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Kevin analyzes hitter fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts surging for Week 5 of 2026. Are they true breakouts, or fake outs? Read his fantasy baseball outlooks and buys/sells.
Welcome back to another edition of Fantasy Baseball Hitter Breakouts or Fake Outs. Our goal with this article is to continually help you determine whether the players you're picking up and counting on are real or fool's gold. It doesn't matter whether they're a platoon matchup, a switch hitter or even a switch thrower if you want to get crazy (more on that later).
So that's exactly what we'll do for you this week. We'll analyze four hitters who are currently demolishing pitchers, and we'll use the advanced stats to help us find out whether their results are sustainable.
Now let's dive in. This week, we'll evaluate a quartet of young hitters - Angel Martinez, Carlos Cortes, Moises Ballesteros, and Spencer Torkelson. All statistics in this article reflect games played through Monday, April 27th.
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Angel Martinez, OF, Cleveland Guardians
2026 Stats: .860 OPS, 136 OPS+, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 12 R, 5 SB
We broke down fellow Guardian Daniel Schneemann last week, and this week we're here to break down Angel Martinez. He's got the second-highest OPS+ for Cleveland and is trending upwards.
This is easily the best that Martinez has performed at the major league level. But we still have to ask, is this a breakout or a fake-out?
Angel Martínez wins the 11-pitch battle and has himself a 2-homer night 🔥 pic.twitter.com/E3Dogulsug
— MLB (@MLB) April 25, 2026
Martinez's plate approach immediately tells you you're going to see a lot of balls in play when he's up to bat. His 19.1% strikeout rate is slightly improved from last season's 22.7%. His walk rate is down as well, though, to 3.4% from last season's 4.8%.
The walk rate simply needs to get higher so he can help stem the bleeding if he finds himself in a slump. However, walks haven't really been a part of his profile for some time now. When he debuted in 2024, it was up to 8.9% over 169 PAs, but it's dwindled since then.
Part of that is also due to Martinez's high swing percentage. That's sitting at 52.3% while most MLB teams come in around 45% this season. His high chase rate also influences that, but his ability to make contact keeps the strikeout rate low.
Now to the batted ball profile. His ground-ball rate and fly-ball rate are both equally split at 40.0% this season, leaving his line drive rate at 20.0%. That's currently resulting in fewer flyballs and more grounders compared to last season, but the differences aren't drastic enough for me to be all that concerned about.
A solid aspect of his batted ball profile is a 19.2% HR/FB rate. When he's getting it in the air, there's a good chance he's doing some real damage to it.
As we check on BABIP, it's coming in at a .311 number. That's up from his prior two seasons, where .274 was his high. That .274 mark would have pointed to some positive regression, and we're seeing it now. A .311 mark doesn't point to much luck and provides confidence in the current numbers we're seeing.
Now we'll check and see what Baseball Savant has to say. That has him posting a .375 wOBA to go with a .339 xwOBA. While it's predicting negative regression, the .339 xwOBA is still in the 62nd percentile.
CLE - Angel Martínez Solo HR (3)
📏 399 ft | 💨 101.9 mph | 📐 29°
⚾️ 94.4 mph four-seam fastball (HOU - RHP Ryan Weiss)
🏟️ Out in 30/30 MLB parksHOU (0) @ CLE (2)
🔻 2nd#GuardsBall pic.twitter.com/lcpAg5Ekka— MLB Home Runs (@MLBHRs_) April 21, 2026
Part of the reason we are expecting negative regression will be because his hard hit rate (41.8%) and barrel rate (10.4%) sit in the 53rd and 64th percentiles, respectively. Bad? Absolutely not, but they are not the upper echelon.
As we look into the pitch mix that pitchers are attacking him with, we can see one specific pitch that's predicting negative regression and one pitch that's a very clear weakness. But there's also an opportunity for positive regression.
The pitch we're expecting negative regression on is the slider. He sees them at a 13.8% rate and is hitting them for a smoking .568 wOBA. But that's paired with a .336 xwOBA. As far as floors go, that's a decent one to have.
The pitch that's expected to show positive regression is changeups. He's hitting them for just a .225 wOBA, but that's paired with a .359 xwOBA. Although there's positive regression, his 16.7% hard hit rate against them does give me some pause.
The clear weakness that Martinez has is sinkers. He's hitting them for just a .082 wOBA and a .109 xwOBA. Pitchers with a solid sinker will thrive against Martinez.
As a switch-hitter, we also need to mention Martinez's splits. While he's hitting for similar batting averages against both righties and lefties, he has much better power against righties. He's hitting them for a 161 wRC+ compared to just an 88 wRC+ against lefties. With righties being the more common matchup, that's the preferred scenario.
Verdict: While xwOBA is clearly predicting negative regression, I'm not so sure it will be all that harsh a drop. Martinez is making decent contact, and a solid line drive rate is going to help him overcome his league-average hard hit rate.
But again, league average isn't all that bad of a floor. And with more opportunities against righties than lefties, he's going to be in a better position more than not. I've got no issue adding him if you're in need of outfield depth. Ride out the hot streak and cash in where you can. Once it's done, you at least have a league-average hitter you can exploit in certain matchups, which is never a bad thing.
Carlos Cortes, OF, Athletics
2026 Stats: 1.121 OPS, 199 OPS+, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 8 R, 0 SB
I can say with full confidence that Carlos Cortes is the first switch-thrower that I've ever analyzed in any rendition of this article. He's not even the first ambidextrous player for the A's, either, with pitcher Pat Venditte being the most recent A's player who could throw with both arms.
But you don't get fantasy points for that. You do get them for your player absolutely crushing the ball, and Cortes has been delivering. So, after exploding on the scene this well, we have to ask whether Cortes is a breakout or a fake out.
Los is on 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/SCHjgwv0Mj
— Athletics (@Athletics) April 25, 2026
The first thing to notice is that we're seeing even more balls in play than we saw with Martinez. His miniscule 6.0% strikeout rate is much improved from last season's 20.2% rate. The 9.0% walk rate is also greatly improved from last year's 3.0% rate.
I'm loving what I'm seeing with the 9.0% walk rate, especially with the strikeout rate so low. That shows a keen eye for the zone, even if it's just league average. It will help to stabilize those slumps in the future.
As for the strikeout rate, I'd joke that it looks like a number Tony Gwynn would post. But that'd be a lie since he was a 4.2% strikeout rate type of guy. But what Cortes is doing is close!
His batted ball profile does show a bit of change from his 42-game stint last season. He's seeing a sizable increase in ground-ball rate (47.4% vs 38.2% last season) and a sizable decrease in fly-ball rate (29.8% vs 40.8% last season). That's not exactly my favorite thing to see, although his 23.5% HR/FB rate helps make up for it.
His BABIP also looks like he's overachieving, posting a .358 mark this season. But he posted a .347 mark that season that resulted in a 129 OPS+. His time at Triple-A Las Vegas in 2025 also saw a .338 BABIP, so part of this may just be Cortes' profile since he signed with the Athletics organization in late 2024.
But a lot of these questions can be answered by looking at his Baseball Savant page. So let's find out what it says. Immediately, we see a sea of red, always a very great sign.
His .482 wOBA is currently paired with a .467 xwOBA. Sure, we're only looking at 67 PAs here, but that's fantastic to see.
The biggest thing to note is the improvement in hard-hit rate and barrel rate. They're both sitting in the 89th percentile, well above last year's marks that were much closer to league average.
That helps explain the higher BABIP and negates some worries we may have about the increase in grounders. I still want to see more fly balls out of Cortes, but what he's doing for now is working.
As we look at the pitch mix, there's really only one weakness right now and a whole lot more to love. In total, he has five pitches with an xwOBA of .480 or higher. That's a ridiculous floor xwOBA is predicting. It may be ambitious, especially with a smaller sample size, but there's a lot to love.
Los takes off 🚀 pic.twitter.com/SJeDTlhejX
— Athletics (@Athletics) April 21, 2026
The best of the bunch is four-seamers. He's hitting them for a .597 wOBA that's paired with a .620 xwOBA. Safe to say he's seeing them well and is almost always productive when he gets them. They were also a strength of his last season, though not to this degree.
The weakness for the lefty right now is changeups. He's hitting them for a .282 wOBA that's paired with a .270 xwOBA. Pitchers are likely to turn to this more in the future. But as I've mentioned in past articles, changeups almost always need four-seamers as a setup pitch. So it could be a dangerous task for pitchers.
We do have some positive regression coming here, too, for Cortes on sliders. He only hits them for a .180 wOBA, but that's paired with a .335 xwOBA. Give me a league average floor all day, especially with how the rest of his mix looks right now.
Verdict: The only thing that's really concerning me right now is the batted ball profile. I am not a fan of nearly 50% of balls in play ending up on the ground. But at the same time, he's hitting the ball hard, and he's barreling it when it does get in the air.
And with everything else he's providing, it makes Cortes a must-add in all leagues. Currently, he's only on 19% of rosters in Yahoo leagues, so there's a very, very good chance you can snatch him up immediately. Don't wait, get him now and reap the benefits.
Moises Ballesteros, C/DH, Chicago Cubs
2026 Stats: 1.136 OPS, 226 OPS+, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 11 R, 0 SB
The Cubs have been lighting teams up with their bats over the last few weeks. When you think of that lineup, you're thinking of dudes like Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Ian Happ. Even Nico Hoerner has been producing at a high level for the Cubs.
But it's the rookie Ballesteros that's crushing more than all of them, hitting for a ridiculous 226 OPS+. That makes him a very easy target to add in fantasy leagues, but before you do, let's figure out if he's a breakout or a fake out.
Moisés Ballesteros crushes a GRAND SLAM 😳 pic.twitter.com/UNX1qOHT0a
— MLB (@MLB) April 28, 2026
Let's start with the plate approach. He's got an 18.5% strikeout rate that's paired with a 9.2% walk rate. The strikeout rate just about matches what he did last season, while the walk rate is down 4%. But, at a league average mark, I'm not too worried about it.
As we move on to the batted ball profile, we see some major improvements. The ground-ball rate is down from 62.2% to 38.3%, while the fly-ball rate is up from 20.0% to 36.2%. Of course, I'd love to see the fly-ball rate even higher, but with a low ground-ball rate, that means that line drives are coming off the bat at a high rate.
That's currently sitting at 25.5% and matches what he did in Chicago's minor league system in 2024. At Triple-A Iowa in 2025, that rate was at 24.1%. So line drives are a major piece of the package with Ballesteros.
Where the lefty has been really effective in the majors, compared to the minors, is his HR/FB rate. In 2025, it was at 22.2%, and in 2026, it was at 23.5%. So even though that fly-ball rate is low, he's punishing it when he gets it in the air.
Now with a high line drive rate, we need to expect a high BABIP. But what Ballesteros is posting may be beyond unsustainable. That's because it's at a .442 mark. With us generally looking for a .300 mark, we can see this is an obvious area for negative regression. In 2025, this mark sat at .349, which is still a high mark that may be unsustainable.
But xwOBA tells all. So let's find out what it's predicting. It's telling us that his .486 wOBA is certainly overachieving as it's paired with a .375 xwOBA. It should be noted, though, that the .375 xwOBA is still in the 83rd percentile. So we are still expecting a high level of production out of Ballesteros.
He's also posting a 57.4% hard-hit rate, which ranks in the 97th percentile. The barrel rate's in the 81st percentile, but the hard hit rate tells us that the line drives he's getting aren't just lucky floaters. He's at least making himself a tough out no matter what he does.
MOISÉS BALLESTEROS FOR THREE pic.twitter.com/S8Y4ef0k99
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) April 17, 2026
Looking at the pitch mix that pitchers attack him with, there are two areas for obvious negative regression. That would be changeups (.586 wOBA, .355 xwOBA) and sliders (.520 wOBA, .280 xwOBA). The floor for the slider is the only one that's worrisome to me, but it's not terribly bad.
The key weakness will be curveballs. He's only hitting them for a .200 wOBA paired with a .185 xwOBA. They were a weakness last season, too, so I'll expect that to continue.
One pitch he'll continue to rake is four-seamers. His .516 wOBA against them is paired with a .511 xwOBA. Last season, he hit them for a .537 wOBA that was paired with a .476 xwOBA. Pitchers shouldn't even try to throw him four-seamers if they know what's good for them.
Verdict: The floor for Ballesteros is certainly high, with xwOBA predicting he'll still be in the 83rd percentile. He's no doubt going to experience some negative regression from his current levels thanks to an unsustainable BABIP. But how far does he actually drop?
Based on the numbers, I'm not so certain the drop is going to be as steep as xwOBA predicts. He won't stay at an OPS+ above 200, but he's certainly going to be better than his 152 OPS+ from last season with a similar amount of PAs. That's a bit crazy to say, but I see a high-level hitter here that will only get better if the ball gets in the air more.
There's a very good chance that he's available on your waiver wire right now. Snag him up before anyone else does. There's too much potential here to overlook, and the floor is more than desirable.
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
2026 Stats: .836 OPS, 130 OPS+, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 11 R, 0 SB
Here we are with another Tiger. And a name you know, at least a little more than the other three young hitters we've profiled. Torkelson got off to a bit of a slow start in Detroit, but nothing cures a slow start like a week with five homers.
That's got the 26-year-old on many fantasy managers' radars. So let's do the digging and find out if he's a breakout or a fake out.
Spencer Torkelson has homered in FIVE STRAIGHT GAMES! pic.twitter.com/YdafxQQk4f
— MLB (@MLB) April 26, 2026
Torkelson's plate approach looks much different than our other three hitters. They prioritize balls in play while Torkelson's plate appearances generally end in walks or strikeouts. He's posting a 28.0% strikeout rate (26.0% last season) and a 15.9% walk rate (11.1% last season).
He's a perfect example of why we want a high walk rate. When he struggled to open the season, slashing .179/.329/.224 in his first 22 games, he still posted a 17% walk rate. That helped him get more chances to snap out of things, and now he looks to be on the right side of it all.
Now for the batted ball profile, where there aren't really any surprises. He's got a 33.9% ground-ball rate, 49.2% fly-ball rate, and a 16.9% line drive rate. This is largely who he's been since he entered the league. His 17.2% HR/FB rate would be the highest of his career, though that is greatly helped by all of his homers coming in the last week.
His BABIP now sits at .296, a touch higher than his career norms. With it being so close to .300, we can assume what he's done hasn't been to the benefit of any luck.
Now to the Baseball Savant page, and there's quite a bit to like. His .373 wOBA is paired with a .392 xwOBA. Not much positive regression, but positive regression nonetheless. That xwOBA also sits in the 89th percentile, giving us an upper-echelon bat.
Spencer Torkelson WALK-OFF HOMER! pic.twitter.com/vdSvZbvaet
— MLB (@MLB) April 23, 2026
His hard-hit rate sits in the 76th percentile, while his barrel rate is now in the 93rd percentile. This is the highest his hard-hit rate and barrel rate have ever been, a great sign that he's finally seeing the ball very well and crushing it when he gets it.
As we look at the pitch mix, we see three very clear strengths that also have some very high floors. Those would be four-seamers (.460 wOBA, .571 xwOBA), sinkers (.516 wOBA, .495 xwOBA), and sliders (.558 wOBA, .507 xwOBA). Three pitches, all with an xwOBA around .500? Sign me up!
Four-seamers and sinkers were both strengths for Torkelson last season, too, so we should expect those numbers to stay high. If one drops, it'd be sliders, which he didn't exactly struggle against last season but didn't excel against.
The pitch that pitchers will start pivoting to more is the sweeper. He's only hit them for a .200 wOBA and a .101 xwOBA. If they can get to a spot where they can use this against the 26-year-old, then they'll have no hesitation doing so.
Verdict: The only real question about Torkelson's future viability is just how much the current numbers have been influenced by his monster week. They're certainly a bump, but his xwOBA sat at .328 before their series against the Brewers. So, a near 70-point increase thanks to a monster week, but it's also bumped him up to a spot where he looks like he's just having a normal season now.
The high xwOBA still makes him a buy, though. It's so much easier to ride out the hot streak and adjust after, in case he reverts to who he was in early April. I don't think that's going to happen, but better to get the immediate value while you can in case he stays this hot.
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