3

Unlike many speedsters, Hamilton actually gains value if your league uses Net Steals. He was only caught eight times last year with 58 successes, giving him more Net Steals (50) than most players' raw SB totals. Sadly, he may not have so many opportunities in 2017. Sure he's fast, but no one can sustain a .368 BABIP on ground balls. His career .302 BABIP on grounders seems like a much more reasonable projection, sending Hamilton's .260 average back to painful levels in fantasy.

Hamilton also posted a career worst 20.2 percent K rate. Advanced metrics did not support it, as his eye improved slightly (27.6 percent O-Swing% in 2015 to 25.3 percent last year) while his SwStr% increase (7.2 percent to 7.8 percent) was mostly the result of a career low 67.1 O-Contact%. Contact on pitches outside of the strike zone is usually weak anyway, so a swinging strike may be a better outcome.

Hamilton's biggest problem may be his teammate Jose Peraza. Brandon Phillips has finally been moved, giving Peraza a place to play. Peraza is nearly as fast as Hamilton and has shown signs of being a competent singles hitter at the MLB level, making him a more attractive leadoff option than Hamilton's pure speed profile.  Hamilton's rosiest projections always include a boatload of runs scored from hitting at the top of the lineup, but the Reds now have a better option for the role.

Hamilton's 3.6 percent HR/FB despite calling The Great American Bandbox home is the punchline of a joke, so he can really only help in steals, average, and runs. Peraza might take the runs, dooming Hamilton to the bottom of the lineup. His average will be bad if he doesn't hit .360+ on ground balls. That makes him a pure speed play who goes 100+ picks before comparable players like Jarrod Dyson and Travis Jankowski. Seems like a poor use of resources to me.

Verdict: Chump




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pete Crow-Armstrong

Homers Twice, Drives in Three
Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF