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Cade Horton 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Seeming Regression Candidate More Trustworthy than Expected
Cade Horton went 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA across 118 innings pitched as a 23-year-old rookie, but his 3.89 xERA and 4.27 xFIP suggest he wasn't anywhere near that good. The primary issue was his 20.4 K%. Horton would probably struggle if his 20.4 K% repeats, but his peripherals support a much higher number. Horton's lowest K% on the farm was 27.2 percent in 18 IP at hitter-friendly Triple-A in 2024, so he has a history of generating punchouts. He also has two wipeout offerings in his slider (19 SwStr%) and change (21.5 percent), with his curve (12.4 percent) and sinker (8 percent) generating solid whiffs last season as well. Horton's heater (4.9 SwStr%) let him down, but its 64.9 Zone%, 95.5 mph average velocity, and 2,485 RPM spin rate suggest upside. His K% should improve in 2026. Likewise, Horton's .258 BABIP was at least partially the result of Chicago's league-leading 36 Outs Above Average. The Cubs should be strong defensively again, so Horton's low BABIP could repeat. The Cubs should provide win opportunities, too, making Horton an exciting upside play at his 191.10 ADP.
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