Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Breakout Candidates: High-Upside Draft Targets for 2026

January 22, 2026

Kyle's high-upside starting pitcher breakout candidates, sneaky 2026 later-round draft values to outperform their ADPs. Draft the next fantasy baseball aces.

Identifying breakout starting pitchers is one of the biggest keys to fantasy baseball, assuming they can stay healthy, of course. Last summer, we saw a resurgent season from Trevor Rogers in his second campaign in Baltimore, along with a handful of rookie hurlers breaking onto the scene.

When evaluating breakout starters for 2026, we'll dig into the mid-to-late rounds (picks 200+) after the core of the roster is in place. We're always searching for the next breakout or the arm to make that one tweak and finally put all the pieces together.

Let's take a look at four pitchers who have shown promising underlying skills and are popping when examining the early ADP landscape.

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Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 206.18

Baz was one of the highlight pieces of one of the more memorable trades in recent memory, with the Pirates sending Baz, Austin Meadows, and Tyler Glasnow to the Rays in exchange for Chris Archer back in 2018. Baz developed into one of the top pitching prospects in baseball in Tampa Bay, but has been up and down at the major league level as he's worked through multiple elbow injuries.

The 26-year-old was involved in another big trade this offseason, staying in the division and heading to the Baltimore Orioles. Baz finally put together a full season in his final year with the Rays, hurling 166 1/3 innings, but allowed a career-high 4.87 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

The right-hander particularly struggled to keep the ball in the park, allowing 26 home runs, tied for the 14th most in the league. The move to a spring training ballpark at George M. Steinbrenner Field proved disastrous for Baz, as he surrendered 18 of those 26 homers at Tampa Bay's temporary home for the 2025 season, the second most among starters last season. He became just the 15th starter in the last five seasons to allow 18 or more bombs at home.

The smaller dimensions of his home ballpark did him no favors, as five of those homers had projected distances under 355 feet, tied for the second-most by a pitcher in a season since 2016.

The underlying skills still present plenty of upside for Baz, and a change of scenery could do wonders for the former top prospect. He boasts a big fastball that averages 97 MPH with an above-average movement profile, one of the highest graded curveballs in the league by Stuff+ (125), a hard changeup, and a new cutter that he added in July of last season.

Baz gradually moved away from the slider that was one of his most-used pitches in the first few years of his career. From July on, after this tweak, Baz posted a 3.61 xFIP, finishing 18th best among starters with at least 75 innings in that time. He ramped up his curveball usage to a career high 26.9%, and it was his most effective secondary offering to both hands (39.3% Whiff% with a .259 xSLG vs. LHH, 24.2% Whiff% with a .336 xSLG vs. RHH).

The fastball isn't as dominant as it once looked, and staying in a tough AL East division isn't ideal, but Baz could be primed for the best year of his career in Baltimore. While command and health have been the main drawbacks, the talent and stuff are there for Baz to be a significant draft-day bargain.

Troy Melton, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 294.62

Melton began the 2025 season at Double-A Erie before eventually finishing the year as one of Detroit's most trusted arms in the playoffs. He posted a dominant 32.4% strikeout rate with a strong 6.4% walk rate in 75 1/3 combined innings at Double-A and Triple-A before earning the call to the bigs.

The rookie right-hander's elite strikeout and walk numbers didn't fully carry over to the highest level as he pitched both in relief and as a starter, but Melton's underlying traits project a promising long-term profile. His end-of-regular-season results were still strong, however, finishing with a 2.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 45 2/3 big league innings.

It's a wide six-pitch mix for Melton, consisting of a four-seamer, cutter, sinker, slider, splitter, and curveball. He threw each offering at least 5% of the time, though it's the quality of each pitch that makes Melton worth monitoring.

Since Stuff+ started being tracked in 2020, only seven rookie pitchers (minimum 45 innings) have debuted with six or more pitch types, carrying an average grade (100) or better. Melton is in solid company with the other names on this list who boasted deep, high-quality pitch arsenals.

After ascending through the minors last season, the 25-year-old Melton should have a good opportunity to be a full-time starter for Detroit in 2026. His fastball sits near 100 MPH, and the splitter proved to be a devastating putaway option at times. After setting a career-high in innings in 2025, Melton could face some workload restrictions early on, but the profile carries plenty of upside later in drafts.

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP: 416.03

Ashcraft is another rookie right-hander who produced another terrific campaign. The 26-year-old ended with a 2.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP mostly as a long-reliever in 69 2/3 innings (eight starts).

Ashcraft relied more on his plus command and ability to induce weak contact to achieve his results. It's a pretty complete five-pitch arsenal with two fastballs (four-seamer, sinker) and two breaking balls (slider, curveball) and a changeup. He threw his breaking ball combination 52% of the time, ending with very respectable strikeout (24.3%) and walk numbers (8.2%).

Braxton Ashcraft's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/ebzicT00WG

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2025

The curveball is one of the best in the league, grading out at 135 Stuff+, the seventh-highest in the league (minimum 60 innings). His fastball didn't overpower hitters or grade out favorably despite its plus velocity (96.7 MPH), coming in at an 86 Stuff+.

The ceiling may not be overly high for Ashcraft, but he locates well and drew a good number of swings and misses (11.9% SwStr%) with a high ground-ball rate (50.8%). That's a solid enough foundation to be usable in the right spots for fantasy purposes.

It remains to be seen if Ashcraft will lock down a permanent spot in the rotation, but there are aspects of his profile that make him an intriguing player to target later in drafts.

Robby Snelling, Miami Marlins

ADP: 524.97

Snelling soared through the upper levels of the minor leagues in 2025, concluding the season with a 2.51 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 23.2% K-BB% in 136 combined innings between Double-A and Triple-A.

The 22-year-old left-hander was promoted to Triple-A Pensacola on July 10 and allowed only 11 runs (nine earned) over 63.2 innings to finish the year. The lefty's fastball sits mid-90s and posted an exceptional 36.5% Whiff% during his time in Triple-A. His arsenal is complemented by two breaking balls in slider and an elite curveball (42.7% Whiff%), along with a changeup and sinker.

Perhaps most importantly, it appears Snelling has a real window to earn a rotation spot after the Marlins recently traded away two starting options in Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers.

Since 2006, there have only been seven starters age 21 or younger to post a 30% strikeout rate or better at Triple-A (minimum 30 innings). The other names on this list underscore the volatility of the profile, although Snelling checks a lot of boxes with the highest SwStr% (14.9%), second-lowest walk rate (6.9%), and second-highest ground-ball rate (47.9%).

It's a pretty well-polished profile for Snelling. His plus command raises his floor at the MLB level, while the ability to consistently draw swings and misses throughout his stops in the minor leagues signals legit upside as well.

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