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Three Players Who You Should Considering Selling High On
While this weekly column exists to determine whether you should trust a given player's performance, there are not enough data points to consider meaningful analysis of 2015 statistics. Last week we looked at three 2014 breakouts who we expect to continue their improved play, and this week we will look at three players who may not fare quite as well. There is nothing inherently wrong with rostering any of the players below, but you should know that they will not perform to their 2014 levels. If someone wants to buy them at an inflated price, consider selling high while you can.
Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN
This former top prospect delivered in a big way in 2014, hitting .273 with a healthy 25 bombs. Both of those marks are unlikely to repeat in 2015, however. Mesoraco posted a K-rate that rose to 23.4% from 17.3% the previous year, a change substantiated by an increased swinging strike percentage (9.6% in 2013, 13.3% in 2014). His average was propped up by a 22.9% line drive rate despite the Ks, but such a number is not in keeping with his generally below average performance in that regard. The Reds catcher also enjoyed luck in what happened to his liners after he hit them, as they fell in for a BABIP of .769, significantly higher than the league average of .685. When these numbers regress, the average is likely to plummet from helping in mixed leagues to actually hurting fantasy teams.
The power is also likely to evaporate to an extent, as Mesoraco posted a 20.5% HR/FB rate in 2014 - meaning that a little over a fifth of all of the balls he hit into the air ended up clearing the fence. That is Giancarlo Stanton territory, and Mesoraco never posted such a strong rate previously despite playing home games in a stadium that augments power. In fact he averaged a 10% HR/FB rate over his career prior to last season, so he essentially doubled his power output. That is likely to correct in 2015, meaning that Mesoraco will not have the power to justify the average hit his fantasy teams will take.
What a regressed Mesoraco might look like was hinted at in the second half last season, as much of his good fortune took place in the first. His first half numbers consisted of 16 HR and a .304 average, ludicrous numbers driven by a .341 overall BABIP and 23.9% HR/FB rate. His second half was far more modest: 9 HR, .237 average, .273 overall BABIP, and 16.4% HR/FB. While the second half BABIP is south of the league average, Mesoraco runs like the catcher he is - a low BABIP should be expected. His power was still above average, which may be sustainable due to his home park and increased tendency to hit the ball in the air (33.8% flies in 2013 to 43% last season). Of course, it may not hold. Either way, best case scenario is a .240ish average with 20ish HR, numbers significantly lower than his current trade value. Don't hesitate to make a move.
Phil Hughes, SP, MIN
Who posted a better K to BB rate than the former Yankee prospect's 11.63 last year? Noone in the modern history of the game, as Hughes easily outpaced the previous record of 11 set by Bret Saberhagen. That alone should make you wary of a repeat as history is not made every season, especially by so-so pitchers like Hughes has been for the majority of his career. His strikeout rate remained solid but not elite at 7.98 K/9, and was supported by a league average 8.8% whiff rate. This means that his great K to BB rate was fueled not by an uptick in strikeouts but by an historic refusal to issue free passes - 16 non-intentional walks all season in 2014 - that will simply not repeat. He can maintain sterling control and still issue three times as many walks as he did last year, which will likely end badly for him.
Now that the league knows that Hughes will be stingy with walks, it would be logical to assume that they will be looking to swing against him. This will be problematic for the Minnesota righty, as his stuff is not good enough to beat major league hitters in the strike zone. According to Pitch f/x Pitch Values/100*, Hughes does not have even one significantly above average pitch. His best is a slider that scored 1.30 runs above average per 100 thrown in 2014, but Hughes only threw it 0.7% of the time. The best pitch Hughes uses regularly is a fastball worth 0.99 runs above average, followed by a cutter worth 0.08. That's it for positive values, but not Hughes' arsenal, which also includes a 2 seam fastball (-0.20), new knucklecurve (-0.48), dreadful curve (-2.78), and a thankfully rarely used change (-8.37). Yuck. These numbers are more fitting of a league average arm like Dillon Gee rather than the Clayton Kershaw Hughes pretended to be last year. Hughes isn't Kershaw, and he will not be able to throw nothing but strikes without getting hit hard.
He actually was hit hard last year, allowing an elevated 23.2% line drive rate in keeping with his career norms. He survived this in part due to his freakish control and in part due to HR/FB luck. While improvement in this regard was expected due to the move away from homer happy Yankee Stadium, the stadium switch does not explain the 4% HR/FB Hughes had on the road last season. Indeed, his road performance was significantly better than his work at home (8.5% HR/FB). The only logical conclusion is that luck was a primary driver of his reduced HR/FB. When this corrects in 2015 it will do so with more baserunners on base via hit or walk, leading to ugly stat lines for the Twins ace. The fact that his team was content to do nothing in a division with four viable winners places them as the weakest link in perhaps the best division in all of MLB, which will adversely affect Hughes' win total. Despite a slow start, selling Hughes now is likely the most prudent action.
Steve Pearce, OF, BAL
This guy seemed to come out of nowhere to hit .293 with 21 HR in 383 PAs, but many would say that his minor league performance made those numbers a distinct major league possibility. His minor league record does include some nice seasons, but really nothing that indicates the above as realistic. While he hit 26 HR in the low minors in 2006 and 25 in reduced time there in 2007, he never hit 20 at AAA and only hit 20 across AAA and MLB combined once before last year (exactly 20 in 2008). Part of this has been an inability to stay on the field for 500 PAs (2009 is his most recent season with that many PAs across all levels), but there is no reason for this to improve at age 31. The guy is simply a poor bet to actually play, making him unlikely to achieve strong fantasy counting numbers.
When he did play last year, he benefited greatly from good fortune. His 17.5% HR/FB rate was very high even with a hitter's park to call home, especially when compared to his career 10.8% figure. He also posted a career high in line drive rate (still below league average at 19.4%), which produced a ridiculous .918 BABIP after leaving his bat. Both the number of liners and their ability to drop in for hits figure to regress in 2015, taking his average from good to meh in the process.
Like with Mesoraco, the second half last season provided a sneak peek at what a regressed Pearce will look like. The first half saw a .316 average with 11 HR and an unsustainable .350 BABIP, while the second half saw the Oriole hit .265 with 10 HR and a .286 overall BABIP. HR/FB remained elevated through the season, so the most realistic projection would be a league average average with 15-18 HR given a full season of PAs. Chances are, he will not be able to accumulate that many PAs, so you only get that pace for however many PAs he does manage to record. There are certainly leagues where that has value, but not if you paid for 2014 numbers. If possible, Pearce is another great sell high candidate.
These guys may have won leagues last year, but 2015's Devin Mesoraco, Phil Hughes, and Steve Pearce will probably not be those guys a second time. Instead, someone else will break out, and you will be far better served hunting for that someone than hanging on to last year's hero.
*Pitch Values/100 are a metric that measures how many runs above replacement each pitch in a pitcher's repertoire is worth, normalizing for the frequency each offering is thrown
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