The non-waiver trade deadline has officially passed, and baseball fans were treated to a number of last second deals. Unfortunately for my purposes, most of them are RPs that I evaluate by whether they get saves. Washington's Mark Melancon and Chicago's Aroldis Chapman earn Champ tags from me as they figure to continue earning saves.

Chumps include Texas's Jeremy Jeffress, new Yankee Tyler Clippard, and Chicago's Joe Smith, all of whom had at least a share of saves before being dealt. Andrew Miller fits in here as well, as he is looking at the short side of a platoon with incumbent Cody Allen at best. I know that elite RPs can "improve your ratios," but their IP totals are so small that one bad outing can ruin all of the good they do. With so much volatility and few wins or saves, I'd rather stream SPs. A few non-bullpen pieces were also moved, and three such AL players are below. I'll hit the NL next week. For now, let's take a closer look at Drew Pomeranz, Carlos Beltran, and Jonathan Lucroy.

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Drew Pomeranz (SP, BOS)

The owner of a 3.09 ERA and 27% K%, Pomeranz has been a revelation for the San Diego Padres Notebook" href="http://www.rotoballer.com/mlb-fantasy-news/?team=SD">Padres and fantasy owners alike this season. The Padres flipped him to Boston, which figures to provide the run support to drastically improve his current 8-9 record. Good move for fantasy owners, right?

A peek under the hood reveals a 3.74 xFIP, suggesting that Pomeranz's shiny surface stats should not be trusted. His 79.3% strand rate is significantly higher than his career 73.1% mark, while a .253 BABIP seems low even for a guy with a history of suppressing BABIP (.273 career). Optimists may see the high K% as legitimizing the career best strand rate and blindly trust the pitcher's BABIP suppressing skills, but I wouldn't.

A 27% K% is great, and a great K% can certainly elevate strand rate. However, I do not trust the strikeouts to continue. Pomeranz's K% spike is rooted in a pitch selection change that cuts down on 4-seamers (58.5% last year to 35.7% this) in favor of more knucklecurves (30.7% to 40.1%) and a brand new changeup (1.2% to 9.6%). By SwStr%, the change (14.8%) and K-Curve (12.7%) are the best in Pomeranz's arsenal, so a K% uptick makes sense.

Neither offering is a true wipeout pitch, though. The SwStr% numbers are good not great, and their respective chase rates (33.3% and 31.3%) are nothing special. The heater's 9.4% SwStr% is good, but it was over 14% last year. 27% is an exceptional K%, but it is not backed by exceptional stuff. Regression to last year's good not great 23% rate seems likely, reducing some of Pomeranz's fantasy appeal.

The change in pitch selection also makes Pomeranz susceptible to the long ball. The new changeup boasts an excellent triple slash line against of .132/.250/.395, but is also allowing fly balls that clear the fence at a high rate (57.7% FB%, 20% HR/FB). This suggests that the pitch is still a work in progress despite some encouraging signs. The fastball's 46.8% FB% and 17.6% HR/FB also suggest that it can be hittable. Overall, Pomeranz has an 11.7% HR/FB that does not figure to improve in a hitter's park with AL rules.

Pomeranz has an ability to limit BABIP, some of which is reflected in an ability to limit LD% (19.1% career). His current 15.6% mark, however, seems too low to sustain even for him. His FB% against is steady relative to last year (36.3% last year to 36.9% this), but his IFFB% has declined significantly (17.4% to 11.7%). This suggests more well struck airborne contact, a recipe for the gopheritis described above. A lower than average BABIP should be expected going forward, but it will probably be higher than .253.

Pomeranz is also walking more guys this year, as last year's 8.7% rate has ballooned to 10.5%. This would be acceptable if the K% surge depended on an offering with a low Zone%, but Pomeranz lacks that type of pitch. Recency bias doesn't help Pomeranz in this regard either, as he walked six in his most recent start. I hate walks and Pomeranz issues a bunch.

In conclusion, Pomeranz is not as good as his surface stats suggest. The move to Boston should produce more Ws, but otherwise figures to hurt him due to the hitter friendly ballpark with a DH. He's rosterable in standard leagues, but miscast as anything more than a back end starter.

Verdict: Chump

 

Carlos Beltran (OF, TEX)

Beltran continues to age like a fine wine, compiling a .302/.341/.547 line with 23 dingers in his age 39 season. He has been solid in recent years, but his power had notably dropped off from his prime years. In fact, this is his first plus power season since 2012.

Beltran's 40.7% FB% is a slight decrease relative to last year's 42.9%, but remains high enough to support a strong HR pace. That's the good news. The bad is that his HR/FB has spiked to 18.7% after hovering around 11% since 2012. I can't find a reason Beltran can sustain this. He is pulling a good number of his flies (32.5%), a significant improvement over last year's 28.1% mark. However, he pulled a massive 36.4% of his flies in 2014 without recovering his vintage power numbers. His IFFB% has also surged from 7.6% last year to 12.2% this year, suggesting less authoritative airborne contact.

Beltran's strong batting average is also the result of a .318 BABIP that I'm not sure he can sustain. Both his grounders (.264) and liners (.776) are significantly overperforming their career averages (.244 and .711 respectively). The ground balls are particularly puzzling, as Beltran has clearly lost several steps from his prime. Optimists may point to positive regression for his current 19.2% LD% as a BABIP booster, but it is far from guaranteed with a career 19.8% rate.

On the bright side, Beltran is completely shift proof despite his power. He's hitting .347 against it versus .284 without it, and his 60.3% Pull% on ground balls is not too bad for a power bat. This suggests that Beltran can be expected to produce a league average BABIP, even if his current rate is mostly batted ball luck.

Beltran's floor is also aided by his destination, as Arlington should help him as much as Yankee Stadium did while the Rangers Notebook" href="http://www.rotoballer.com/mlb-fantasy-news/?team=TEX">Rangers support him with a stronger lineup. He's hit third in each game since the trade, suggesting that Beltran will retain his premium slot in the order. Furthermore, the team's roster construction allows Beltran to DH regularly, hopefully allowing his 39 year old body to withstand the rigors of the dog days of summer. I'm projecting declines for Beltran's average and power, but he should still be plenty usable in all formats as a solid bat with some pop and a great situation around him.

In terms of plate discipline, Beltran's 31.6% O-Swing% would be the worst of the slugger's borderline Hall of Fame career. It is still a league average mark, so it is not as if he's hopeless. His SwStr% is also up slightly (7.4% to 8.5%), but the drop off is entirely outside of the zone (70.6% O-Contact% last year, 66.5% this.) His Z-Contact% remains a robust 91%, allowing him to post a strong 18% K%.

Beltran has one of the best SB success rates in MLB history, but has not attempted to steal since 2014. His current line has benefited from both BABIP and HR/FB luck, but the regression should not be too steep. He'll remain a competent bat in a great hitting situation, accruing PAs as a DH while qualifying as an outfielder in all fantasy formats. I also love his style, so he gets a Champ tag.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jonathan Lucroy (C, TEX)

After universally disappointing owners with a .264/.326/.391 line with seven big flies in 415 PAs last year, Lucroy has returned to the elite with a .296/.357/.483 line, 14 homers, and five steals this year. I said he may not be traded last week, and he ends up traded twice, vetoing a deal to Cleveland before heading to Texas. Go figure.

It was probably a good move for him. Like Yankee Stadium, Miller Park is great for power hitters. Like Beltran, Lucroy isn't likely to miss it with his new Arlington address. Milwaukee's lineup gets ugly halfway through, but Texas is deep in quality offensive options. That depth impacts Lucroy more than Beltran, as he has hit sixth since the trade - a far cry from Beltran's coveted third slot. He should still generate his fair share of counting stats.

Lucroy's power disappeared last year due to a 29.4% FB%, only 14.1% of which were pulled. Lucroy's career FB% is a much healthier 35.6%, a number his current 36.9% closely resembles. His HR/FB has also improved to 13.6% from 7.6% last year. I'm usually skeptical of such spikes from established hitters, but Lucroy is pulling flies for the first time in his career.

His Pull% on flies is 26.2%, a substantial improvement over last year's mark and the 16.9% figure that preceded it. His career rate is 20.9%, propped up by numbers from earlier in his career. This change, coupled with the fact that a 13.6% HR/FB is really not that high for a guy with a bandbox home park, suggest to me that a 20+ home run pace can safely be expected moving forward.

I am a little more skeptical of Lucroy's batting average. His .335 BABIP seems very high for a catcher, as both his grounders (.264) and liners (.712) are performing better than usual (career .235 and .692, respectively). His 23.7% LD% also seems inflated, but Lucroy's career 22.8% mark and the fact that he has not posted a number worse than league average since 2010 suggest that a plus LD% is part of Lucroy's skill set. I expect a .315 BABIP or so moving forward.

Lucroy's K% has increased three years running, going from 10.8% in 2014 to 15.4% last year to 18.6% so far this season. The latest uptick is the result of a career worst 7.8% SwStr%, itself the work of a Z-Contact% that has fallen from 93.5% to 89%. Despite the use of negative sounding words, all of Lucroy's plate discipline numbers remain strong. His 8.8% BB% is also solid. These may reflect the first signs of the aging process, but Lucroy should still have a couple strong seasons left in him.

You can find problems with any player's profile, if you look hard enough. I recommend not doing so for Lucroy, as catchers are absolutely terrible this year. Lucroy's 119 wRC+ (all encompassing offensive metric where 100 is average) immediately becomes the best in the AL at the position, supplanting Brian McCann's 103 wRC+. McCann is deeply flawed at this stage of his career, and besides him only Salvador Perez (102) and Kurt Suzuki (102 in just 265 PAs) are above average in the AL. MLB as a whole adds only Wilson Ramos and Buster Posey above Lucroy.

Lucroy's five swipes are attached to zero CS, so there is no reason for him to stop running a little. If nothing else, his friskiness on the basepaths suggest that he feels healthy. A healthy Lucroy is a productive Lucroy, among the best fantasy assets at his position.

Verdict: Champ

 

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